A surge in support for smaller and fringe parties looks likely at the European elections on June 4, according to a new Populus poll for The Times.

The poll, undertaken between last Friday and Sunday, suggests that Labour, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats will together win 79 per cent of votes cast, against 87 per cent on the main national voting intention question asked at the same time. (For more details see www.populus.co.uk.) The Tories are put on 34 per cent, against 25 per cent for Labour and 20 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

This leaves 21 per cent spread between the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, the UK Independence Party, the British National Party, the Greens and tiny fringe groups. The numbers backing each party are small and, given the margin of error, have to be treated with caution. Support for the BNP is put at 2 per cent, but this could well be a big underestimate since voters may be reluctant to declare their support for the party to a pollster.

Moreover, backing for these parties could rise further before polling day, as happened in previous European elections. There were late rises in support for the Greens in 1989 and UKIP in 2004. These increases were not sustained at subsequent general elections.

Backing for UKIP is put at 6 per cent, compared with 16.2 per cent in 2004 — when it pushed the Liberal Democrats into fourth place — and the Greens are on 5 per cent. The other fringe parties are making little impact. Just one respondent backed the Jury Team, the new independent grouping and challenger to mainstream politics set up by Sir Paul Judge, the former Conservative chief executive.

A third of those interviewed (34 per cent) said they would definitely vote in the European elections, compared with a 38 per cent turnout in 2004 and the 51 per cent who said they would definitely vote in a general election.

The poll suggests that voters are in sceptical mood: 58 per cent agree that Britain has given the EU too much power, including a clear majority of supporters of all main parties. Twenty-eight per cent say the balance is about right and 6 per cent say too little power has been given to the EU. If other countries ratify the Lisbon treaty, 82 per cent say that Britain should hold a referendum on the issue. Just 13 per cent disagree.

The poll contains a blow to Tony Blair’s hopes of becoming EU president if the Lisbon treaty goes through: 63 per cent are against his appointment, compared with 34 per cent in favour. On the European Parliament, 61 per cent of those interviewed said it had a positive impact on the lives of ordinary people — yet 58 per cent saw it as “an irrelevant talking shop and a gravy train for its members”.

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