Forget talk of an October election. If there is to be a contest this autumn it will almost certainly be on November 1 or 8, the first in that month since 1935. Whether there is one then is still in the balance.

Talk to any two Cabinet ministers and you will get three different opinions: go for it now, wait until next spring and play it long. Some worry about the impact of the long winter evenings on the turnout of Labour supporters, others dismiss these fears as irrelevant. You can take your pick. But what has become clearer is the process of decision-making. Over the next few days Gordon Brown will complete consultations about party opinion, the state of organisation and the views of MPs defending marginal seats, most of whom are keen for an early contest. Labour strategists believe that the underlying polling trends on leadership and competence are in their favour, but they want to see a longer run of voting intention evidence. All recent polls point in the same direction, though last night’s YouGov poll for Channel 4 News probably exaggerates the Labour lead.

Mr Brown is unlikely to call an election next week, during the Conservative Party conference. According to his close allies, an election announcement then could seem partisan and unfair. This is not high-mindedness but calculation. Labour strategists also hope that a fractious Tory conference could help them.

An election has to be called by next Tuesday at the latest if voting is to be on October 25. By law there have to be 23 days, including weekends, between the dissolution of Parliament and polling day. That is why the focus has shifted to November.

Moreover, Mr Brown is said to want to face Parliament. This is not legally necessary because dissolution can be by royal proclamation. However, as part of his constitutional reform plan, he proposed that MPs should vote on the dissolution and calling of an election. The necessary procedural changes have not yet been agreed by MPs, but it would be odd not to honour the spirit of this suggestion.

Mr Brown wants to make his promised statement on Iraq, and it would be odd for Labour to go to the country without Alistair Darling delivering at least a version of his Comprehensive Spending Review. The centrepiece will be the increase in health spending for the next three years. A statement is also required next month to permit the necessary statutory consultations and advance notice over the grants to devolved bodies and local councils. Mr Darling left the conference yesterday to return to a heavy workload at the Treasury. He also wants to make an early statement about the aftermath of the Northern Rock affair.

The one thing that has changed is that Mr Brown recognises that he has to make a definite statement one way or the other. One of Mr Brown’s allies argues that the safe option may be to go now, and the risky one to wait. Will Mr Brown look the leader for the future? Will David Cameron be able to regroup, give his party fresh direction, and emerge as a stronger competitor? No wonder all prime ministers agonise over election timing.

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