Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
Labour MPs are right to be worried about the current position of the Government and their party’s prospects in the local elections on May 1. Putting voting intentions to one side, the striking feature of the latest Populus poll for The Times is the public’s pessimism about the outlook for the economy and about the current state of Britain. Moreover, voters no longer give Labour the benefit of the doubt.
Moods matter in politics and the present one is gloomy across the board. More than two thirds (70 per cent) believe that Britain is going in the wrong direction and just a quarter that it is on the right track at the moment. A similar question was asked in a New York Times/CBS News poll last week with 81 per cent saying that America is now on the wrong track, up from 69 per cent a year ago and 35 per cent in early 2002. It is very hard for any incumbent party to recover from such ratings.
Voters here have seen the headlines about the credit crunch and cutbacks in new mortgage approvals, and lowered their expectations sharply since last autumn. The middle classes are roughly twice as pessimistic as working-class voters but, so far, this appears to be more in anticipation of bad developments than in response to them.
Although most voters have become more worried over the past few months about the prospects for them and their families, they are still on balance, just, positive. A gap has grown over the past year between their reaction to national developments and their personal experience. The housing market is certainly weak but most people have not yet been personally affected by the consequences of falling prices and repossessions.
In political terms, the key change is that the Government is no longer seen as the safety-first option. The number regarding Labour as competent and capable has fallen by nearly a third since last September.
The poll is particularly worrying for Gordon Brown himself. His leader rating has fallen again and is now the lowest in the five years of the index, apart from one month for Tony Blair. Moreover, any temporary honeymoon he had for a couple of months last summer has disappeared completely. Only 5 per cent, and a mere 14 per cent of Labour voters, say that he has performed better than expected (against 21 and 30 per cent respectively last September). Two thirds say that he has been all talk and no action, while nearly a third say that he has been worse than Mr Blair.
Once the public has made up its mind about a leader, it is very hard to shift opinions for the better. Just ask William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith or Sir Menzies Campbell. Mr Brown is still paying the price for the shambles over the abortive election in October and the linked errors, such as the delays over Northern Rock and the tax controversies produced by the hurried Pre-Budget Report. It is very hard to see this getting any better for Mr Brown over the next year or so.
Mr Brown’s only hope is that the economic downturn will not be too severe or too long, so he can say “we have steered you through the storm without too much damage”. It is little consolation that the Tories are not doing as well as past oppositions. Mr Brown has lost the confidence of most voters.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the collective power of smart thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Flip MinoHD Camcorder
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
42,945
2008
71,450
Car Insurance
Not Specified
MI6
UK-based
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Save up to £1,000 per couple with Elite Vacations at the five-star Constance Lemuria Resort
and do the British Isles this Summer.
Save up to 60% with Oxford Hotels and Inns
Try our inspiring luxury holidays to the Indian Subcontinent and South East Asia.
Great offers available
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
My wife is on a minium wage her wage has gone down too 12 pounds a month due too the 10 pence cut it may not seem a lot too the mp's not living in the real world but it's a lot too me.
jesse williams, purley, england
The last hope went with the last election. This Government should rewrite the old Battle of Britain theme.
'NEVER WAS SO MUCH LOST BY SO FEW OWNED BY SO MANY'
Roger, Surrey,
Brown has a last hope ? Now that is interesting !!!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
My wages are going to be cut by 3 grand a year because the company I work for have employed polish workers. My house price is dwindling by the day my utility bills are off the scale, my car will soon be on par with the space shuttle to run, labour Mps are sending stupid amount on there digs. I'm british but not stupid I didn't vote for Gordon Brown so a word from the British public stop trying to be Tony Blair AND GO AWAY.
Ebenezer Brown, govan, scotland
Even a complete economic U-turn would not do much at this point as it is unclear what kind of budget deficit has been created during Gordon Brown's premiership, and it could be that the economy hits rock bottom right about the time the general election must be called. By all accounts it is a moment of worry for the general public when the truth about the spending is revealed, at least if one starts to count all the headlines how money has been wasted by the decisions of No.10. I'd be fine with a Tory government but I expect David Cameron to show he's the man for the job. And it's quite a job: steer England clear of the current mess we're in.
Andrew, Kent,
Its not just the economy which is a disaster just waiting to happening. People are increasingly angry with Labour's destruction of our society with open door immigration, promotion of minorities, multicultralism, the falling standards in schools, crime, taxation, real inflation, etc. etc,
chris, woodbridge, suffolk
His mannerisms, look, arrogant attitude and contempt for the British and for anyone who doesn't follow is ideals really winds me up.In fact the whole governement is arrogant, they treat the general public like we are thick and wish to enforce further and furhte control over our lives.
The UK is now a mini USSR with dictates from the 'Elite'
As for Ed Balls, well the name says it all to a T
Gary, Bognor, England, Sussex
We want a complete clear out of the Labour Party, in both local and national elections. Plus ken Livingstone out
Geoffrey Fish, Potefract, UK
I dont know why the labour party rename itself from new labour to new tory as quite clearly like the tories its very much A case of the rich get richer and the poor get poorer all this ta lk about means testing for the benifits allowing illegals to get house and benifits any one who has generations of family born in this country forget it we are put to the back of the Q and told to wait since tony bliar came to power he has done more damage to this country than what maggie thather did she only thought about privatising the NHS but labour have gone and sold it the yanks so another brown envopole to help pay tony morgtage well it back to the rich I do hope they lose but spare A thought for gorden tony really did out stay his welcome and left it to late for the new tories to regain confidence hope tony and cherie enjoy there retirment inther 4 million pound house paid for by the likes of you and me
nigel, london, uk
Decline in civilisation, Chris in Swinton obviously lives in a different world from mine.
My town has good schools, low crime the police are on the streets.
As for everyone criticism of the level of debt in Britain, does anyone want Governments to regulate how much money they are allowed to borrow. If your debts are too high it is your own fault!
RWB, W/Bay, UK
"Good old Gordon" - William Thomson
I nearly choked on my cornflakes when I read that...
James Steer, Nottingham,
We are experiencing nothing less than a decline of civilisation under Labour: corrupt, malign and wrong. Their only grace in all this is their incompetence!
Chris Kay, Swindon, UK
Poor old Gordon.
One of many to end up wishing he had not got what he devoted his life to securing.
"Just not up to it", in Mr Attlee's famous words.
john, lopndon,
There is no 'last hope' . Doomed !
Benzo, Nr Chelmsford,
Labour's 10 year illusion is now unfolding and I have an eerie feeling of 'rats leaving a sinking ship'. The UK has to go through a painful economic adjustment and no politician can change that fact. However, Gordon Brown could do something good for the UK and start cutting public spending to bring the public finances back to a sustainable level. He will not get re-elected but he may live with the thought that he started us on the road to recovery.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston,
Were all doomed doomed, where brown robs the poor to pay the rich we all know the end is near, but not as we know it, we have towait for the 18k to 35k to vote and aconservative government.
michael joseph heavey, cahersiveen>adams towns, madness
Good old Gordon. I never thought I'd say that, but we should give thanks that he is hastening the end of the dreaded New Labour.
William Thomson, Guildford, UK
Brown's failure to call an election when he had the chance makes him one of the great losers in political history. He will never get another chance, he is a dead man walking.
Christopher H, Canberra, Australia
There is a saying - "some men are discovered, others are found out". It would appear that Gordon Brown has now been found out at last. Why has it taken so long, is it a case of a bully who has now been exposed as weak and whose so-called skills were just an illusion. Perhaps Milliband was right when he said that we might be wishing that Tony Blair had never gone.
Callum, Birmingham, UK