Peter Riddell: Analysis
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We are almost back to square one. Gordon Brown has been damaged, but there is all to play for between the two main parties. The new Populus poll, done over the weekend, suggests that the volatility of the party conference season has worn off.
In the spring, seasoned analysts were saying that, after the Brown takeover, clear trends would not be apparent until November. Labour is now on 37 per cent against the Tories on 36 per cent; the slight difference solely reflecting rounding since a shift of two people would have left them tied. Changes since the last poll a month ago almost entirely reflect a four-point recovery by the Liberal Democrats up to 16 per cent. This is presumably the result of the publicity and hopes associated with the current contest for the Lib Dem leadership.
Populus concludes that all three parties may be returning to their broad levels of support before the transition to Mr Brown and this autumn’s feverish poll movements. The latest figures are the same as in June, though in the interim, the monthly average for the Tories went down from 36 to 33, and up to 40 per cent, with Labour up from 36 to 40 and now back down to 38 per cent, or less.
On a longer-term comparison, Tory support now is almost the same as throughout Mr Cameron’s leadership. The only real difference is to Labour’s advantage with its rating higher now than its 32 per cent average between April 2006 and June 2007, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems. So much for Tory hopes that a turning point has been passed in voter attitudes.
However, Labour, and Mr Brown, cannot just brush aside the on-off election episode. It has seriously hit his image. On every measure, Mr Brown’s rating has slipped while Mr Cameron’s has improved, narrowing the gap sharply. For instance, the number believing that Mr Brown has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister has dropped by five points over the past month to 49 per cent, with Mr Cameron up three points at 40 per cent. Only two months ago the gap was 59 to 30 per cent.
The same trends are apparent elsewhere: Mr Brown is ahead of Mr Cameron but the two are converging, on, for instance, understanding problems faced by ordinary people. The public is much less optimistic about the Brown premiership. Admittedly, he is still favoured as Prime Minister over the Tory leader by 52 to 36 per cent, but this is less than before. While Mr Brown has lost most of the personal bounce he enjoyed in the midsummer, the voters do not yet embrace Mr Cameron as the alternative. Only a third think that he offers a “clear vision of what he’d do in office”, with more than a half disagreeing. There is plenty of work for both leaders to do.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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As neither Labour nor the consvative party reflect public oppinion I can see a hung parliament with a sprinklng of lib dem, ukip and maybe a BNP or two.
preddo53, leeds, UK
As a real Conservative Peter, I can tell you I back him. I am not a "traditionalist"[in contrast with SOME of my friends/family who tend to be a tad older ], but I can tell you he has never commanded such a high level of respect as he does now. DC has shown levels of courage under pressure that none expected. He is their young man "at the front" and they are willing him on. He has won over not just hearts, but minds aswell.
He may still make mistakes and the Tory Party will still have the odd wobble as a result [ years and years in opposition do that to you]. But the grumblings are always made too much of, usually by people who have a vested interest in exaggerating them or by those who want them to be true.
I believe Mr Cameron has also found a new respect for the grassroots. He is not as out of touch with them as the traditionalists once thought and they are alot more liberal and open-minded than he thought.
I suspect we are more in agreement about our man than the others are.
Sally C, York, Yorks.
Peter - any thoughts perhaps on the other polls all showing the Tories 5-8 points ahead of Labour? I see you omit these from your analysis and concentrate on the one pollster to consistently come out for Labour...
Bob Sykes, Burnley, UK
I doubt many real Conservatives will back Cameron. He had to be dragged kicking and screaming to support Conservative policies and has in recent speeches shown support for his old pink and green policies. The Conservative Party will have to get rid of him.
Peter, London,
What is the matter with people - Labour's tenure in office has been one of incompetence and betrayal! Brown has no solutions for the major problems facing this country, including immigration which is a problem of his Government's making.
Richard, Worcester, England
Give Bruce a knighthood, his services and genuine dedication to lifting peoples hearts in unpresidented in british entertainment
les, st helier, jersey
Edwin T: 0% of the electorate backed Macmillan between 1957 and 1959, Douglas Home 1963-4,Callaghan 1976-9 and Major 1990-92. If you want to change the constitution then say so (perhaps we could start with electoral reform) but don't pretend, as so many people are doing now, that something new has happened since Blair resigned..
JOHN, SHEFFIELD, UK
I have no doubt the no-vote-party would again come top of the polls.
Andrew Smith, Epping, UK
@Edwin T: "0% of the electorate have so far backed Brown" - not quite true in that a few people in his own constituency have explicitly backed him, but granted not as PM. But then, nobody has backed any of the other party leaders as PM either as neither Cameron nor Campbell notr whoever replaces him were in post at the last general election. Which leads us back to that old saw that we have a parliamentary democracy and we don't directly elect PMs.
Marcus Cotswell, London, UK
Post-1945 electoral history suggests that the four consecutive wins for the Tories under Thatcher and Major were an aberration for which the Conservatives paid a heavy price by suffering their worst-ever defeat in 1997. Three consecutive wins for any party should be as much as they can expect in a democracy largely based on the two-party system. Consequently, Gordon Brown will most likely turn out to be to Tony Blair what James Callaghan was to Harold Wilson, the inheritor of a government which lost the subsequent election. But that all depends on "events, dear boy, events," so David Cameron shouldn't necessarily expect to be posing in front of Number 10 in a year or so's time, not by any manner of means.
K Philips, London, UK
Personally, I think the electorate consider both Labour and Conservative parties as a choice between two evils. Neither reflects public opinion or aspirations and both seem equally incompetent at ever achieving it. My vote will go elsewhere.
Oxford Don, Oxford, UK
I very much doubt that any change in the polls for the Lib Dems is a result of their leadership contest. This has received very little press (although it has achieved some, and therefore is an improvement in Lib Dem terms). More likely is simply the normal pattern of politics: the Lib Dems are the party to whom people turn when they do not like either of the other two, only ever an alternative, never the first choice. Improved Lib Dem poll ratings on that analysis are therefore an indictment of the other parties.
John Scott, Cambridge,
Yes, but 0% of the electorate have so far backed Brown. And we all await the opportunity with bated hostility.
Edwin Thornber, Bucharest,