Click here for full details of the Times Party Conference poll

No wonder Gordon Brown’s close advisers are pressing him to call a general election this autumn. The Populus conference poll for The Times shows that he has already fulfilled two of the three key conditions for winning the next general election, and is within sight of the third. There were big doubts over all three when he became Prime Minister three months ago.

The conditions are: first, to show that he could assume the mantle of prime minister and look convincing in the office; second, that he could offer the right blend of continuity and change from the Tony Blair years; and, third, to persuade voters that Labour is making a real difference to their lives.

On the first, the Populus poll, undertaken on September 7 to 9, demonstrates that Mr Brown has established himself in his own right. More than half the public (53 per cent) agree that he has “succeeded in bringing a real feeling of renewal to the Labour Government”. This includes not only 76 per cent of Labour voters, but also 36 per cent of Tories. And, unlike before June 27, Mr Brown is clearly ahead of David Cameron as the preferred Prime Minister in Populus (by 55 to 36 per cent) and every other poll (54 to 21 per cent in yesterday’s ICM). This is despite clear majorities expressing dissatisfaction with the Government’s record and believing it is time for a change.

On the second, Mr Brown has persuaded voters that there has been no “lurch to the Left”: 73 per cent, including 66 per cent of Tory voters, agree that “it is now clear that the Labour Party is never going to return to being old Labour”.

Voters accept that there is now a new government. But they are not convinced that it has made a real difference, which is why the third condition has not yet been met. Some 86 per cent think the “big change from the Blair era that most people want to see is British troops coming home from Iraq”. (Some of the heat may have been taken out of the issue by the change in the role in British troops in Basra.) And 69 per cent think that Mr Brown should “send clear signals that now he is Prime Minister, Britain will be much less close to America than under Tony Blair”. The poll underlines Labour’s strengths and its vulnerabilities. Labour is now ahead of the Tories as the best party on the NHS (by 39 to 28 per cent); on improving standards in schools (by 39 to 31 per cent); on managing the economy (by 51 to 28 per cent) and on representing Britain’s best interests in the EU (by 41 to 29 per cent). In each case, there has been a marked improvement in Labour’s position in the past year.

However, despite its overall lead, Labour is still behind the Tories on crime and antisocial behaviour (by 28 to 34 per cent), and on immigration and asylum (by 26 to 35 per cent).

The challenge for Mr Brown now is to show that Labour can address these concerns, as he underlined in his letter yesterday to the party’s national executive about policy priorities. So while Mr Brown appeared to be evasive when he insisted in his Sunday AM interview that he was only concerned with the work of government, he is also pursuing the smartest electoral tactic. Getting the governing right is the precondition for winning the election, whether this autumn or later.

Should he, shouldn’t he: going for a snap poll

Pros
— Seize on the bounce created by becoming Prime Minister. The polls may never be better
— The economic outlook is uncertain in the medium term and Mr Brown could suffer if it worsened
— He would be exploiting the current disarray in the Conservative Party and its lack of a clear policy agenda
— He will overshadow the Tory conference unless he rules an election out. If he announces at the end of this week, the conference will be reduced to a rump
— Tories will be denied time to spend millions in marginal seats
— Gordon Brown gets his mandate quickly, and if he serves a full term will be in place for the 2012 Olympics

Cons

— Brown would be the second shortest-serving Prime Minister in history if the election were held on October 25 and he lost. George Canning, in 1827, served 119 days then died. Brown would have served 120 by October 25
— The onset of darker autumn evenings make it harder to get the core Labour voters out
— The future of the European constitution is to be set on October 18-19 at an intergovernmental conference
— The Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review are due imminently
— The reduction in the income tax basic rate does not apply until the new tax year
— It is estimated that 2 million people go abroad during the half-term holidays during the last week of October

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