The Gordon Brown recovery plan is clear: no big personal makeover, no new “Barack Brown”. Instead, it is to be the familiar austere, almost masochistic, long-termism act, with which we became so familiar in his ten years as Iron Chancellor. The underlying theme is: the tougher times are, the more you need the man of experience who is in for the long haul. That ran through both his interviews yesterday in The Observer and on the Andrew Marr programme on BBC One.

Mr Brown has no real choice. His first six months in 10 Downing Street have shown that, for better or worse, becoming Prime Minister has not changed him. He remains the same complicated mixture of shrewd insight, intellectual sweep, doubt and indecision. For all his charm in private, he is never going to wow the public that way. So it is better to play to those attributes that did so well for him for so long as Chancellor. Consequently, he dismisses his pre-Christmas troubles – the wavering over the election date, the lost official data, etc – as just “ups and downs. You’ve got things that go right or wrong. Events come and they go.”

Of course that is true, but what has so damaged Mr Brown is what these episodes have said about him, and his character, and this cannot be so readily dismissed.

Senior ministers and civil servants report a mood of self-delusion, even denial, on the part of the Prime Minister and his close allies: an attempt to rewrite what has happened in a totally unconvincing manner. For Mr Brown, the key question is, “Are you making the right long-term decisions for the country. Now, on all the big decisions, I think the Opposition parties are ducking them – on energy, on [the expansion of] Heathrow, on infrastucture, on housing, on planning, on education to the age of 18, I’m going to make the right long-term decisions.” Hence, we are going to be inundated over the next few days and weeks with government statements, starting this week with John Hutton on the future of nuclear power.

This political strategy rests on the hope that Britain can withstand what Mr Brown called the “economic turbulence” better than other countries, and remain “one of the least volatile economies in the world”. This is based on his claim that tough decisions have been taken to get inflation well below the levels in the US and the rest of Europe, hence the need for a continuing tough stand on public sector pay (MPs please note).

There are two weaknesses in Mr Brown’s economic confidence. First, there are strong upward pressures on the inflation figures from sharply higher energy prices, as underlined by Alistair Darling’s letter to the Ofgem regulator. Secondly, the public finances are at, or beyond, the limits of prudence. Mr Brown’s attempt yesterday to explain away the rise in public borrowing by saying that it should be judged in relation to a new economic cycle sounded likem – and was – special pleading. The Treasury has reinterpreted its golden rule on balancing current spending and revenue over the cycle so often as to produce general scepticism among financial analysts. The reality is that there is no margin for manoeuvre if, as seems likely, tax receipts fall short of expectations, and borrowing rises.

So Mr Brown and the Government will have to hunker down for a long, attritional battle, facing continued unpopularity until, he hopes, the economy revives.

Brown’s battle lines

Nuclear power

John Hutton, the Business Secretary, is widely expected to throw his weight behind a new generation of nuclear power stations. He will face objections from the environmental lobby and Lib Dems while the Tories have yet to signal their position

Education

Plans to keep 16 to 18-year-olds in education or training will be unveiled a week today by Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary. The Tories say that the policy is a gimmick and will mean more disruptive children in schools

MPS’ Pay

Gordon Brown has rejected recommendations for a 2.8 per cent increase, but will face a backlash from MPs of all parties, particularly those in Labour who may lose their seats at the next election and want to boost their final salary pension

Guns

Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, has promised to ban “deactivated” guns, which can easily be reconverted into active firearms for use in crime. She said that she was looking into changes that would allow witnesses of crime to enjoy earlier protection

NHS “Deep-Clean”

Alan Johnson will publish detailed plans for tackling MRSA and Clostridium difficile later this week. Mr Brown said that tackling hospital-acquired infections was an “absolute priority” for the NHS

ID Cards

Mr Brown used the most cautious language to date to justify this policy yesterday. He said they could be used to prevent people’s identity being stolen, but emphasised they would be voluntary and acknowledged Britain was a country with a tradition of civil liberties

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