The malaise is real and it is widespread. The Brown Government is in deep trouble. It is not just the polls, although they are bad enough, with three out of the last five putting Labour at below 30 per cent. Nor is it the increasing likelihood that Ken Livingstone will be beaten by Boris Johnson in four weeks.

The rot goes to the heart of government, to No 10, and the sense that something is seriously wrong has spread, ominously, to Labour MPs, not just disgruntled ex-ministers but normal loyalists.

The semi-public squabbling in No 10 over the role of Stephen Carter, the new political supremo and head strategist, and his new team dismays not only Gordon Brown but also senior ministers. As one insider said: “If PR Week has become the new house journal of No 10, then we are in real trouble.” But it is not just the leaks. There is also a lack of clarity about who does what, duplication of roles and a culture clash between the business/media worlds and the politicians (Brownite or Blairite). Parallels are drawn with the arrival of Norman (now Lord) Blackwell from McKinsey as head of the Policy Unit towards the end of the Major Government.

These stories have obscured the really important change this year in No 10: the arrival of Jeremy Heywood as Permanent Secretary in charge of the Civil Service side and policy. He is an energetic force, not always to the comfort of other officials, who feel that he pulls power towards himself, draining it from others. But he has become again, as he was under Tony Blair from 1999 to 2003, the indispensable fixer.

Aside from the “court” rows, the Government is now seen as accident prone, stumbling into problems that should have been foreseen well beforehand, such as the whipping on the embryology Bill, and post office closures.

Many of these worries surfaced at Monday’s meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party. This was intended to be a chance for Mr Brown to rally MPs before the two-week recess starting today and the local election campaign. Instead, it turned into a long moan with a dozen MPs complaining about recent difficulties, particularly the abolition of the 10p starting rate of income tax. Despite the 2p cut in the basic rate to 20p, and adjustments to tax credits, more than five million families could lose out, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

It is wrong to portray this as an anti-Brown mood, yet. He is not blamed for the No 10 leaks, which he is seeking to halt. There is more a sense of bewilderment and confusion. As the Brownites fairly argue, a lot is happening in education, health, work and pensions and local government. In some areas, such as academies and welfare-to-work, the pace of reform has intensified under Mr Brown but he gets little credit for it.

Now there is a sense of foreboding about the electoral outlook. This is symbolised by the Labour gloom about London, although, elsewhere, local factors could produce a more mixed picture. Watch out for MPs worrying about their seats and younger ministers about their career prospects. It is going to be a very testing spring and summer for Mr Brown.

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