The postponement of the general election has one benefit, at least for pro-Europeans. It is now likely that any EU reform treaty will be ratified by Parliament, and be out of the way, well before an election in 2009 or 2010.

Gordon Brown was not, of course, saying that yesterday when José Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission, visited 10 Downing Street. He was in intransigent mood, insisting that British interests would be safeguarded. Or as he put it: “If we achieve our red lines, we would not need to veto the treaty.”

Mr Brown will not agree to any deal which does not fulfil his stated pre-conditions, opt-outs, opt-ins, emergency brake etc on social security, criminal justice, home affairs, foreign policy and the protocol on the charter of rights.

Mr Brown may not even reach a deal next week but instead continue the argument until the Brussels EU summit in two months. Such political theatre is necessary. He has to persuade other EU leaders that he has no leeway on the “red-lines”, while convincing domestic opinion that he is not a soft touch.

Virtually any deal will still be denounced as a sell-out by the Conservatives and sceptic groups, and they will call for Mr Brown to honour Labour’s 2005 manifesto promise on a referendum. That will not happen, because ministers think they would lose.

The Government will argue that the reform treaty is not the same as the old constitution, and that the draft affecting Britain is different from the version covering the rest of the EU because of the “red lines”. That case can be defended but is unlikely to persuade much uncommitted opinion.

If there had been an election next month, or next spring, the referendum row could have damaged Labour. But with no election likely for at least 18 months, there is plenty of time for the necessary ratification legislation to go through Parliament. The bill will be debated endlessly on the floor of the Commons, including no doubt an amendment proposing a referendum. There is a paradox here, since many of the most vociferous advocates of a referendum are doing so in the name of the sovereignty of Parliament, which would be bypassed by such a ballot.

Although a number of Labour Eurosceptics back such a call, a few Tories and most Liberal Democrats will probably oppose any referendum amendment. So after a long haul, the bill should become law by this time next year.

Sceptic groups will promise to carry on the fight. But ministers hope that the heat will largely have gone out of the row by then and that calls for a referendum will have little popular resonance by spring 2009. The polls show that, while a clear majority of the public back a referendum and oppose the reform treaty, Europe is not a high priority issue for most.

As Mr Barroso argued in a speech in Oxford last night, the reform treaty, to adapt EU institutions for enlargement, are a necessary preliminary to ensure that the union can handle globalisation. Strong central institutions and rules are needed to make markets work. In order to move on to key debates about liberalisation, the environment and the like, decisions over the treaty have to be resolved. There is now a chance to do so, and to allow Britain to play a more positive role in the EU.

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