Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
David Cameron has got the right analysis on public spending but has so far failed to come up with credible answers. His speech yesterday in Birmingham on “living within our means” was frustratingly incomplete: a plan with a hole in the middle.
The Cameron strategy since 2005 has been to put economic stability before tax cuts and to improve public services for everyone, not help a few to opt out. But a deteriorating fiscal position limits the scope for tax cuts and on the spending side.
Mr Cameron summed up the dilemma: “In the decades ahead there will be pressure to spend more on the essentials: care for the older generation, equipment for our Armed Forces, more prisons and police to keep us safe. At the same time, we have reached the limits of acceptable taxation and borrowing.”
The familiar Tory mantra about sharing the proceeds of growth does not get you very far. Over time, spending should decline as a share of national income and taxes should fall, but as a short-term plan it is almost as elusive as Mr Brown's golden rule on borrowing. It all depends where you start. If borrowing is already too high, as it is, and the economy is likely to grow below trend, and could even contract for a period, “sharing the proceeds” is largely a well-meaning aspiration.
The Tory Right would like Mr Cameron to abandon this formula, which involves accepting Labour's plans for 2 per cent real growth in spending for the next couple of years, but a tighter squeeze on spending, let alone a real cut, is impracticable in the short term. It will be very hard to achieve even after 2010 in view of the extra spending demands that Mr Cameron outlined.
Many Tories respond by saying “cut waste” but, in a passage of blunt home truths, Mr Cameron said that people did not believe this approach at the 2005 election when, based on the James Report, a long list of efficiency savings was added up to produce a great big total to be allocated to debt reduction, spending increases and a tax cut: “The Government efficiency drive is one of the oldest tricks in the book.” Simplistic lists of cuts naively overestimate potential savings.
Instead, making government more efficient should be part of a far deeper review of the role of the State. Quite right. Unfortunately, Mr Cameron's solutions do not bridge the gap. Reducing the long-term demands on the State by tackling social and welfare problems is, even if successful, going to take a very long time to produce savings. There is a strong case for reforming public services through choice, competition and local control. This should produce efficiency savings in the long term but in the short term expanding capacity may cost more. Using private sector expertise to save money and improve service delivery is hardly new, nor is it a panacea.
Mr Cameron has good intentions and is rightly trying to lower expectations but there is no alternative to some of the tough decisions that the Thatcher Government took to remove the State from many activities. And it was not until her second term that the tax and spending burdens (as shares of national income) began to fall. Any incoming Cameron government in 2010, or whenever, is going to have to concentrate on sorting out a probably messy inheritance.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Yes it's a mess, many billions have been wasted and daily millions are squandered by Labour, but they have only flourished because of a very weak opposition party. It's time to up the anti and spell out the quangos, consultants and assemblies that are going to be ditched, and quickly.
Roger, Surrey,
It brings to mind the words used by a losing Tory Chancellor to the incoming Labour replacement. 'Sorry about the mess old boy, good luck' In fact every time Labour won a General Election it was because the Tories had screwed up the economy. I bet you can't wait to see what happens next time.
Maudling, Odiham, england
Labours ideals of 'Fairer society - does not work -
My taxes on a low NHS salary pay for all those lazy scroungers on benefits-
One article I read - from a person on benefits - said it is not worth him going to work unless he can get £300 per week after tax - how much benefit is he getting???
Margaret, Bristol, UK
Good article. David Cameron was against the removal of the 10p tax band but stubbornly refused to commit to its restoration and he recently criticised post office and school closures in the countryside which I think would be a natural target for "efficiency savings".
Chris, Birmingham,
The last time the Tories were in the power every year at the Tory Conference every speaker used to stand up and announce how many cuts he was proud to make. The Chancellor would then announce an interest cut if it were needed or not and all would worship the leader. Surely we are not repeating.
How, Odiham, england
Any comments that refer to a govt being thieves, or stealing or money etc.. sounds moronic. Labour aren't sitting on a big pile of money somewhere; they aren't burning it. Even the waste (which is in the eye of the beholder) filters down into paypackets which then goes into local & nat econ. Sigh.
Ezra Mayo, Oxford,
The biggest budget eater by far is the ballooning welfare system. Get to grips with the benefit culture and there should be plenty to go round. However, as the author states, this will take many years to work through and wil prove unpopular. I hope that DC has the courage to see it through.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
If parties can only announce their policies when they know the facts how on earth did John Major promise 'Tax Cuts Year on Year' in 1992? I seem to remember Heath doing the same in 1970 and Thatcher in 1979. You may not remember but instead of lowering taxes Geoffry Howe increased them.
Selwyn, Odiham, england
Is Labour pursuing a 'scorched-earth' policy?
They know they are going out at the next election so are they sowing the seeds of disaster to hamstring the Tories and hasten a Labour return.
Can Labour think long term?
Olaf, Broxburn, UK
you are right about the inheritance being messy - bit of an understatement. BUT you are wrong that it is difficult to fix. It simply requires an acceptance that much of the state machine is useless and should be scrapped - JUST DO IT!
Alastair Harris, DERBY,
For the last 15 years or so, if a Tory mentioned cutting expenditure as a percentage of GDP, the Labour party, echoed by the press, has screamed "Hospital closures! School closures!" Cameron's speech yesterday was dipping his toe in the water to test the temperature. Expect him to jump in soon.
Chas, London, UK
The way forward is to identify all the useless legislation that exists on the statute books and then repeal it. Then those charged with it's oversight can either be disbanded or redirected to exclusively useful work like policing, treating patients, teaching etc.
John, London, UK
Cameron will lay waste to public services just like Thatcher and Major before him. Oh, but he does have an education policy - children to read by 6 and be in bed by 7 I think.
Pat, SE13,
Your track record of negativity towards Labour is heavy on distortion of reality....no surprise there...............The lemming type avalanche of support for your views isnt surprising either........................Gordon Brown handled the economy very well for a decade.......be more realistic
Eric, Southwick, England
One of the big political questions is whether the public actually want the state to withdraw from many activities.
After all, Thatcher's reforms were hardly popular and look at today's rection to the closure of sub post offices.
Richard, Plymouth,
Just like the Queens Speech, Labour taunts the tories with policy issues and then steals them without any conscience.
Until the tories get in government they have no idea of the financial mess the country may be in. They are playing a waiting game on policy, the election manifesto is the key issue
Mike Palmor, Sheffield, UK
Short-term a new government can borrow all it needs. When challenged on the true National debt of over £2 Trillion the reply is that the government can borrow unlimited sums because so far noone can conceive of the government going bust. Interest is not a problem as inflation and tax wipe it out.
Brian Gilbert, HAMPTON, Middx
This is one of the most evil aspect's of Labour's rule. They have tried very hard to pre-empt the country's options under a future government by creating a set of accounts so dire that it cannot readily be improved. They have very nearly succeeded.
Ubi, Edinburgh, UK
Firstly, until the Tories can pore through the finances, they are as wise as the General Public. How many times do they need to keep making this vallid point?. Seem's to me, Labour keep yakkering on just to glean anything to thieve, and as usual announce as their own. UK probably bankrupt.
Beverley, Bilston, England