The publication of an 87-page glossy statement on public services shows that senior ministers believe that this is still a vote-winner for Labour. And they may be right, to judge by the latest Populus poll for The Times over the weekend.

The poll should give the Tories pause for thought. On all policy issues, their rating has fallen since last September, while Labour's rating has remained flat, or even risen slightly.

On improving the NHS, Labour, on 35 per cent, is now 8 points ahead, against 2 points six months ago. On schools, Labour is on 33 per cent, a 5-point lead, against one point previously. On affordable housing, Labour is on 34 per cent, 12 points ahead, against 10 points. Labour is also narrowly ahead on welfare reform at 32 to 30 per cent (not previously asked). This shows how far the Tories have to go to win public trust on what have been strong Labour issues although, unexpectedly, the Tories do lead by 5 points as the best party on the NHS among public sector workers.

The Tories have smaller leads on crime and antisocial behaviour of 9 points, half the previous gap, and on immigration and asylum of 11 points, down from 17 points. Crucially, they have an advantage over Labour on managing the economy (6 points); on getting the right balance between taxes and spending (5 points); and dealing with the recession (3 points).

The new paper, masterminded by Liam Byrne at the Cabinet Office, is all about a greater say for patients, parents etc. The aim is to provide reassurance about services during and after the downturn. In his introduction, Gordon Brown tantalisingly says that in “this new era, hard questions must be asked about the nature of government”. But no answers are provided about how the balance between the State and the individual might shift, and who will pay. The only certainty is that very painful news about the financing of public services is in the pipeline.

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