Peter Riddell: Analysis
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Voters are increasingly fed up with the main parties and their ability to solve the country’s problems, according to the latest Populus poll for The Times.
The survey, conducted over the weekend (for more details, see www.populus.co.uk), suggests that the public is dissatisfied with Gordon Brown’s Government, but is not yet enthusiastic about David Cameron and the Tories.
Labour is no longer in freefall, as it was two weeks ago, but its rating is comparable with the worst days of last winter and spring, towards the end of the Blair premiership.
The Conservatives are enjoying their strongest period of this parliament, but the monthly averages suggest that they are consolidating at about 40 per cent, rather than building on their earlier gains. They are some way from Mr Cameron’s 45 per cent goal.
Two revealing pointers reflect the ambivalent state of public opinion. First, the preference of government question has been a reliable indicator of how elections are likely to go even when the ruling party is doing badly in voting intentions. For instance, back in February 2004, 77 per cent said that they were dissatisfied with Labour, but 60 per cent still preferred Labour to the Tories as the government.
A pivotal central group is now dissatisfied with Labour but still prefers them to the Tories in office. But there are now 17 per cent don’t knows or neither, compared with 5 or 6 per cent in 2004.
Secondly, Labour has lost ground sharply over the past three months as the best party on nine key policy issues. But the Tories have improved their position only marginally in most areas.
While the Government has lost the confidence of the public, notably on the economy, the Tories have failed to persuade sufficient voters of its readiness for office. Populus notes that Labour is now one point or so above the level of the Major Government at the same stage of the 1992-97 parliament, while the Tories are polling about eight points below the level then of the Labour Opposition. With the Lib Dems more or less where they were then, the difference is made up by the rise of other parties.
The Brown leadership still believes that its position is recoverable. So we are in for some heavy pounding on policy issues, starting today with the ten-year children’s plan and welfare reforms on Thursday. Mr Cameron will give his own ideas, but the public is waiting to be convinced.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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