Seldom has disillusionment been so quick and so complete. The public have given up on Gordon Brown. That is the verdict not only of the regular monthly polls but also of Populus's annual conference survey. But is there any hope of recovery before the next election?

The first instalment of the conference poll offers few hopes. Mr Brown will no doubt see it as unfair that he is now seen to be to the left of his position last year and even the Liberal Democrats. But perception is what matters. Moreover, separate questions show how much the public's view of him has changed since he was Chancellor. Back in March 2007, Populus asked voters their view of Mr Brown's record and how he would perform as Prime Minister. Fifty-three per cent said that he was a good chancellor. Surprisingly, that number has now risen to 60per cent.

Even 18 months ago, more believed that he would not be a good prime minister than he would be a good one, by 57 per cent to 30per cent, reflecting the uncertainty before his takeover. Now 23 per cent believe that he is a good prime minister and 74 per cent believe that he is a bad one. Men and working-class voters have been the biggest switchers.

The Brown camp hopes that Labour's fortunes will improve with economic recovery. The signs are not promising. Populus asked voters if they agreed that “if the economic situation improves dramatically over the next year or two, Labour will have a good chance of winning the next election”. Only 31 per cent agreed, including 63 per cent of Labour voters. But 67 per cent of all voters, including 36 per cent of Labour ones, agreed that “even if the economic situation improves dramatically over the next year or two, there are many other reasons why it is time for a change”. The Tories know all about voteless recoveries from the mid-Nineties, but the economy was much stronger then than it is likely to be in early 2010.

A contrary view has been put by Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, in the latest Fabian Review. He argues that the next election could be more open than it now appears. He offers several reasons: Britain's tilted electoral geography favours Labour; and the party's current problems are not as bad as they were in the past. This is intriguing, and perhaps Panglossian, rather than persuasive. But don't bet yet against a hung Parliament. If the Tories are ahead, this would mean the end of Labour in office.

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