Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Labour MPs are right to be gloomy. Not only is their current position awful but there does not appear to be any plausible way out: neither dumping Gordon Brown nor changing policies.
Labour’s only, very slim, hope is that the economic downturn proves to be both shallow and over quickly. Most forecasters, however, are gloomy about the outlook for next year. The latest Populus poll for The Times, done over the weekend, points to a collapse of economic confidence.
Despite variations between polls, the underlying trends are clear, with Labour between 24 and 28 per cent, and the Tories between 43 and 47 per cent. According to Populus just over a half (54 per cent) of those who voted Labour in 2005 say they would do so now, while the Tories have retained 84 per cent of their 2005 vote and the Liberal Democrats 67 per cent of theirs.
Labour is now in its worst poll position for a quarter of a century and the Tories in their strongest for 20 years. Labour support has been below 30 per cent in 26 of the last 28 published polls since late April; the last time this happened was under Michael Foot in 1982-83. The key factor has been the economy. The one in eight of those who voted Labour in 2005 but who have since switched to the Tories is among the most pessimistic about the prospects for the country as a whole, by a margin of 11 to 86 per cent (on well v badly).
The weekend’s discussions with the unions, the Warwick 2 meeting, have not helped Labour’s image. By a two to one margin, 60 to 31 per cent, voters think that “Labour’s reliance on the unions for so much of its funding is bound to result in the Government giving in to the unions on some policy issues”. Moreover, the number thinking that “new Labour is never going to return to being old Labour” has fallen from 73 to 64 per cent since last September. The public is sympathetic to some union demands: 83 per cent saying that 18 to 21-year-olds should have the right to the full national minimum wage. The meeting backed a reduction from 22 to 21 years. Narrowly, by 48 to 44 per cent, voters oppose any relaxation in the laws against secondary strike action.
The grimmest message comes in questions about what would make Labour more likely to win the next election. Not, apparently, a big Cabinet reshuffle by Mr Brown, while the number thinking that significant policy changes would help has fallen sharply since May. Moreover, the proportion believing that getting rid of Mr Brown would improve Labour’s chances has barely changed since May. Mr Brown may go but the poll suggests that this is far from being a solution for a party that has been largely written off by the electorate.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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Gordon Brown will lead the labour party into third place at the next election. The economy is a disaster with the rich and the workshy doing well in the last 11years. Gordon Browns 10p
tax will live with him at the election.The Liberals will take seats
of labour Vincent Cable is a big plus.
philip dalton, Hull, U K .
What I fail to understand is why H.M., to whom the armed forces pledge alliegance, has not instructed them to round up and lock up the British-hating traitors in Downing St. for selling us to the European fascists that failed to take us in the '40s. I'd put my money on them backing Her, before them.
John Lee, Ellesmere Port SSR, England
There is a lot of talk about Labour beng massacred but they will be hammered in the South of England and Tories will take 30 or so Wibble Dem seats in England. Tories will be the next government but this is a Tory paper read by, mostly Tories, so the message shouldn't disappoint.
Braes of Glenmiller, northumbria, Britain
Although a Conservative, I hold to the view that Labour are still the most likely candidate for victory at any pending General Election. David Cameron has the appearance of changing his stand with the wind. Even if Labour are a bad choice they are consistantly a bad choice people can fell secure.
Richard Jones, Houghton le Spring, Tyne and Wear
The Policies of both parties are not that far appart-hence Blairism is not dead at all - It is Camerons ability to think on his feet that does it.
Its tht simple
Malcolm Perry, Stroud Glos, U.K.
Will Nu Labour do anything about the ever increasing gangs of foreigners of all colours congregating on the streets of my city, glowering at the men and leering, catcalling, groping at the women.? The city i grew up in has gone, replaced by something much more malevolent.
steve, swansea, uk
Neil. Gloucester.
The Queen, as you put it the unelected Head of State, has dissolved a Government. She dissolved the Whitlam government in Australia around 30 plus years ago.The Whitlam government was a Labour government. The provenance is there; though unlikely to happen here.
M. Butcher, W-s-M, England
What does labour stand for?
Tax, removal of our liberty, less choice, more tax, arrogance, stealth tax, not listening to or doing things for the UK public and more tax!
Sadly, POWER CORRUPTS and Labour are misguided, insisting that they know what is better for me!
I DISAGREE...!
Clive, Cambridge,
At the next election Labour will be destroyed in England; Plaid Cymru & SNP will win Wales & Scotland. Labour's botched devolution chickens are coming home. The West Lothian question matters but Labour daren't deal with it. They have too many Scots MPs/Ministers but need them to win in Westminster.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
The daftest policy proposal of all to come out of Warwick was that to reduce the voting age to 16. What on earth are Labour on? How can you give the vote to children who cannot buy drink and cigarettes, who cannot serve in the armed forces and who are not allowed to drive a car?
Richard Marriott, Kidderminster, England
the fact is we are fed up with Zanulabour and their arrogance. Brown is a feeble duffer but it's the crew that back him that we loathe and despise
peter c, devizes, wessex
once labour broke its word and had a free vote and interduced a full smoking ban and then followed it up by breaking another promise on the eu treaty they were doomed. the governments own figures say ther is 18million smokers in the uk the turn out for the last election was 28mill doomed is right
brian rice, halifax, uk
To Chris and Russ. Our unelected Head of State is actually a puppet of the politicians, and it would be almost impossible for her to "dissolve" Parliament without being called upon to do so by the Prime Minister.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
The Labour Party, Nu, or old is morally bankrupt and facing a financial crisis.
Can they get real now?
Or preferably go away, never to return!
Alan Harvey, Fleet, UK
I agree with Russ that "The Queen needs to disolve parliament and give the electorate the chance to choose which party they want to take us through these troubled times. Maybe if enough correspondence and emails to Buckingham Palace were sent then she may exercise her rights on behalf of the nation
Chris Patrick Moore, Huddersfield, England
Brown going would make no difference. How can you vote for a party which takes away your liberty ie whats wrong with a sepperate room for smokers.Closes your local post office,and doing its very best to tax you out of your car.
cliff williamson, spilsby linconshire, england
Labour is not largely written off... It is finished as a political force and no change of prime minister will alter the view of the electorate, whom have rejected a man, whom arrogantly pushed his way into Number 10, despite the warnings of Tony Blair.
Richard, Jersey,
I don't care about Mr Brown or the rotten,corrupt,incompetent Labour Party, I care about this country. The Queen needs to dissolve parliament and call a general election.
Russ, Aberdeen, Scotland