Peter Riddell, Political Briefing
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Gordon Brown needs to talk openly about the recession: and is being urged to do so by close Cabinet allies, including Lord Mandelson. Until now, Mr Brown has been wary of even referring to a recession. I cannot find the word in the almost hourly torrent of statements and interviews he has given recently. This is, apparently, for fear of giving ammunition to the Opposition.
This reluctance is very much in character. His instinctive dislike of admitting vulnerability leads him into adopting euphemisms: investment instead of spending, and never, never tax increases. The big rise in national insurance contributions announced in 2002 to finance extra spending on the NHS was never described by him as a tax increase – though it was – but was described as an additional contribution.
This approach has invariably been counter-productive in the longer term since it has appeared slippery. Similarly, his reluctance to be accused of nationalisation led both to evasions and to unnecessary delay in taking over Northern Rock.
Mr Brown has been best when he has been direct, as, recently, over the banking crisis. His boldness in taking forward the rescue plan has earned him plaudits. But this is only phase one. Apart from various international initiatives, the focus will now shift to “the real economy”: particularly in the light of yesterday’s figures showing a sharp rise in unemployment, with fears of much worse to come. The last two weekly meetings of the full Cabinet, as well as the grandly titled National Economic Council, have discussed what the Government can do. The main agenda of the council is ameliorative measures, such as prompt payment of bills by government departments, retraining in new skills, matching vacancies and available workers, new green projects etc.
But language also matters. Several ministers have been urging candour. They argue that Mr Brown needs to admit to the recession now in order to prepare the public for the shocks ahead in redundancies and company closures. Otherwise, voters will accuse the Government of not being prepared.
This is part of a broader political debate about whether Mr Brown can use the small bounce in his poll ratings to take the initiative over “the real economy”. The Tories, who have been forced on the defensive over the past fortnight, believe they can counter-attack over the recession, seeking to pin the blame for policy failures on the Government.
It is partly a question of whether voters concentrate on the past and present, or the future: about which party appears more credibile in offering a recovery plan. This turns on the issue of security. Sometimes this has been framed as security from terrorism or crime and disorder. But, for the moment, it is economic security: fear of loss of homes, jobs and pension income. Of course, the Brown Government starts at a big disadvantage. But the debate has changed since the summer, and the battle is now on to frame its terms. But before he can begin to take the initiative, he has to use the word recession.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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