Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Conservatives for electoral reform? Yes, there used to be some, back in PT (pre-Thatcher) days. But they are virtually extinct now, at least publicly. Yet it could be in the Tories’ interests to consider, rather than just dismiss out of hand, the alternative vote (AV). This is a preferential system in which voters list candidates one, two, three etc. In the short term, this switch could hit Labour and benefit the Tories.
For some time, leading Labour politicians have favoured AV as a step towards what they see as a fairer electoral system. Peter Hain has been a leading advocate, while Sunder Katwala, of the Fabian Society, has argued in a post on ourkingdom.opendemocracy. net that it is the best hope for progressive reform.
But now the idea is being floated more officially. Michael Wills, the Constitutional Reform Minister, has talked about AV as a means of reviving democratic legitimacy. Moreover, Jack Straw, who largely sank the Jenkins report on electoral reform in late 1998, is positive about AV, because it preserves single-member constituencies and takes account of multiple candidacies.
AV is seen as fairer, as a winning candidate has to gain the support of at least 50 per cent of voters, at any rate those casting further preferences. It is not a PR system and often produces a less proportional result than first-past-the-post. Patrick Dunleavy, of the London School of Economics, has estimated than in 1997, under AV the Tories would have had only 110 seats, against the 165 they did win, while the Labour total would have risen from 419 to 436, with the Lib Dems up from 46 to 84.
The key to AV is which is the more unpopular of the two main parties. During the 1980s Labour might have been even worse off. And that is probably true now with the Tories well ahead in the polls and Labour lagging. So, while an AV election would probably help the Lib Dems at all times, whichever other party is boosted depends on public opinion at the time.
The Tories oppose fully fledged proportional representation because it removes the single member seat (not true of AV) and is certain to mean coalitions giving the final say to the third party, the Lib Dems. This is true only some of the time (when the two main parties are close), and, indeed, the threshold, in terms of share of the vote, for the Tories to win an overall majority would be lower than at present.
The politics is simple. Labour wants to keep open its options if it fails to win an overall majority and there is a hung Parliament. Floating AV is intended to titillate the Lib Dems, and some are interested as a step, they hope, to full PR. By contrast, the CentreForum think-tank has produced a paper arguing that on key policies, such as “greenery” and civil liberties, the Lib Dems are today closer to the Tories than for many years. The Lib Dems’ voters may be less hostile to the Tories, but most of their activists, and MPs, are still instinctively antiTory.
In practice there are unlikely to be any quick deals in a hung Parliament. As the new series of essays from the Hansard Society, No Overall Control?, points out, it is likely to be a dynamic political situation in which parties manoeuvre for advantage. Only after a second election producing a hung Parliament will electoral reform become a serious possibility.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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My vote at the next election will be determined by who I don't want in office more than who I do. I'd love to see a 1st choice, 2nd choice and a "not if their life depended on it" choice. And of course, those results are all counted and published with the results.
Paul, London,
Leave the system as it is. This latest government proposal is to ensure that Labour gets re-elected relying on Libdem supporters voting a Labour instead of Tory candidate as second choice, and ensuring the Labour one gets elected.
George, London,
What about ending honours, titles, and influence for life for those chosen for the Second Chamber?
Bob, London,
Also, with multi-member constituencies, lots of local government wards return more than one councillor. My local government ward returns 3, and my town council ward returns 6.
I really don't understand why 3, 4 or 5 MPs per constituency would be any worse than 1 MP, when currently most of the people in a constituency wouldn't have voted for that 1 MP anyway.
Helen, Wokingham, UK
On the "Parliamentary Voodoo" surrounding the constituency link, two quick points:
1 - the constituency link that people venerate is a link between 1 individual and 1 MP. Thereâs is no reason why 1 individual to 3 MPs could not be referred to/act as a constituency link. The Hansard Audit of Engagement 5, launched yesterday, shows that only 15% of people have contacted their MP in the last 3 years. Democracy is not going to crumble overnight if we introduce multi-member constituencies.
2 - size of multi-member constituencies: Britain is a small and relatively densely populated country. If AV is a good system then the few Highlands and Islands constituencies that truly are too sparsely populated to support multi-member constituencies can operate AV. The rest of us can have STV in 3-5 member constituencies, with all the benefits for representation and individual voter efficacy that this brings.
Steve Skelton, London (né Doncaster),
I have rarely voted for anybody. I vote against.
Almost always, and certainly not uncommonly, I particularly detest one candidate, and want to oppose him, or her of course. The only way to do this is to support his principal opponent - whom I tend to like but little better. Meanwhile people with the opposite view take the opposite action, with the result that the totals of both candidates are inflated, with their egos and megalomanias.
Optional Negative Voting is a more revealing, more honest system. An elector casts his same, single vote either for a candidate, to raise his total, or against him, to decrease it. This tells politicians what the electorate thinks of them.
Unsurprisingly, no major party, in any country, will even admit that ONV exists.
Noel Falconer, COUIZA, France
There must not be the slightest change to our constitution without a referendum of the British people. I should not trust any of the main polical parties with my small change let alone with scrapping our voting system.
George, Bolton, UK
My goodness, this is breathtaking. Approaching a time when the Tories are going to need both sides of the House to house all their MPs a stalwart of the Left, probably fearing the extinguishing of the representation of his vote, looks towards electoral reform to accommodate the eclipse of his party of choice! Memo to David Cameron, Dear Sir, I have received confirmation from a socialist insider that his party is doomed, this is contained in a plea for a PR system, such as the one that the one policy Liberals have been seeking for years, ignore it, he's having a laugh. The only possible attraction in this suggestion is a veiled appeal to the Liberals to move into the Government's lobby to support a proposal that they have been pursuing since the flood. But this is the liberal dilemma of the Liberal party, to support such a plea at this time, to drawer closer to Labour in their death throws, will stigmatise the Liberal too. The electorate will be after blood; Liberals lie low.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
" ... the CentreForum think-tank has produced a paper arguing that on key policies, such as âgreeneryâ and civil liberties, the Lib Dems are today closer to the Tories than for many years."
I beg to differ. The two parties are not actually close at all on these issues.
For the most part, the Lib Dems are seriously committed to these and other issues and are prepared, for example, to take hard and possibly unpopular measures to deal with carbon emissions.
The Tories pay lip service to these matters and are only concerned with softening their image in order to gain the popular vote. On the infrequent occasions when they have announced specific policies (e.g. their £20 a week marriage allowance) they have been exposed as gimmicks, being superficial, ill thought out and subsequently quietly shelved.
Michael Cole, London,