If Gordon Brown wanted to call an early general election, he should have done so last month. It is already too late. Labour would almost certainly lose its overall Commons majority, and probably fall behind the Tories, in a contest next spring. Nonetheless, senior Conservatives have become jittery. Some of David Cameron’s inner circle were very worried a week ago by the Populus poll for The Times showing that the Tory lead over Labour was down to four points. This nervousness has been reinforced by subsequent polls.

The uncertainty has led to hyperactivity by Mr Cameron. Scarcely a day passes without a speech or an interview, a new economic initiatitive or piece of repositioning. The net effect is to blur the party’s image and to confuse voters. So yesterday was about distancing his party from those in the City suspected of financial wrongdoing, bashing the bad bankers in the headlines.

Mr Brown has certainly had a good autumn. He has appeared strong and decisive, the man to handle the banking crisis and the recession. That has fuelled the masochism paradox: that the worse things are, the more the incumbent party benefits. But that combination will not last.

At present, relatively few people have been directly affected by the recession. But they will in the new year. Talk to any senior businessman and you will hear a story of gloom, and forecasts of big redundancies early next year. Unemployment could soar. In one sense the collapse of Woolworths may symbolise the turn for lots of voters bemused by the banking crisis. Moreover, the sharp fall in interest rates is already starting to produce protests from savers, who not only outnumber borrowers but also, being older, are more likely to vote.

The counterview is that worried voters will stick to the leader they can trust: hence the talk of an early election. But I am sceptical. When the pain really starts, people will blame Labour. The party could be back below 30 per cent by midsummer. Parallels have been drawn with 1992 when the Tories won despite a recession. But the parties were then level-pegging in the polls before the election; now, the Opposition is still, on average, five points or so ahead. Moreover, Mr Brown can no longer play the change card as John Major successfully did then.

Calling an election will focus voters’ minds. While a majority respect Mr Brown’s actions this autumn, a large number, according to YouGov, are worried about the longer-term costs of higher public borrowing. And Mr Cameron is still ahead as a leader for the future. But the Tories have not clarified their economic message. They oppose a further fiscal stimulus, including the VAT cut, because it will increase an already excessive level of borrowing. But their response to Labour charges of inaction can seem imprecise. Guaranteeing bank loans, which the Government will do to some extent anyway, may not sound enough. The lack of a clear alternative may put off wavering voters.

Moreover, despite boundary changes, the Tories still need a higher share of the total vote to win the same number of MPs as Labour because of the way that votes are distributed between safe and marginal seats. So a hung Parliament with no overall majority is a distinct possibility. Some senior ministers privately concede that this is their best hope. But Labour would then be seen as losers, and the Tories as gainers. That is a huge risk for Mr Brown to take, a year before he has to call an election.

Times Recommends

• Resist urge to throw voters red meat
• Slay sacred cows and be candid
• We cannot let these 100 deaths deflect us