Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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No wonder Gordon Brown’s close advisers are pressing him to call a general election this autumn. The Populus conference poll for The Times shows that he has already fulfilled two of the three key conditions for winning the next general election, and is within sight of the third. There were big doubts over all three when he became Prime Minister three months ago.
The conditions are: first, to show that he could assume the mantle of prime minister and look convincing in the office; second, that he could offer the right blend of continuity and change from the Tony Blair years; and, third, to persuade voters that Labour is making a real difference to their lives.
On the first, the Populus poll, undertaken on September 7 to 9, demonstrates that Mr Brown has established himself in his own right. More than half the public (53 per cent) agree that he has “succeeded in bringing a real feeling of renewal to the Labour Government”. This includes not only 76 per cent of Labour voters, but also 36 per cent of Tories. And, unlike before June 27, Mr Brown is clearly ahead of David Cameron as the preferred Prime Minister in Populus (by 55 to 36 per cent) and every other poll (54 to 21 per cent in yesterday’s ICM). This is despite clear majorities expressing dissatisfaction with the Government’s record and believing it is time for a change.
On the second, Mr Brown has persuaded voters that there has been no “lurch to the Left”: 73 per cent, including 66 per cent of Tory voters, agree that “it is now clear that the Labour Party is never going to return to being old Labour”.
Voters accept that there is now a new government. But they are not convinced that it has made a real difference, which is why the third condition has not yet been met. Some 86 per cent think the “big change from the Blair era that most people want to see is British troops coming home from Iraq”. (Some of the heat may have been taken out of the issue by the change in the role in British troops in Basra.) And 69 per cent think that Mr Brown should “send clear signals that now he is Prime Minister, Britain will be much less close to America than under Tony Blair”. The poll underlines Labour’s strengths and its vulnerabilities. Labour is now ahead of the Tories as the best party on the NHS (by 39 to 28 per cent); on improving standards in schools (by 39 to 31 per cent); on managing the economy (by 51 to 28 per cent) and on representing Britain’s best interests in the EU (by 41 to 29 per cent). In each case, there has been a marked improvement in Labour’s position in the past year.
However, despite its overall lead, Labour is still behind the Tories on crime and antisocial behaviour (by 28 to 34 per cent), and on immigration and asylum (by 26 to 35 per cent).
The challenge for Mr Brown now is to show that Labour can address these concerns, as he underlined in his letter yesterday to the party’s national executive about policy priorities. So while Mr Brown appeared to be evasive when he insisted in his Sunday AM interview that he was only concerned with the work of government, he is also pursuing the smartest electoral tactic. Getting the governing right is the precondition for winning the election, whether this autumn or later.

Should he, shouldn’t he: going for a snap poll
Pros
— Seize on the bounce created by becoming Prime Minister. The polls may never
be better
— The economic outlook is uncertain in the medium term and Mr Brown
could suffer if it worsened
— He would be exploiting the current disarray in the Conservative Party
and its lack of a clear policy agenda
— He will overshadow the Tory conference unless he rules an election
out. If he announces at the end of this week, the conference will be reduced
to a rump
— Tories will be denied time to spend millions in marginal seats
— Gordon Brown gets his mandate quickly, and if he serves a full term
will be in place for the 2012 Olympics
Cons
— Brown would be the second shortest-serving Prime Minister in history
if the election were held on October 25 and he lost. George Canning, in
1827, served 119 days then died. Brown would have served 120 by October 25
— The onset of darker autumn evenings make it harder to get the core
Labour voters out
— The future of the European constitution is to be set on October 18-19
at an intergovernmental conference
— The Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review are due
imminently
— The reduction in the income tax basic rate does not apply until the
new tax year
— It is estimated that 2 million people go abroad during the half-term
holidays during the last week of October
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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While we all sit up staring like mesmerized rabbits watching our Prime Minister calmly and quietly coping with the biblical crises that the country has had to suffer with. We can only hope that the rumours in circulation will not bear fruit, and that a general election will not be called for October.
Unless there is some thing much worse around the corner, something that will have far reaching connotations for the country, an election will be a huge costly unnecessary affair.
However as political gamesmanship is a honed to the bone
grand art, perhaps an election will catch Ethelred the Unready on the hop, who ever he might be!!!!!! I do not think the country will be in the mood either way.
maggie snook, wool wareham, Dorset UK
I usually like to read the Manifesto published by each political party before deciding where to place my vote. Thus for me, a choice in the past has not necessarily been automatic.
However in the event of an Autumn election this year, the choice should surely be a lot simpler: I would not even consider Labour and there are many like me.
What is the point of reading a Labour Manifesto which is nothing more than a pack of lies? I seem to remember that Labour gave a specific commitment to a referendum on the European Constitution in their last Manifesto. By refusing to honour that, I really cannot see the point even of reading their lastest offering.
Christopher Chadwick, Lechlade, Gloucestershire
The "reduction in the income tax basic rate" is actually a tax increase for most taxpayers, as the 10% starting rate is being increased to 20%. Maybe Brown wants to secure another five years in office before voters receive their April pay slips and notice his deception.
Nick, London,
Incredible... Brown has been at the heart of New Labour which has failed the British people in so many areas of policy and yet people want more of the same! They say that people get the government they deserve... what hope Britain?
Andrew Brown, derby, uk
Brown has not done anyhting to warrant a mandate at this stage.He has like Blair made promises but we have seen all this before.He says he will review cannabis and the gambling laws but so far has done nothing just talk about them.
Under his stewardship as Chancellor he has borrowed billions to shore up his public spending and has wasted billions on welfare cock ups and in the NHS where despiote all the tax incraeses and borrowings there has been little improvement.
With the economy now slowing and the effcet of the credit crunch yet to strike he should stay in place and then we can see what he si made of.
malcolm hill, Welwyn Garden City, England
Brown & Co; have an inherent weakness that they refuse to address. The fact that they ignore the urgency of the pensions debacle shows that they only govern by ignorance. Pensioners, - all of them - need urgent increases, they will not keep up with price increases without them.
Coal mining communities are consistently being robbed of pension money because of Government greed and lies, and by refusing to address the pensioners plight in general, this Governent? seriously undermines it s own credibility.
Mick Westwood.
Mick Westwood, Burntwood, Staffordshire., United Kingdom
Whilst I agree that there would be an element of opportunism if Mr Brown were to call an autumn election, I'm afraid that I have to disagree on the point about Mr Blair serving a full term (or not as is the case). Mr Blair was elected in 2005 to serve a full term of Government as the head of the Labour party. Mr Brown has not even been elected as leader of the Labour party so why he beleives he has a mandate to run the country is beyond me. So, in my opinion, he should have called an election the day he came into office!
Also, I would like the opportunity to vote on the EU Constitution (or Treaty, whichever the Government want to call it today). We were promised it by the Labour party in their 2005 manifesto and if Mr Brown is to be beleived he wants "to listen to the British People" when making key decisions. Well Mr Brown, why arent you asking us about this?!
John, Birmingham, UK
So the smell of power is very potent.
Listening to the zealouts and watching the tears from Kinnock and co, we know not much has changed .
Unless there is something which is not for our ears yet,but is a factor in urging on the PM to have an early election, do not put more stress on the general public, because politics has left alot of us cold and suffering financially and more fearful for the general dissarray of the running of the country.
Gordon does remind me of a very wily Harold Wilson though.
It is still old labour in new clothes .
maggie snook, wool wareham, Dorset UK
If Mr Brown really thinks that by going early he can destroy the Conservative party then he is not a true democrat.The country needs an effective opposition and does not want to become a one party state.
There is no need for an expensive Election less than half way through the 5 year term.
Paul Eadie, Northwich, Cheshire
Labour promises a focus health and the health service. What have they been up to the last 10 years ? This is simply Labours way of continuing to poor billions into a failed institution, the like of which exists nowhere else on the globe. Middle income earners who pay for this white elephant through personal and business taxes will not be hoodwinked again since they have nothing to gain and a lot (of money ) to lose. Roll on an insurance based, independant health system that really does cater to customer needs.
James , Horsham, UK
It really won't matter which of the Establishment parties wins the next General Election. Neither of the two main parties acknowledges that mass immigration poses other than a possible strain on services. The plain fact that England in particular is being transformed by an unprecedented movement of peoples into this country and a huge exodus of native Englishmen out of it, is not a matter of concern to our lookalike leaders. Concern and anger at these huge changes will not be assauged by building millions of houses and snuffing out the last echoes of England. Identity and the sense of belonging are visceral instincts; they arise from the ancient association of a national people and their national home. The indifference of the old parties to these feelings, and the belief that they can be bought off with improved services, will oblige British voters to look elsewhere for leaders who understand their fears and will do something about them.
david lovibond, devizes, wiltshire
Who are the idiots that get polled? There seems to be a glut of moronic Labour voters in the UK.
Education - every (state) school leaver now satisfactorily as stupid as the next and prime Labour voting material.
NHS - little improved for the billions spent.
Pensions - stolen
Gold reserves - sold cheaply
European Vote - promised then denied
Crime - much worse
Public Transport - more expensive and still rubbish
Motorists - persecuted by the police and the taxman.
War - 2 started. Non finished.
Defence- Services sent to war then defence spending cut.
Corruption and lies- standard practice
Public sector- millions of non-jobs and their pensions paid for by the taxpayer
Immigration- at dangerous levels
Asylum - we protect terrorists from justice.
Prisons - overflowing
Sentences- derisory for serious crimes
Compensation culture - a joke
etc etc etc.
A change is needed, good or bad. Get rid of this cancer.
David Thijm, Stourbridge, UK
What has Brown done so far - except some successful publicity stunts and verbal 'window-dressing'? The various crises which hit Britain during the summer months were dealt with by the respective emergency services and institutions and have little to do with government management. Why, for example, lure voters by promising a U-turn on 24-hour-drinking instead of getting it done right away?
A. Schelberg, Germany,
We don't need a general election until 2010. Labour has a large majority and can implement Brown's programme. We all knew before the 2005 election that Blair would stand down during the Parliament for Brown. It would be scandalous opportunism to try and cut and run and if he does Brown deserves to be punished. I have not voted Conservative in a general election since 1970 but would be so angry with Brown for calling an unnecessary early poll, I would happily vote Tory in my marginal Labour seat.
Graham, Harrow, UK