We are almost back to square one. Gordon Brown has been damaged, but there is all to play for between the two main parties. The new Populus poll, done over the weekend, suggests that the volatility of the party conference season has worn off.

In the spring, seasoned analysts were saying that, after the Brown takeover, clear trends would not be apparent until November. Labour is now on 37 per cent against the Tories on 36 per cent; the slight difference solely reflecting rounding since a shift of two people would have left them tied. Changes since the last poll a month ago almost entirely reflect a four-point recovery by the Liberal Democrats up to 16 per cent. This is presumably the result of the publicity and hopes associated with the current contest for the Lib Dem leadership.

Populus concludes that all three parties may be returning to their broad levels of support before the transition to Mr Brown and this autumn’s feverish poll movements. The latest figures are the same as in June, though in the interim, the monthly average for the Tories went down from 36 to 33, and up to 40 per cent, with Labour up from 36 to 40 and now back down to 38 per cent, or less.

On a longer-term comparison, Tory support now is almost the same as throughout Mr Cameron’s leadership. The only real difference is to Labour’s advantage with its rating higher now than its 32 per cent average between April 2006 and June 2007, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems. So much for Tory hopes that a turning point has been passed in voter attitudes.

However, Labour, and Mr Brown, cannot just brush aside the on-off election episode. It has seriously hit his image. On every measure, Mr Brown’s rating has slipped while Mr Cameron’s has improved, narrowing the gap sharply. For instance, the number believing that Mr Brown has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister has dropped by five points over the past month to 49 per cent, with Mr Cameron up three points at 40 per cent. Only two months ago the gap was 59 to 30 per cent.

The same trends are apparent elsewhere: Mr Brown is ahead of Mr Cameron but the two are converging, on, for instance, understanding problems faced by ordinary people. The public is much less optimistic about the Brown premiership. Admittedly, he is still favoured as Prime Minister over the Tory leader by 52 to 36 per cent, but this is less than before. While Mr Brown has lost most of the personal bounce he enjoyed in the midsummer, the voters do not yet embrace Mr Cameron as the alternative. Only a third think that he offers a “clear vision of what he’d do in office”, with more than a half disagreeing. There is plenty of work for both leaders to do.

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