It will be a long and often tedious haul but Gordon Brown should win parliamentary approval for the new European reform treaty without too much trouble. But Westminster is only one of three tests: the other two are with the media and the public.

Parallels with the debilitating 14-month battle in 1992-93 which the Major Government waged over the Maastricht treaty are misleading. Admittedly, the new Bill will be debated on the floor of the Commons and take up a lot of time. Ministers have already allocated more than 20 sitting days, both to demonstrate that it is being subject to full scrutiny and to exhaust all but the most diehard opponents. (The Maastricht Bill took up 29 days in the Commons and 14 in the Lords.)

However, despite his recent troubles, Mr Brown is in a much stronger political position. Labour’s working majority in the Commons is 69, more than three times the Tories’ margin then. That should allow ministers to control the passage of the Bill which the Major Government could not.

Professor Philip Cowley of Nottingham University, the leading chronicler of revolts, believes that the number of Labour rebels may be smaller than many people think, 40 at most. “Whilst there may be one or two (relatively) close votes, we can’t see how there will be any defeats – and for the most part we suspect the Government will get this through relatively easily.”

The key vote will be on a referendum. There will be a sizeable Labour revolt, but most of the 63 Liberal Democrat MPs will not back the call since the party favours a referendum only on UK membership of the EU, not on the treaty. This was confirmed by Nick Clegg. Kenneth Clarke and a few Tory MPs will also not vote for a referendum. These cross-currents should ensure that it is defeated.

This trench warfare will be against the background of vocal press campaigns. However, both the media and politicians overestimate the influence of even mass-selling tabloids: The Sun does not decide elections, and Mr Brown should not worry too much about its sabre-rattling and cries of surrender.

The polls do show overwhelming support for a referendum and a clear majority against a treaty. But, according to the most recent Ipsos/MORI poll, Europe ranks 14th in the list of important issues facing Britain, mentioned by 4 per cent of voters. The details of the treaty are only likely to animate passionate Euro-sceptics. The more potent issue will be “trust”, over charges that Mr Brown is breaking his promise. The Tories believe that this could cause lasting damage.

However, the Government hopes that the heat will have gone out of the row for all but the most committed by the time an election is called in 2009 or 2010. The legislation will have passed and the treaty will probably be in force throughout the EU. Will the Tories try to reopen the issue then by promising a referendum and withdrawal from the treaty? This could divide the Tories by opening up the whole question of Britain’s membership of the EU, as some Euro-sceptic MPs want.

Mr Brown’s firm decision to press ahead with the treaty will mean a long defensive battle with the Tories and the sceptic press. But it is a necessary battle and one he can win.

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