If Nick Clegg wins the Liberal Democrat leadership on Tuesday, it will be despite the campaign he has fought over the past three months. If Chris Huhne wins, it will be entirely because of the aggressive campaign he has fought. Mr Clegg, the early front-runner, has been forced on to the defensive in a contest that has matched a still developing political personality against a fully formed one.

Mr Clegg, who has the support of a big majority of Lib Dem MPs and the party establishment, remains - just – the favourite, gaining from strong early support, despite a possible shift of late votes to Mr Huhne. Yet at times Mr Clegg has faltered and sounded waffly in public. As the front-runner, he has felt inhibited in counter-attacking against the Huhne camp’s charges of flip-flops. Policy differences between them over Trident and schools certainly exist, but these are minor compared with their much larger areas of agreement over Europe and the economy.

Mr Clegg has an appealing personality and has made thoughtful speeches, notably on reform of public services and libertarian issues. Along with close allies such as David Laws and Norman Lamb, he has been keen to open the supply side in schools and health. He wants to encourage new providers, as in Sweden, though with more help for poorer parents in order to reduce inequality. But his message has seldom come across clearly. And he has not always seemed hungry for the leadership.

By contrast, Mr Huhne, 13 years Mr Clegg’s senior at 53, and his close allies have seemed all too keen for him to become leader. Their line has been the, at times, patronising one that their man already has the experience to be leader while Mr Clegg is not ready yet, though his turn may come later.“

This ruthlessness, even arrogance, explains why many Lib Dem MPs and peers are backing Mr Clegg. What Mr Huhne is offering is a version of David Owen’s approach as the leader of the old SDP in the mid1980s, operating as an energetic guerrilla fighter in seeking media attention on big stories of the day, as he has done recently over the donations row.

But do campaign performances show how the two candidates would fare as party leader? That could be crucial. Both men say they intend to sharpen up the party organisation and to develop a much broader electoral strategy, going beyond the target seat approach of the past decade or so.

Mr Clegg is aware both of mistakes in his campaign and of the challenges he faces as leader to establish himself publicly. He has considerable potential, while Mr Huhne might be more assured from the start.

It is easy to envisage either in charge. And, despite the rhetoric during the campaign, it would be wrong to exaggerate the short-term difference that the choice of one or the other would make. Any Lib Dem leader will find it hard to boost the party’s ratings.

In retrospect, Sir Menzies Campbell may be thanked, not blamed, as the leader who stabilised the party after the Charles Kennedy implosion, promoted younger talent and encouraged new tax and green policies. He has provided a base for either Mr Clegg or Mr Huhne, though the winner faces a long fight to give the party a distinctive role in the face of attempts by Gordon Brown and David Cameron to squash the new leader from the start.

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