Labour MPs are right to be worried about the current position of the Government and their party’s prospects in the local elections on May 1. Putting voting intentions to one side, the striking feature of the latest Populus poll for The Times is the public’s pessimism about the outlook for the economy and about the current state of Britain. Moreover, voters no longer give Labour the benefit of the doubt.

Moods matter in politics and the present one is gloomy across the board. More than two thirds (70 per cent) believe that Britain is going in the wrong direction and just a quarter that it is on the right track at the moment. A similar question was asked in a New York Times/CBS News poll last week with 81 per cent saying that America is now on the wrong track, up from 69 per cent a year ago and 35 per cent in early 2002. It is very hard for any incumbent party to recover from such ratings.

Voters here have seen the headlines about the credit crunch and cutbacks in new mortgage approvals, and lowered their expectations sharply since last autumn. The middle classes are roughly twice as pessimistic as working-class voters but, so far, this appears to be more in anticipation of bad developments than in response to them.

Although most voters have become more worried over the past few months about the prospects for them and their families, they are still on balance, just, positive. A gap has grown over the past year between their reaction to national developments and their personal experience. The housing market is certainly weak but most people have not yet been personally affected by the consequences of falling prices and repossessions.

In political terms, the key change is that the Government is no longer seen as the safety-first option. The number regarding Labour as competent and capable has fallen by nearly a third since last September.

The poll is particularly worrying for Gordon Brown himself. His leader rating has fallen again and is now the lowest in the five years of the index, apart from one month for Tony Blair. Moreover, any temporary honeymoon he had for a couple of months last summer has disappeared completely. Only 5 per cent, and a mere 14 per cent of Labour voters, say that he has performed better than expected (against 21 and 30 per cent respectively last September). Two thirds say that he has been all talk and no action, while nearly a third say that he has been worse than Mr Blair.

Once the public has made up its mind about a leader, it is very hard to shift opinions for the better. Just ask William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith or Sir Menzies Campbell. Mr Brown is still paying the price for the shambles over the abortive election in October and the linked errors, such as the delays over Northern Rock and the tax controversies produced by the hurried Pre-Budget Report. It is very hard to see this getting any better for Mr Brown over the next year or so.

Mr Brown’s only hope is that the economic downturn will not be too severe or too long, so he can say “we have steered you through the storm without too much damage”. It is little consolation that the Tories are not doing as well as past oppositions. Mr Brown has lost the confidence of most voters.

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