Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Gordon Brown’s fate largely depends on factors outside his control. He has few options available to restore his political authority. Neither he, nor the Government, has much influence on the length of the economic slowdown, nor on food and energy prices. All that can be done is to hope and wait, and to seek, as Mr Brown is trying to do, to alleviate some of the adverse impact.
The Government is, for example, encouraging banks to resume lending (through the Bank of England’s action to ease liquidity problems) and providing advice to people facing housing repossessions.
Other measures – such as the much trumpeted big expansion of shared-equity deals to help first-time homebuyers – will not of themselves revive the housing market. And backing pressure by the competition authorities on supermarkets over their prices will make no difference in the immediate future.
The Government cannot do more partly for a reason that Mr Brown hates to admit: that there is little freedom of manoeuvre on public spending and borrowing. His claim that “we’ve run the public finances well and have low debt, so that unlike other countries we’re able to borrow in this period of economic difficulty to see us through” is very one-sided.
The big rise in spending this decade has boosted borrowing to unsustainable levels. Current spending plans should be all right, but there is no leeway to do anything more, and borrowing will have to be cut substantially when good times return.
One immediate consequence is that there is no money available either to reverse or substantially modify the abolition of the 10p tax band. The former would cost £7.4 billion. All that will, or can, happen is some limited help to the main losers. Alistair Darling has already promised an early announcement on help for women pensioners aged 60 to 64 who do not qualify for pension credit. This could come this month. But it is much harder to identify or compensate other losers, such as low-income, childless households not within the working tax credit.
The real danger is that the Government will find it hard to resist calls for relaxing spending controls and public sector pay limits in order to respond to the worries of Labour MPs and core working-class voters. Postponing the 2p fuel duty rise this autumn has an obvious electoral appeal though it would send a bad fiscal and green signal. Such a relaxation would undermine Mr Brown’s reputation for fiscal prudence.
The other part of Mr Brown’s response is to outline a vision for the future. He is correct that the Government has to show it is not running out of steam. But I doubt whether the publication of the draft legislative programme for 2008-09 – with its proposals on housing, health, education and constitutional renewal – will reverse Labour’s unpopularity. Remember, the Major Government had plenty of ideas in the mid-1990s for public service reform (many later taken up by Tony Blair) and little good this did the Tories in 1997.
The key, as Mr Brown recognises, is the economy. “Showing people we can come through very difficult economic times” will no longer be taken on trust. The trouble is that, while the green shoots, let alone the blossom, of recovery will probably not be apparent until next year, the political pressures on him are more urgent.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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Maybe the goverment should consider this as a road tax option...
Cars upto 1500cc £80-00p per year RT with no exceptions.
1501cc to 2500 cc £160-00p per year RT.
2501cc and above £240-00p per year RT.
A sensible system which would work......
KEN S, SEDGEFIELD, DURHAM
Shelving the fuel tax rise would not "send a bad message" at all. With UK fuel already about Europe's most expensive, and prices high globally, it would merely be prudent avoidance of "green" blinkers damaging the economy even more than it already is.
P Orphyry, Skipton,
Unfortunately, this New Laqbour experiment was an accident waiting to happen. Messrs Wilson, Callaghan and all their cronies did it before, Mrs. Thatcher worked hard to get Britain back into some kind of economic solvency, only for Messrs Blair and Brown to put us right back to where we were before!
Peter, Brixham, Devon
"The former would cost £7.4 billion."
Is utter nonsense!
That would be if every Tax payer continued to have the lower rate at 10% without some claw back at the Upper end for Higher rate Tax payers at 20% or more.
Frank Field has already mentioned the real figure at around £0.75 billion.
M. Sheridan, Oldham, UK
Mr Brown should look at who's been advising him on Health Education and Housing and refresh the TEAM.He should also listen to front line MPs/ Councillors they know better than all these so called experts in the various departments who have a vested interest in paying lip service to the PM.Wake Up.
Mary E Hoult, Leeds, Yorkshire
Mr Brown is self-situated between a rock and a hard place. Having blown treasury funds, bailed out the banks, sold the gold and swiped the pensions, he has, as you say Peter, little room to manoeuvre. That he will now counsel those who have overcommitted personal credit - is excruciatingly laughable
Mike L, Chippenham, Wilts
Apparently Mr Brown cannot correct the 10p disaster because "it would cost too much".
Well here is a simple answer - reverse the 2p tax reduction to 20p tax band. This was only an election stunt anyway.
Martin, Brighouse, UK
Every billion pounds Brown spends, every tax payer pays £33.50 to fund Brownes spending. Work out how long it takes you to earn £33.50 after tax and thats the number of extra hours you must work for nothing. The Olympics is costing £9.5 billion, that means you pay £318.25, how many days pay is that?
Paul, Lincoln, England
"Mr Brown`s reputation for fiscal prudence" Ha, Ha, Ha,Ha, Ha, Ha. I needed a good laugh today. Thanks.
Jim, Herts,
Gordon Brown has no options left. He is now faced with his MSPs leader in Scotland challenging the SNP to hold a referendum and trying to brand Alex Salmond a coward for not doing so! How about the EU referendum Gordon? To regain confidence he has to backtrack on all he has done so far. Out now!
JohnM, Perth, Scotland
Gordon Brown has no options I would say.
In May 2007 the SNP cleared New Labour out in Scotland and now the Tories have cleared them out in England and Wales.
The people North and South of the border have spoken, and spoken clearly about what they think of McBroon and his government.
W Hutchison, Luss, Scotland
Nonsense. Brown has plenty of options.
1. scrap ID cards.
2. call EU referendum
3. scrap, not double, 10p tax rate
4. stop bailing out bankers
5. scrap target culture
6. tackle feral youths
7. control immigration properly
8. scrap quangos and un-necessary bureaucracy
9. end Iraq war
10. cut taxes.
Ken Hall, Barrow in Furness, UK
What amazes me is that commentators are surprised by what is happening to this shambles of a government. The Blair spin and charisma took them all in. New Labour was incompetent from the start and never changed. This bunch of lawyers and student activists were incapable of running anything.
Robert, Worcester, UK
old etonians... go back further, the abolishment of the grammar schools by the labour party - consequence, the privately educated now dominate the political landscape of both main parties - the comprehensive system has failed.
The UK has problems - but these have been exposed only by global crisis
Charles Bosomworth, Penrith, UK
Edward in Perth
You do realise how healthy our budget surplus was in 1979 dont you?
You do realise that the current government has raised taxes hugely and borrowed far more than is sensible, all for no real benefit.
nu labour - old labour - no difference.
Brown and co are finished.
Richard, Essex, UK
Browns so called fiascal abilities are all down to the fact that in the last 20/30 years Britain has had oil/gas revenues in the billions and billions of pounds. A monkey could have run an economy with all that cash coming in. Why didn't the 'brilliant chancellor' now PM SAVE some cash - waster!
Charlie Stone, Bury , England
Its about time the mess is pointed out! Why do you let Brown get away with his deepening black hole, present since his first budget as the tax take and PSBR have never been accurately forecast, and always under and over respectively.Brown knew he was taxing the poor! Mistakes? Its the economy stupid
Danny, Manchester,
Brown has had eleven years to get it right. What makes him believe he can do better the second time around.Not only is the term "its the economy - stupid" apt: but the term "keep it simple- stupid" Brown is stupid, he has failed economically and lumbered the populace with debt and PFIs. STUPID
M. Butcher, W-s-M, England
There's also a lot that IS within the governements control. A few humgdingers they could rectify are:
1) Abolish the waste of time HIPs and help the housing market
2) Repeal article 2 of the Human Rights Act so that we can deport undesirables.
3)Shelve the punitive vehicle excise tax due next year.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
The UK is bust, after 25 of missmanagement by clowns of both parties. All the kings horses and all the kings men, could'nt put the UK together again.
The latest two old Etonians will get their noses into the taxpayer funded trough, and that will be the extent of changing the guard. Sad Eh ?
Edward Kelly, Perth.,