Gordon Brown faces an obstacle course over the next year that would test any Olympic athlete. It is like an elaborate Westminster version of snakes and ladders with many more of the former than the latter.

August Most MPs are on holiday. There will be rumbling in the bushes from disillusioned Blairite ex-ministers, but nothing will happen. Mr Brown ends his Suffolk holiday this week before going to Scotland and then taking a five-day trip to Beijing for the end of the Olympics, but his mobile phone and e-mail have been busy as he prepares his counter-attack. The Beijing trip will be his first contact with the media, so expect stories about his autumn plans.

September Ministers expect a reshuffle in the first few days of the month. Will Mr Brown seek to bind in his critics and potential successors such as David Miliband? Plotters hope that low morale will lead to a challenge to Mr Brown, but there is no sign of any coup leader. Mr Brown should survive, not least because a change of prime minister could create irresistible pressure for an early election. Two Cabinet meetings, including one in the Midlands, and a political discussion are planned for the second and third weeks. Expect Mr Brown to reveal the broad thrust of help for housing and on fuel prices, possibly in a speech to the TUC on September 9. The attitude of union leaders will be crucial. The Labour conference starts on September 20; Mr Brown speaks on the 23rd. Can he revive the party's spirits?

October Parliament returns on October 6, a key test of the mood of MPs. There will be a difficult Commons vote on the final stages of the Embryology Bill, and the Lords are expected to reject 42-day detention in the anti-terrorism Bill. The Pre-Budget Report comes later in the month with proposals on housing, fuel, a full compensation package for 10p tax band losers and possible changes to vehicle excise duty rises on cars, with new debt rules to permit higher borrowing. There will be a tricky EU summit on the Irish response to the Lisbon treaty referendum defeat.

November The Lords and Commons clash over 42 days. Mr Brown will seek an early meeting with the winner of the US elections on the 4th.

December A late Queen's Speech on the 3rd will aim to show that the Government is still full of ideas, but will contain few controversial Bills.

January/February Hope for mild winter to reduce problem of high gas and electricity prices. Will inflation be past its peak? Unemployment may be rising.

March The Budget. Will the Chancellor be able to offer light at the end of the tunnel? Labour MPs are likely to be twitchy over the trend in the polls and possible further by-election defeats.

June Local and European elections will be held together on the 4th. Labour is likely to do very badly because county councils were last contested on general election day, which helped the party. Also, the Tories should do better in the Euros than in 2004, when the UK Independence Party did very well. A bad Labour showing could trigger a leadership storm.

Mr Brown still has several cards in his hand but even if, as still looks probable, he survives this autumn, there could be renewed pressure over his leadership next summer.

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