Peter Riddell analysis
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Obamamania sweeps Britain. So many primaries are being held in the American presidential contest that we thought the 51st state should not be left out. So Populus asked British voters which of the two Democrat challengers they preferred, and then, separately, to choose between either of the two Democrats and the Republican Senator John McCain.
The results are fascinating at several levels. First, and most obviously, Senator Barack Obama has caught the imagination of the British public across the board. He is both known and seen as fresh and exciting. Nearly a half of all voters (48 per cent), and the same proportion of men and women, and of Labour and Tory voters, prefer Senator Obama.
Hillary Clinton has won the backing of 35 per cent of the British public, with no difference between men and women. She receives most support among Labour voters, at 41 per cent, and least, 27 per cent, among Liberal Democrats, who are the keenest on Senator Obama, at 66 per cent. Only 17 per cent do not express an opinion either way.
Secondly, more than a half of British voters want to see a Democrat win in November. Senator McCain gains the support of a fifth or less of the public. Senator Clinton would win by 56 to 20 per cent, and Senator Obama by a virtually identical 54 to 19 per cent. Of course, the two Democrats have been in the news a lot more recently, though Senator McCain is one of the best-known American politicians in Britain.
Conservative voters are the most enthusiastic about Senator McCain, with about a quarter supporting him. But this is roughly half the number backing either of the two Democrats (24 to 54 per cent in a McCain/Clinton match-up and 26 to 48 per cent in a McCain/Obama one among Tories). The precise figures have to be treated with caution since the numbers answering the second question are relatively small. But the trends are clear cut.
Labour voters back either of the Democrats by huge margins against Senator McCain (67 to 14 per cent if Senator Clinton is the nominee and 64 to 11 per cent if it is Senator Obama).
Senator McCain is probably being tarnished by a strongly anti-Republican mood among British voters, fuelled by the unpopularity of President Bush and the Iraq war. Back in September 2004, Populus asked whether British voters preferred President Bush or Senator John Kerry to win the presidential election that November. The Democrat came out ahead by 52 to 29 per cent. And for all the talk of a neoconservative alliance, Tory voters backed Senator Kerry over President Bush by 50 to 35 per cent.
The poll shows the extent of transatlantic disillusionment after the Bush era, and, by implication, the potential for rebuilding of relations after the new president takes office next January. The trouble with Obamamania, however, is the risk of excessive expectations, and consequent disillusionment when/if American policies change less than hoped.
.— Populus interviewed 757 adults by telephone between May 2 and 4 on the Clinton versus Obama question, and 544 of these people between May 6 and 7 on a recall question about the choice of president. For more details, go to www.populus.co.uk .
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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Obama will lose in a landslide to McCain. That is a fact. Can't win with only blacks, college kids, and wimpy leftwinger latte liberals.
John, Baltimore, USA
A lot of people seem to be shouting at Britain here and saying we don't know what we're talking about and insulting our country, but I just thought this was a poll for interesting data, rather than conclusive. Besides, 1,200 people questioned is hardly the population of Britain. We're not that small
James, Leeds, UK
Brilliant piece! Though the Brits might not vote in American elections we should not be insulted for having minds of our own. We are entiltled to our views. It's not as if our opinions will have an influence on the outcome in November - only the Americans do. Obama is brilliant, charming & fresh!
Mandy, Camberley, UK
With the same type of foreign outlook that Obama holds, Euros and Brits led us into two disastrous wars that cost us worldwide close to 70 million dead. Euros, Brits, do not presume to give us advice. Sad when you tie your destiny and your future to strangers. Do something for your own selves.
zqll, Dallas, Tx., USA
Britain! The opinions fellow Americans on the board unfortunately represent an awfully large portion of the rest of the country. I'm with you - Obama is brilliant. Want to see Obama as prez? Pray! Find God and pray that the Republicans don't succeed in falsely distorting this fine man's reputation
Barrett, Denver, USA
"Just curious, if America steps away from the world, which country fills the vacuum - China? Russia? India? Brazil?"
Why not India? It is, after all, the world's greatest democracy.
Kate, Southampton, UK
Speaking as another Canadian, a fairly significant number of people - even in the strongly neo-conservative Alberta - support Obama. Even here, where American and Canadian flags often fly side by side, the Bush backlash is evident.
Keegan Mullin, Calgary, Canada
We the Brits, are a small nation, but we are a wise people, we left it up to the Americans to choose a leader and after GW BUSH, we want a voice. The entire Nation held their breath on G W BUSH 2nd term the shock crippled the minds of the free world. It was the biggest desaster in recent HISTORY.
Daphne Kenward , Cambridge, UK
If that's the case, then many people in Britain will be disappointed come November.
Brian, Florida, USA
This is probably because Barack Obama has been given more positive press than anyone I can remember. The media seem besotted by him. This is rampant "identity" politics. John McCain has great qualities - his a war hero, independent thinker and experienced senator. He dwarfs Barack Obama.
Tim, Leeds, England
I think European opinion should count for something. But sadly mindless anti-Americanism continues to vomit from the European left and that is truly a pity.
Just curious, if America steps away from the world, which country fills the vacuum - China? Russia? India? Brazil?
Good luck Europe!
Erik D., Cape Cod, Mass., America
THANK YOU Britain...As a United States citizen & a member of the Democratic party OBAMA is the best thing that has come our way in a long time!....Thanks again my British friends for your support!!!
RM Stoker, cortland, NY, USA
Obama is popular with the British because he is not a neocon.
Overwhelmingly the British loathe the neocons with their lies and wars which cause British deaths and benefit us not one whit.
It is time for neocons to realise that if you are loathsome you will be loathed.
John, London, UK
I hear a lot of talk about Obama and Hillary; they get a lot of coverage on the mainstream media. John McCain rarely gets any coverage here. That might explain it.
I would be surprised if any of those questioned could even give a detailed analysis of each candidate.
Morag, Scotland,
Robert Jackson of New Jersey is correct in the statements that we Brits can`t vote and that Mr McCain is going to win.
I would however demure with his other comment, namely we do count greatly to the USA on most issues!
F Luscombe, Plymouth, Devon
but, darling brits, this is exactly why we staged the boston tea party and fought a war for independence. you do not count! you cannot vote! and, mark my words, john mccain will be elected president of the united states in november. mark my words. . .
Robert Baxter, new jersey , usa
The last time this poll was taken in Canada Obama moved ahead of Hillary with 43%. Surprisingly, even though McCain is the only candidate supporting NAFTA he only got 9%. I find Obama to be one of the most inspiring leaders ever and I sure hope we get to see what effect he will throughout the world.
Keith, Halifax, Canada
because europe people only hear the media stuff. They don't actually know what Mccain has overcame to be running for president. Our media here in the states is fully democratic which is gay. You just wait until the elections Mccain will win. Obama = no experience. Hilliary is just a not smart.
Eric, Melrose, United States