Labour MPs are right to be gloomy. Not only is their current position awful but there does not appear to be any plausible way out: neither dumping Gordon Brown nor changing policies.

Labour’s only, very slim, hope is that the economic downturn proves to be both shallow and over quickly. Most forecasters, however, are gloomy about the outlook for next year. The latest Populus poll for The Times, done over the weekend, points to a collapse of economic confidence.

Despite variations between polls, the underlying trends are clear, with Labour between 24 and 28 per cent, and the Tories between 43 and 47 per cent. According to Populus just over a half (54 per cent) of those who voted Labour in 2005 say they would do so now, while the Tories have retained 84 per cent of their 2005 vote and the Liberal Democrats 67 per cent of theirs.

Labour is now in its worst poll position for a quarter of a century and the Tories in their strongest for 20 years. Labour support has been below 30 per cent in 26 of the last 28 published polls since late April; the last time this happened was under Michael Foot in 1982-83. The key factor has been the economy. The one in eight of those who voted Labour in 2005 but who have since switched to the Tories is among the most pessimistic about the prospects for the country as a whole, by a margin of 11 to 86 per cent (on well v badly).

The weekend’s discussions with the unions, the Warwick 2 meeting, have not helped Labour’s image. By a two to one margin, 60 to 31 per cent, voters think that “Labour’s reliance on the unions for so much of its funding is bound to result in the Government giving in to the unions on some policy issues”. Moreover, the number thinking that “new Labour is never going to return to being old Labour” has fallen from 73 to 64 per cent since last September. The public is sympathetic to some union demands: 83 per cent saying that 18 to 21-year-olds should have the right to the full national minimum wage. The meeting backed a reduction from 22 to 21 years. Narrowly, by 48 to 44 per cent, voters oppose any relaxation in the laws against secondary strike action.

The grimmest message comes in questions about what would make Labour more likely to win the next election. Not, apparently, a big Cabinet reshuffle by Mr Brown, while the number thinking that significant policy changes would help has fallen sharply since May. Moreover, the proportion believing that getting rid of Mr Brown would improve Labour’s chances has barely changed since May. Mr Brown may go but the poll suggests that this is far from being a solution for a party that has been largely written off by the electorate.

Times Recommends

• We need bankers more than they need us
• Rooms need a view. Hoteliers don’t
• Wootton Bassett, outpost of lost England