Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Voters back Alistair Darling’s decision to raise taxes on drinkers and drivers, are resigned to bad times and do not expect much from either main party, according to an opinion poll taken for The Times.
The Populus poll, undertaken on Wednesday evening to provide an immediate public response to the Budget, shows that people are resigned both to higher taxes and to being worse off over the coming year. A majority believes that the Budget will not make much difference and that there is little the Government can do about the economic outlook.
Mr Darling will be relieved that voters are not more hostile and that there is no confidence that a Conservative Budget would have been better for most people.
The most striking finding is that more than half the public (55 per cent) agree with the big increases in duty on alcohol. Women agree more than men and support is higher among middle-class than working-class groups.
An even higher proportion (68 per cent) back the big increase in the vehicle excise duty levied on “gas-guzzling” cars. Professionals and managers, who are the most likely to own such cars, are even more in favour (75 per cent).
There is a small majority agreeing with the general principle that, if taxes need to rise, raising duty on alcohol and on gas-guzzling cars is the best way to do it. Voters strongly approve of the use of these higher taxes to fund increases in child benefit and the winter fuel allowances for over-60s.
But the public is realistic about the implications. Nearly two fifths (38 per cent) believe they will pay more tax than before, and just 4 per cent less — and 42 per cent think they will be worse off after the Budget. A quarter (26 per cent) think the Budget will be bad for businesses and just 9 per cent good. Similarly, 23 per cent think it will increase the risk of a recession, and 6 per cent reduce one.
However, in answer to all these questions, between two fifths and a half think that the Budget will make no real difference. Two thirds think that “Britain’s economic position and prospects are affected much more by the conditions of the global economy than by anything that the Chancellor of the Exchequer does”.
A similar proportion say they do not pay “much attention to the debate because you can’t believe anything any of the parties say when it comes to tax, public spending and economic statistics”.
A huge 93 per cent — as near as you are ever likely to come to unanimity in any poll — agree that, whoever is in government, “it always seems that when the Budget comes, they give with one hand and take back with the other”.
Populus also asked whether, if the Conservatives were in office, their Budget would have been better or worse than Labour’s for seven different groups. The Tories came out ahead on only three: the wealthiest, big business and for tackling climate change. They were reckoned to be worse than Labour for the poorest, for “people like you” and for motorists.
The Tories have, however, gained ground on economic competence. Asked whom would you most trust to deal with any economic problems in the months ahead, backing for David Cameron and George Osborne has risen to 40 per cent, from 34 per cent three weeks ago and 27 per cent six months ago.
Support for the Gordon Brown/Darling team has risen from 38 to 43 per cent in the past three weeks. This continues the recovery since November, after a slump by half from 61 per cent in early September. So Labour has not lost this battle — yet.
There is a sense of fatalism that things can only get worse and that neither party can do much about it.
— Populus interviewed a random sample of 596 adults aged over 18 by telephone on March 12. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. For more details go to www.populus.co.uk
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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