Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Obamamania takes hold of Britain. Only a week after his election, President-elect Barack Obama is already well on the way to transforming British views of the United States, according to the latest Populus poll for The Times (for more details, see www.populus.co.uk).
His popularity is stellar. According to the Populus leader index (on a 0 to 10 scale), Mr Obama is on 7.08. This is by far the highest figure recorded for any leader in the nearly six-year life of the index. The previous peak was 5.75 for Tony Blair in May 2003, and Gordon Brown is now on 5.04.
The Obama victory has led to an immediate warming in British attitudes towards America, in contrast to the highly unpopular President George W. Bush.
In June 2006 three fifths of British voters (62 per cent) agreed that, if Mr Brown took over as prime minister, “he should be less close to George Bush than Tony Blair”. But the position has now been reversed, with 61 per cent of voters saying that Mr Brown “should be as close to Barack Obama as Tony Blair was to George W. Bush”.
The number thinking that America is a force for good in the world has risen from 44 to 54 per cent since June 2006. Even more striking, the proportion believing “it is important for Britain’s long-term security that we have a close and special relationship with the US” has jumped by 22 points to 80 per cent. The risk is of excessive expectations, which are likely to be disappointed.
There has been a small decline in those saying that Britain’s future lies more with Europe than America, down by three points to 62 per cent. In many ways the pro-European figure is strikingly high and is 59 per cent even among Tory voters.
British politicians have been competing for the Obama mantle. Mr Brown has succeeded in the short term, but may not do so in the long term. Mr Brown is seen as closest to Mr Obama “in terms of beliefs and policies” by 35 per cent, against 25 per cent for David Cameron. The Prime Minister is also seen as “most likely to build a strong working relationship with Barack Obama, representing Britain’s best interests”, by 41 per cent, against 33 per cent for Mr Cameron.
However, intriguingly, Mr Cameron is ahead of Mr Brown, by 34 to 30 per cent, in representing “the kind of change and progress in Britain that Barack Obama says he represents in America”. Despite Mr Brown’s advantage now as the leader best able to handle the recession, Mr Cameron is ahead, by 42 to 35 per cent, on leading Britain forward after the next general election.
But no British politician can yet achieve either the popularity of Mr Obama or excite and enthuse his followers in a remotely comparable way. The search for a British Obama is likely to be long, and, in the short term, fruitless.
The impact of Barack Obama in percentage terms (change since June 2006 in brackets)
80% (up 22 points) It is important for Britain's long-term security that we have a close and special relationship with the US
62% (down 3 points) Britain's future lies more with Europe than America
61% Gordon Brown should be as close to Barack Obama as Tony Blair was to George W. Bush
54% (up 10 points) America is a force for good in the world
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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