Peter Riddell: Analysis
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
For once, talk of a collapse in confidence is not an exaggeration. The new Populus poll for The Times makes awful reading for Gordon Brown. In September, when the Northern Rock affair erupted, voters were prepared to give Mr Brown and Alistair Darling the benefit of the doubt. Now, after the Revenue & Customs files debacle, they are not. What is worse, people have become more pessimistic about the economy.
Three caveats. First, the poll was a quickie, done on one evening, Wednesday. It is like measuring an earthquake as it is happening. The position will be different when the dust has settled. But there is still likely to be lasting damage to Mr Brown and Labour. Secondly, the poll was done online, in contrast to the usual telephone polls. But any difference should not affect the broad, very clear, trends (for more, see www.populus.co.uk).
Thirdly, a possible football effect. More than half the sample was done after England lost against Croatia, and they were distinctly gloomier about the economy (by 5 to 8 points) than those questioned before the match. There are parallels with the alleged impact of England’s defeat in the 1970 World Cup on Labour’s subsequent election loss.
Unlike many political events, the files row has had a big impact. Just 18 per cent dismiss it as a one-off incident, while 73 per cent say it has undermined their confidence in the Government’s ability to handle confidential data. Some 64 per cent say it calls into question “the basic competence of the Government”.
The number viewing Labour as competent has fallen from 56 to 26 per cent in almost three months. While three fifths previously backed ID cards, 55 per cent now favour scrapping them, and just 29 per cent favour going ahead.
The number trusting the Brown-Darling team to handle any economic problems has more than halved from 61 per cent in early September to 28 per cent now. Trust in David Cameron and George Osborne has risen from 27 to 34 per cent, with neither/don’t knows jumping from 12 to 37 per cent. While the number regarding Labour as honest and principled has fallen from 37 to 20 per cent, the Tory rating is down from 34 to 26 per cent. This points to a broader disillusionment with all politicians.
But, crucially, the public has become more pessimistic about the economy. For more than four years, a clear majority believed that the economy would do well over the next year, both generally and for them and their families. But there has been a dramatic turnaround, with a clear majority now pessimistic. In March 56 per cent believed the economy would do well in the following year and 36 believed it would fare badly. In September the percentages were 53 to 45; now they have reversed to 34 to 55 per cent. This reflects not just the files fiasco, but also Northern Rock, the credit crunch, talk of falling house prices and an economic slowdown.
Mr Darling can console himself that, despite all this, just 44 per cent say he should lose his job, with 40 per cent behind him. But the row is not going to end quickly.
The problem is that, once a reputation for competence is lost, it is hard to regain. And if faith in economic stability, the pillar of Mr Brown’s standing, is shaken over the long term, then Labour is in deep, and possibly irreversible, trouble.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
events, dear boy, events
peter codner, devizes, england
Of course the poll ratings in this case didn't have very far to fall before they reached rock bottom. The public perception of Gordon Brown, who has inherited the unopular Bair image, but without an appealing personality to accompany it, appears to be such that it is unlikely the poll ratings will rise very far in the next few years. There are too many deeply unpopular measures being taken and, despite attempts to keep them quiet, the public are not silly - as the politicians appear to think we are.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
Who was it who put, stupidity, incompetence and lack of moral backbone into the job descriptions of politicians? Don't feel special you poms aren't the only ones to suffer..... I wonder who really is running things
Udo , melbourne, Australia
A change of Government ?
The opposition parties lack people with little experience of life as we know it,
Bernard Parke, GUILDFORD,
The poll ratings didn't have to fall far to reach rock bottom. Gordon Brown has inherited, and is trying to build upon, all the policies which ultimately led to the resignation of his predecessor. The problem is he has the same policies as Blair, but with no personality and, unfortunately, a rather sinister appearance. Prime Ministers who attain the position by default should really have to call a General Election within 12 months - this one appears to have missed his chance.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
Analysis: it's better to measure the earthquake whilst it's happening
On a less pretentious note, i still don't know why anyone would the tories in. They will inherit this economy which has had it's booms, we all know what the conservatives will do and if it happens in a recession there will be huge problems for years. You just can't expect people to have no money and stimulate an economy. Vote the tories, it will be last time they will ever be in government
mark, bradford,
I have the feeling that the longer that Gordon Brown and Labour cling to power the worse their position is going to be.They have no vision,no clear understanding of what needs to be done and worse of all are in total denial of what mistakes they have made.
They have always struck as being like children in a sweet shop,they had to stick their dirty fingers into everything and contaminate what was left.They have been doing this for 10 years and only now after their spin is longer believed,the media are waking up to the damage.
Nigel Wheatcroft, Wimbledon,
One of the main reasons that Britain has parliamentary elections is to allow a free and fair competition to elect its leader: This allows the British public to scrutinise potential leader in several formats of interview, debate and finally election.
Brown is a usurper, he has neither faced the public with a general election or a competitive election inside his own party. The last time some one grabbed power in Britain like this, his name was Prince John.
So how could anyone in their right mind 'trust' a Prime Minister who has maniplulated his way into his position using other people's mandate? If there was a poll: 'would you trust a prime minister that has not been elected?' one might find that 95% of the population want Brown out.
The problem is not just Labour, New Labour or Old Labour, it is Brown and his co-putchists that is causing the British to desert the government.
GENERAL ELECTION now!! Each day Brown spends in power is stolen and is an attack on democracy.
Zen, London,
No one can be surprised at the current fiasco over lost data files We've had 10 years of incompetence at the top. Having now got the top job,' Brown also wants to be Chancellor and Foreign Secretary as he has no confidence in his colleagues. None of Labours 'ministers' have ever had a real job so why should we expect them to run anything properly.
Our health service, transport, immigration and pensions systems are in total chaos Add to that the shameful way in which our armed forces are being treated you have a picture of a Government that has totally lost the plot.
They should go and go now.
Pete Byrne, Edinburgh,
With all the blunders that are associated with the current government, can Mr Brown actually accept responsibility that as he is HEAD of the Government he is RESPONSIBLE for their conduct and failures, and not 'pass the buck' to junior members who are as expendable as pawns on a game of chess?
Surely the Britsh public MUST consider that this Government is fataly flawed and sacrifice it for the sake of the general populace. If Mr Brown and his Labour Party had any honour, they would admit their collective blunders,accept the will of the people and retire (if not so gracefully).
Mr D Anderson, Stevenage., Herts, UK