Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Sir Menzies Campbell is the first victim of Gordon Brown’s decision to delay an election. Whatever the suddenness of last night’s dramas, his long-term position became unsustainable once an election was put off until next year or later, when Sir Menzies would have been 68 or 69. Speculation was fuelled by the fall in the party’s poll ratings.
By going now, he offers his party the chance of relaunching under a younger leader, to fight off the squeeze from Gordon Brown and David Cameron. Such a resignation was just what the Tories were dreading because their recent rise in the polls has come mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems.
Time was never on the Lib Dem leader’s side. It was not that he did anything wrong as leader: he stabilised and rallied the party in the turmoil after Charles Kennedy’s resignation in January last year. A charming and cultivated figure, he promoted a number of younger MPs and encouraged a rethinking of policy that had been largely absent in the Kennedy era. Under his leadership, the Lib Dems have produced wide ranging plans on shaking up the tax system to increase taxes on pollution and cut those on income. Indeed, some of their proposals, on aircraft duty and inheritance tax, were taken up by Alistair Darling last Tuesday.
Throughout his 18 months in charge, however, Sir Menzies battled against a public image of being too old and out of touch, unfair though this appeared to many colleagues. His rating in the polls was always much lower than the other party leaders and Mr Kennedy. He could never change that perception. While most of his MPs would have accepted him staying on to fight an election this autumn or next May, the situation looked very different once the date had been put off until 2009 at the earliest. He would then have been near his 70th birthday. The high drama yesterday will stir recriminations like those of early last year. There were signs last night that allies of Chris Huhne, 53, a strong candidate 18 months ago and champion of the green agenda, were being blamed by some MPs who want to stop him from taking over. Nick Clegg, a personable 40-year-old, will be portrayed as the right leader to take on Mr Cameron in southern England, where the Tories are mounting a strong challenge to many Lib Dem MPs.
There is little ideological difference between the two former MEPs, who believe that the party needs a green and libertarian agenda. The battle is likely to be more about personalities, with Mr Huhne presenting himself as the anti-establishment challenger, while Mr Clegg is seen as more the candidate of the party establishment and leadership.
There may be other candidates, including possibly Steve Webb from the party’s more radical wing, but talk of a return by Mr Kennedy will attract virtually no support. Even though a new leader should have 18 months to make his mark, the sight of two brutal departures and leadership battles in a short period is bound to affect the party’s image.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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