Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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The malaise is real and it is widespread. The Brown Government is in deep trouble. It is not just the polls, although they are bad enough, with three out of the last five putting Labour at below 30 per cent. Nor is it the increasing likelihood that Ken Livingstone will be beaten by Boris Johnson in four weeks.
The rot goes to the heart of government, to No 10, and the sense that something is seriously wrong has spread, ominously, to Labour MPs, not just disgruntled ex-ministers but normal loyalists.
The semi-public squabbling in No 10 over the role of Stephen Carter, the new political supremo and head strategist, and his new team dismays not only Gordon Brown but also senior ministers. As one insider said: “If PR Week has become the new house journal of No 10, then we are in real trouble.” But it is not just the leaks. There is also a lack of clarity about who does what, duplication of roles and a culture clash between the business/media worlds and the politicians (Brownite or Blairite). Parallels are drawn with the arrival of Norman (now Lord) Blackwell from McKinsey as head of the Policy Unit towards the end of the Major Government.
These stories have obscured the really important change this year in No 10: the arrival of Jeremy Heywood as Permanent Secretary in charge of the Civil Service side and policy. He is an energetic force, not always to the comfort of other officials, who feel that he pulls power towards himself, draining it from others. But he has become again, as he was under Tony Blair from 1999 to 2003, the indispensable fixer.
Aside from the “court” rows, the Government is now seen as accident prone, stumbling into problems that should have been foreseen well beforehand, such as the whipping on the embryology Bill, and post office closures.
Many of these worries surfaced at Monday’s meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party. This was intended to be a chance for Mr Brown to rally MPs before the two-week recess starting today and the local election campaign. Instead, it turned into a long moan with a dozen MPs complaining about recent difficulties, particularly the abolition of the 10p starting rate of income tax. Despite the 2p cut in the basic rate to 20p, and adjustments to tax credits, more than five million families could lose out, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
It is wrong to portray this as an anti-Brown mood, yet. He is not blamed for the No 10 leaks, which he is seeking to halt. There is more a sense of bewilderment and confusion. As the Brownites fairly argue, a lot is happening in education, health, work and pensions and local government. In some areas, such as academies and welfare-to-work, the pace of reform has intensified under Mr Brown but he gets little credit for it.
Now there is a sense of foreboding about the electoral outlook. This is symbolised by the Labour gloom about London, although, elsewhere, local factors could produce a more mixed picture. Watch out for MPs worrying about their seats and younger ministers about their career prospects. It is going to be a very testing spring and summer for Mr Brown.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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I will vote for UKIP. It's a small party with a big idea - we need to govern our own country again.
Dave, Chester,
thank god we have another choice in scotland.........Il be voting snp in the next general election
billy, aberdeen, Scotland..
It is quite obvious that many many Labour MPs are going to lose their seats at the next election.They have not yet realised that the only way to have a chance of survival in government is to get rid of G Brown who is very unpopular with the electorate.
If proof was needed that something is wrong at the heart of Labour then the MPs at Westminster need look no further than Scotland.Here the Labour have party lost control of the parliament in a country that they dominated for over fifty years.If they cannot hang on in ther heartland then something is surely wrong.
Its time to wake up and smell the coffee before its too late!
martin, Dundee, Scotland
I will never vote labour again until it stops discriminating against marriage!I am also appalled at it's pushing of the Homosexual agenda,the placing of Gay-friendly books in primary schools,the sexual orientation regulations,the disregard for the need for a father in the human fertilisation bill.On top of this,the failure to give us a say on the Lisbon treaty
raymond joseph douglas, northampton uk, uk
To Ben Foster, Penley, I can spell 'their' and 'lose'.
(Only joking, I just used cut and paste.)
joe, Berwickshire, Scotland
Mr Riddell,
You say the âpace of reformâ has intensified in academies, but that is to confuse change (and rhetoric) for reform. There has indeed been a mild increase in the number of academies planned. However, that quantitative change has been outweighed by retrograde steps in the remit and powers that academies enjoy. The changes introduced by Ed Balls mean academies lose some control over their curriculum to local education authorities and last week it was announced that they may be compelled to take pupils permanently excluded from other local schools, thus reducing their control over admissions (as well as their attractiveness to aspirational parents).
Tim, London, UK
Labour have no idea how much they are wideley despised by ordinary folks now. Even my Mum..and ex print union rep ..can't stand them.
Its nothing to with policies..or the economy..or pesonalities etc.
Its just that they are seen as morally corrupt. and completely incompetent.
New Labour is seen has having only one over riding principle which is ...do anything and say anything to retain power.
They are basically dis-honourable people.People know that now (especially after Brown bottled the election decision).
The party is hanging on , scared of losing its access to its current trough of perks I guess..but they are simply delaying the inevitable.
SRTimms, edinburgh, scotland
"the sense that something is seriously wrong"
Something is seriously wrong: Brown appears to have no policies. And having bottled the election last year so that he could show us his 'vision for Britain' it now turns out that he hasn't got one.
MarkS, Leeds,
Am I the only person on the face of the planet who can spell "their" and "lose"?
ben foster, penley,
At last the general population are getting the message:
This nulabor government is institutionally corrupt. The corruption is absolute, lead from the top down and out of control. Being rotten to the core and from the core, everything it touches it taints. Having neither the ability nor inclination to change, outside intervention is indicated.
martin brighton, sheffield,
I will never vote Labour again for there immigration policy alone. Both Blair and Brown seem to have done there upmost to destroy the Country in the shortest period possible.
Roger, Surrey,
We see it every day - these MP's just see it now - errrrrrrrrrr !!!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
Vote liberal democrats - we have had 18 years of conversative, 11 years of labour - both are absolutely shambolic in governining. People talk how useless and ineffective are the LibDems - have we got anything to loose to give them a go? It will only be another wasteful 5 years if it does go bad, but no one will ever know.
d, london,
Just starting to get the message then ... about time . Labour are doomed and they thoroughly deserve it .
Benzo, Nr Chelmsford,
I won't vote Labour either, I am very disappointed in Gordon Brown, I thought he was going to be magnificent, but it seems all he wanted was to actually be Prime Minister with no thought as to what the job would entail. Whatever was said about Tony Blair, at least he had charisma in public speaking, more than could be said for Brown. And as he loves us being flooded with immigrants so much, maybe we could arrange for him to have to open his house doors to them, and see how he likes that. This country is full up!!
marina, Hemel Hempstead, Herts
Good heavens.
Peter Riddell is criticising the government?
Better late than never but what finally caused the scales to fall from the Riddell eyes?
Can we hope that, in the event of Brown losing the next election, it will be said 'it woz Riddell wot done it'?
Tricia, Sussex, uk
I wont be voting labour next, the £400 road tax bill for my car in 2010 is disgusting. Is it going on roads? Not by the state of the tarmac around here
Nick Prosser, FORRES,