Peter Riddell
Take a trip to New York and see the city from the air
Alistair Darling is trying to buy Labour out of unpopularity, but at a big long-term cost to financial credibility. The Brown Government is doing exactly what its predecessors did when they hit political trouble – throw money at a problem, as both Heath and Wilson did in the 1970s.
Yesterday’s mini-Budget shows just how rattled the Government has become. The timing reflects the urgency of the need to stabilise morale and the remote hope of saving the Crewe & Nantwich by-election a week tomorrow. The £2.7 billion cost is the price of rescuing Gordon Brown from his self-inflicted mistake in abolishing the 10p rate of income tax and his refusal for a long time to recognise the seriousness of the problem.
The package is far larger than was being considered last month. Mr Darling has gone for the simple option, raising the personal tax allowance. This ensures that 4.2 million of the original losers will be fully compensated, or better, while the losses of the remaining 1.1 million will be at least halved.
Mr Darling’s statement succeeded in its immediate goal: Labour MPs cheered; Frank Field apologised for criticising Mr Brown; and public sector union leaders competed to praise the move (in itself enough reason to be wary). So harmony returns, but for how long? And at what cost? Mr Darling said the announcement was not only to help the 10p losers but was also “a family tax cut” for those on middle incomes, the main beneficiaries, at a time when oil and food prices have been rising. But such changes were temporary, for this financial year only. It was right, he said, to finance the costs through higher public borrowing, “ensuring that we do not take money out of the economy at this time”.
This boost to borrowing comes on top of an increase caused by the credit crunch, which is cutting tax receipts. So it is not just a matter of allowing borrowing to rise in line with cyclical forces to help the economy. The Chancellor is making the totals even higher.
Mr Darling sought to offer reassurance that decisions in this autumn’s Pre-Budget Report would be “consistent with fiscal rules”. But, in the same breath, he said that “for future years our aim is to continue the same level of support for those on lower incomes”. This will presumably be via tax credits, but the rise in personal allowances cannot be reversed.
So the Treasury will have to raise a very large amount next year. This means either higher taxes or lower spending since higher borrowing cannot be continued. The public finances are not in a healthy state after the sharp rise in public spending since 2000. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that an £8 billion adjustment will have to be made at some stage. Now, with the economy slowing, is the wrong time. But a painful corrective package cannot be put off for ever.
The danger is that unpopularity makes the Government less fiscally responsible so as to appease disgruntled supporters. So much for prudence and the Iron Chancellor.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
Follow our three athletes' progress in their preparations for the London Triathlon, and pick up training tips and more
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
We explore leisure activities that are safe and suitable for all of the family
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers


Why good girls pay good money for bad-girl baubles

Search The Times Births, Marriages & Deaths
£129,500
Bentley Edinburgh
£79,850
Mercedes-Benz of Northampton
£26,995
Unit 1, Woodfield Business Unit, Kidderminster Road, Ombersley, Worcester.
Great car insurance deals online
90k + Bonus + Options
Confidential
London
£23,716 +
Highways Agency
National
£
£43,405 - £48,228 pa
Notting Hill Housing
London
£30,000 base, £100,000 OTE
Riches Consulting
London/South
Live in One of London's Most Vibrant Areas
From £249,950
Beautiful Gardens w/ stunning Thames Views
Studios £33K, 1 Beds £60K, 2 beds £79K
Mortgages, bank acc & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Explore mystical Jordan
From £1030 for 7nts 4*
to USA's Most Cosmopolitan City; San Francisco!
£POA
Book Now for Winter 08/09 and Get 10% off!
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
David Mitchell suggests "It was exactly the right thing to do".
Pity that the Chancellor needed the threat of a few Labour rebels joining the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in voting down the budget to force his hand.
Eddie, Cheshunt, Herts
'A painful corrective package cannot be put pff forever'. No. Just until a Tory Government. It is always down to them.
Why do you lot never learn?
Sally C, York, Yorks.
The sooner this bunch of 'cowboys' is gone the better. But what a mess they have left for the Tories to sort out.
D Case, Newquay,
What is the current state of play on Brussels' plan to fine us for the parlous state of our economy?
This extra 2.7 billion is not going to leave much in the coffers to pay the fine, is it?
Mike Poulsen, Reading, Berkshire
I'm a 61 yr old male living alone. I have worked for 44years. My pensions total £8300 pa, plus I get some interest from prudently saving over the years. The tax office confirmed I will pay £195 more tax but no tax credits as I have savings, so even with this latest change I'm still £75 worse off!
Brian, llandudno,
Fight back! 8:00p.m. Friday 08/08/2008, congregate at your local Town Hall. Let them know enough is enough and stop wasting our hard earned money, at least until the "credit crunch" is over. freeze (lower!) petrol duty. Force banks to pass on OUR £50 billion to assist new mortgages not ignore it!
Russell Ewins, Barnet, Herts, England
The "mistake" Brown and Darling made wasn't miscalculating the effect of their policy on the poorest taxpayers; they knew exactly what that would be. Their mistake was assuming there would be no significant protest. In short, they underestimated their own backbenchers.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Debts and more debts. The country, surely, must be on the verge of bankrupcy. When will Brown, like Callaghan, go to the IMF with the begging bowl?
Tom, Crewe
The Government is being generous? With whose money?
Wakey, Wakey!
Glauca, London, UK
Sorry David Green but I can't sympathise with "over 65s earning over £40k p.a." who are now losing sleep over "£600 at 20% tax". Get real: the 10p fiasco affects £120 or £600 for people who are earning only £6000 a year so they really can't afford to lose that money. That's the point!!
James, Bristol,
Save billions by taking an axe to the Civil Service and the buearacries of local government - specifically, the swathes of useless middle management and senior management who add no value. The Guardian may scream about it (because they advertise for all these jobs) but we would all be better off
Mark, London, UK
A load of grumpy people post comments here. Talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth. The Government is being generous. I am not going to complain so well done Mr Brown/Darling. I am a Labour voter and always will be. Mr Brown should not listen to such nasty, spiteful people.
Tom, Crewe,
Can we get away from the 'unelected' PM jibe constantly and boringly repeated by those with no historical knowledge.
Eden,MacMillan,Douglas-Home,Callaghan and Major all became Prime Minister in mid-term.
Not one held an early election to validate his assumption of office.
John, Sheffield,
it is startling that the UK has lower social mobility than the U.S. (it does...look it up) considering how much money they pump into social welfare. everyone is taxed to death with so little to show for it. i went to a UK hospital for the first time a few weeks ago and literally walked out.
James, London, UK
How can the times say"there will be no losers" in A Darling's mini budget.
What of people over 65 earning over £40835. We will not receive the increased personal allowance, do not receive age related allowance because earnings are more than 28990 but will lose £600 worth of 20p tax. Is this ageist?
David Green, Ilford, Essex
The goverment accepts that abolising the 10p rate was a mistake. I can not understand why they can not introduce it agian instead of spending great effort to find cleaver ways to compensate those who lost out.
Suresh Kumar, wembley, middlesex
He gives some of the poorest workers - only some - their money back, he gives others more, ostensibly to help with fuel and food costs, and come September he'll increase the duty on fuel!
They lie, they deny, they evade.
Most of all, they are incompetent.
CS, Norwich, UK
Beware Crewe and Nantwich the last lot of votes Zanulab. bought in return for Northern Crock - 50% of the jobs are going - anyway. So much for political promises - but you all knew that didn't you when you voted for them- thrice?
Victor D., Chelmsford, Essex.,
So we borrow another 2.7 billion for a short term solution. The lowest paid in this country will find themselves in exactly the same position at the start of the next financial year and the arguments will start all over again. Mr.Brown nearly got away with it this year, but he's hoping to next year.
Peter, Brixham, Devon
On a day when 37 post offices will close here in the North East, for the Government to find £2.7billion to save Gordon Brown's skin is the most sickening act of political cynicism I have seen.
Michael, Durham, England
If Brown & Darling think they have got it right then why not call an election. That would leave no doubt if the policies of Gordon Brown are working.
The issue is clear UK PLC is in a mess and it will take the next goverment a number of years to fix the problem.
GB was not elctect to be PM.
John, Wolverhampton, UK
I think that we *should* welcome the move. The 10p tax band complicated the system, and so it is good that it is gone. The personal allowances are about half what the government considers is enough to live on, so should rise. Lowering the 40% makes the simplification cost nothing. More please!
Roger Pearse, Ipswich,
If we do not cut Public spending immediately we will have a sterling crisis. Who is going to leave their money in a UK account to be depreciated by inflation and sterling devaluation? That is the dilemna facing the BoE and Government.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
It strikes me that Darling has done exactly the right thing.
In the next budget he should lower or freeze the threshold for 40% to pay for it.
Re-distribution of wealth. As it should be.
Dave, Edinburgh, UK
One time bomb after another, can´t these politicians count? The 1.1 million who are not fully compensated are the poorest of the poor. Anyone with income of less than 10,500 pounds will still be paying more tax to subsidise the better off. Frank Field, bow your head in shame.
David Carr, Valencia, Spain
"a welcome reduction and simplification in personal taxes"
James Tumbridge.
Where on earth did the "simplification" come into it? Darling has now moved the starting rate for tax away from that for NI. This means complication not simplification!
Tony, Portsmouth, England
My grandchildren show greater fiscal wisdom with their pocket money than this chancellor and his boss do with the UKs finances. I suspect the cost of the votes they wish to buy is higher than they think.
mike gee, bournemouth, uk
Due to the unexpected escalation in fuel prices this year it is estimated that the Treasury will benefit to the tune of £9bn in additional taxes this financial year.
Darling hasn't even offset this tax change against that, he's borrowed to pay for it. It's heads I win, tails you lose to New Labou
John, Bournemouth,
Any business in this situation would immediately cut costs. Get the idea, Darling?
PaulD, Essex, UK
Let's be honest about this: the Labour Party has used £2.7 billion of OUR money to save Brown's job - because he surely would have gone if the Finance Bill were defeated. He may well, in the process, buy a win in Crewe & Nantwich, but he has also bought a lot of longer term problems as well.
Sam, London, UK
Anybody who has read any of the various articles/books from The Taxpayers Alliance will see the enormity of the scale of government waste. Therefore anybody with half a brain in government (alas sadly lacking) could find a myriad of opportunities to cut public spending.
Malcolm Bright, Port Andratx, Spain
more tax simplification please!just keep everything simpler.let's hope the queen's speech will come up with less lagislation but more efficiency.lagislate less but govern effectively.darling atleast calmed nerves but watch brown at PMQ today messing things up!the man is clumsy.he should go very soon
john small, canterbury, uk
its asad reflection of a lost empire, the movers and shakers are else where and the most expensive dole office in the country called the house of parliment its time to give power to scotland and wales and rid us of the cesspit westminister.
michael , cahersiveen-adams town, madness
Oh come off it David Mitchell, it's borrowing to announce a bare faced bribe the week before a by election. Nothing less.
Jonathan, Southend,
Gordon Mcbean and Co. are now addicted to buying votes. First it was 50 Billion to save the skins of the North East MP's, now its 2.7 Billion to save a seat in the North west. Can anyone work out the cost per voter? So that we'll have an idea how much he'll have to spend to buy the next election
Derek, swindon,
'Mr Darlings statement succeeded in its immediate goal: Labour MPs cheered....'
These would be the same delighted supporters of the 2007 Budget from Buggins Brown when he announced his tax cut and abolished the 10p rate?
m collins, Leeds,
The Government's reputation for prudence and sound financial management has been wiped out -at a stroke.
Of course--bribery is even worse, but that is a newer and now separate issue.
WILLIAM GRIERSON, Kimpton, UK
Once again the Tories are going to have to spend years sorting out Labour's financial mess.
robert everitt, wolverhampton,
There are two ways for the Chancellor to balance the books: increase taxation or reduce public spending. Just as Joe Bloggs is having to adjust his budget to fund the things that are essential like food and fuel, so should the government by cutting expenditure on things other than socially benefits.
Geoff Naylor, Winchester, England, UK
Do I have this right?
Tax allowances will be raised, but for this FY only? So next year the fiasco starts again, so it is all for a bye election.
Please someone correct me if Im wrong - and Im sure they will!
Bill Glanvill, Horsham, Sussex, England
The lengths this Government will go to, to become unelectable, in order to have nothing to do with the 2012 Olympics, amazes me.
ronnie, Bucks, uk
When this government finally falls the country will be in so much debt ,it will take years to recover.
Thank you ' prudence' Brown, you have 'Bean' a disaster. Your moral compass has lead the country straight on to the rocks.
Roger, swindon,
At last Gordon Brown has shown he is capable of listening and being flexible. Although this was undoubtedly mishandled at the start, the end result has been a welcome reduction and simplification in personal taxes at just the right time.
James Tumbridge, London, United Kingdom
It's perfectly sensible at this stage in the economic cycle to be borrowing more and pumping money into the economy. Darling sorted out the 10p debacle and provided a much need fiscal stimulus. It was exactly the right thing to do.
David Mitchell, Cambridge,
So now we can begin to add up the "Brown score"
(1) Selling gold at $280 ish - £2-3 billion?
(2) Pension raid - 10 years at £5 billion each year?
(3) Cost of PFI deals into the future? £100's of billion?
(4) Cost of final salary schemes for doctors, administrators etc etc?
Great chancellor!!
Mike , Newbury, UK