The Liberal Democrat leadership election has failed to ignite the interest even of most of the party’s own supporters. Whoever wins in mid-December faces a big problem of attracting the public’s attention to what will be, in effect, their second relaunch in less than two years after the drift in the party’s poll rating this autumn down to the mid-teens.

The latest Populus poll for The Times, undertaken online on Wednesday evening (for more details see www.populus.co.uk), shows that 80 per cent of the public has either no opinion or does not know enough to have a view on whether Chris Huhne or Nick Clegg would be most likely to improve the party’s prospects. Even 63 per cent of declared Lib Dem supporters say they do not have a view (including 54 per cent who say they do not know enough).

Among the minority who do have a view, Mr Clegg is fractionally ahead of his rival: level-pegging at 10 to 9 per cent among the public generally, a small edge of 19 to 15 per cent among Lib Dem supporters, slightly ahead among women and working-class voters but level again with Mr Huhne for male voters. But the margins are so narrow that such figures should be treated with considerable caution.

Moreover, these figures are no guide to the views of the much smaller number, 63,000, of Lib Dem members who have now started to vote. It is very hard to assess the opinion of such a small group, and one poll in the Huhne-Menzies Campbell contest in early 2006 proved to be an unreliable guide. Asking people at hustings can be an interesting pointer to activists’ opinions, but not to the views of the much larger number of armchair members, perhaps over five-sixths of the total.

No polls have yet been published this time, though there are rumours that one is now being undertaken.

There are big differences to the situation in 2006. Then, Sir Menzies Campbell was much better known than Mr Huhne, who still got 40 per cent of the vote. Now, there is greater equality between the candidates since Mr Clegg is less well known than Sir Menzies was then. However, like the former leader, Mr Clegg has the support of a clear majority of Lib Dem MPs and of the party establishment. No one knows how much this support will matter, and it could work against Mr Clegg among some activists.

There are also 8,000 fewer party members than in early 2006, and the Huhne camp hopes this will favour their man.

Another big difference is that the candidates now have membership and telephone lists to allow them to approach members directly by phone and direct mail. This puts more of a premium on grassroots campaigning, where Mr Huhne may have the edge from his past experience and from his base among party activists built up last year.

Mr Clegg has faced criticism in the press for not being sharp and clear-cut enough under pressure, especially in the televised debates. He is seen as having disappointed so far by comparison with Mr Huhne, though the latter’s aggressive campaigning has alienated some leading Lib Dems.

Mr Clegg is still the favourite, but only just, and there is a sense – more a mood – among leading Lib Dems that the contest is tightening and could be close.

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