The Conservatives are in danger of becoming cocky and overconfident. Yesterday’s focus by David Cameron on the non-general election of November 1 exposed the Tories’ own shortcomings as much as the Government’s many weaknesses. That is apart from the irony of celebrating the cancellation of an event which Tory leaders never wanted, and which was a tactical coup for them to have halted.

Of course, Gordon Brown and his advisers are badly bruised. Their credibility has been undermined, and are back to square one, as they recognise. Conventional opinion, which praised everything Mr Brown did in July, has now moved too far in the opposite direction. Hence, even sensible policy shifts, as on capital gains tax, are presented in a bad light. The Government has certainly made many errors, such as the now cancelled idea to reallocate the surplus funds of schools, while the conflicting, and ever-rising, figures on foreign workers have looked shambolic, even if the real policy issues are different, as raised yesterday by local government leaders.

The Brown team may appear “constantly buffeted around by events”, as Mr Cameron said. But well-made charges of incompetence do not yet amount to the shift in the tide of ideas which he claimed was starting to be seen. This is not just because Mr Brown has plenty of time to recover, but more because the Tories do not yet have a coherent alternative.

The list in yesterday’s advert of “services” delayed until the next Conservative Government raises more questions than it answers. The pledge to stop “NHS cuts” is as specious as Labour’s “10, 9, 8 . . . days to save the NHS” propaganda before the 1997 election. Spending on the NHS is rising, and will continue to do so. There has obviously been mismanagement of, for example, GP contracts. But there have been no cuts. Taken literally, the Tory pledge means extra spending.

The same is true of a new border police force and ending the early release of prisoners. It is nonsense to say these can be financed in the short term by cancelling the ID cards scheme. And that is leaving aside promises to give the Armed Forces the equipment they need. It all costs money. No wonder blogging sites, such as conservativehome, are questioning the Tory commitment to match Labour spending plans.

On taxes, George Osborne has insisted that any cuts will be offset by increases, though some of the party conference pledges have, at least partially, been matched by the Government’s own promises. Moreover, the Blackpool package does not amount to a tax policy. The pledge on “taxing pollution, not families” is so vague as to be meaningless.

Mr Cameron is not going to unveil all his thinking now, nor should he. We have been promised announcements over the next few months on NHS accountability, greater choice of schools, welfare reform and prisons. But that is precisely the point. The Tory leader needs to be clearer about the role of the state. His party is currently in a strong tactical position. But the strategic battle is far from decided.

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