The recession is still a worrying headline for most voters, not an imminent personal threat. The new Populus poll for The Times highlights the paradox that, despite all the doom, and Gordon Brown’s hectic pace of initiatives and summits, most people are neither panicking nor that pessimistic. Are they, therefore, in denial? Or is there a more rational explanation?

The poll, taken over the weekend, shows a plunge in confidence about the prospects for the economy over the next year, with 79 per cent thinking it will do “badly”, against only 18 per cent “well” (compared with 66 to 31 per cent in November). But there is a much smaller gap over the prospects for them and their families, with 50 per cent “badly” and 46 per cent “well”, (from 44 to 51 per cent two months ago). So there is now a gap of 57 points between personal optimism and public pessimism, compared with 21 per cent in July and level pegging from 2003 to 2007.

Similarly, when Populus asked which of 13 “worrying aspects of Britain’s economic downturn” concerned them most, the list is headed by the rising cost of living; the prospect of higher taxes to pay for measures taken to address the downturn; fears of a serious, long-lasting recession; rising public borrowing; and printing money leading to higher inflation. Bottom of the list come fears of falling property prices; risk of losing jobs; and low interest rates reducing the return on savings. Women are more worried than men on each of the 13 measures.

If the recession is as bad, and lengthy, as many economists are suggesting, this looks a strangely head-in-the-sand response. Yet this is not as odd as it appears. Most people have not yet been directly affected by redundancies. Indeed, many are doing pretty well, thanks to the slowdown in inflation. That applies especially to those with multi-year pay deals in the public sector. Moreover, the state pension will rise in April by 5 per cent, and other benefits by even more. Half of housebuyers with flexible rate mortgages will be enjoying big savings in their outgoings.

This picture has to be heavily qualified, not least for those who have lost their jobs. Higher costs of domestic fuel will hit many pensioners, while lower interest rates are squeezing those dependent on savings.

At the same time people are worried about the broader economic outlook and have largely bought into the Conservative message about the longer-term costs of anti-recession measures.

The position could get much worse for Labour if/when more voters lose their jobs. So while Mr Brown is still just holding his own against David Cameron on handling the economy and the recession, the public could easily turn against him.

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