Peter Riddell: analysis
Win tickets to the ATP finals
Demands for electoral reform are invariably about political advantage. So Alan Johnson’s endorsement of the plan produced by the late Lord Jenkins of Hillhead in October 1998 invokes comparison with the reaction to the death of Metternich, the wily Austrian statesman of the 19th century — “Now what did he mean by that?”
First and foremost, Mr Johnson wants to present himself as a political reformer at a time of turmoil regarding MPs: in his own words, overhauling the engine, not just cleaning the upholstery. But his means of doing so are bold and unexpected.
The Jenkins report seemed to have been long forgotten. The commission was set up after Labour’s 1997 victory to honour a joint agreement on constitutional reform with the Lib Dems. The recommendations balanced several factors: the preservation of the constituency link; giving more voters a say in the outcome; and retaining the possibility of single-party government when the winner was well ahead (as in 1983, 1987, 1997 and 2001, but not 1992 or 2005).
The Jenkins plan involved a hybrid system called AV plus. About four fifths of MPs would be elected, as now, for single-member constituencies but on the basis of the alternative vote. AV involves listing candidates in order one, two, three so a winner has to secure a half of the preferences plus one. This is unlike the first-past-the-post system, where a winner just has to be ahead of the runner-up.
Jenkins argued that AV on its own was unacceptable “because in anything like present circumstances it might increase rather than reduce disproportionality” (between votes cast and seats won). Consequently, he urged a top-up of between 100 and 120 MPs elected through a second vote from counties and metropolitan districts to reduce this imbalance. This would ensure that where, say, Labour had won all the seats in an area, the top-up would go to the Tories and Liberal Democrats.
The report was immediately rejected by Jack Straw, then, as now, in charge of constitutional reform. He reflected the hostility of a majority of the Cabinet and Labour MPs, and Tony Blair did not feel committed enough to back the report. Nothing has happened since then. However, all the devolved bodies — in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London (as well as the European Parliament) — have been set up using a form of proportional representation.
Since then, and especially as Labour’s standing has declined, there has been a revival of interest in AV in the Cabinet and among left-wing think-tanks: even Mr Straw has expressed interest in re-examining the issue. The Conservatives remain strongly opposed to any proportional system.
Mr Johnson’s proposal that a referendum be held on the choice between AV plus and first-past-the-post on the same day as the next general election is intended to portray Labour as reformers even though there would be no government recommendation. If the outcome of the general election were a hung Parliament, but voters backed AV plus, there would be a strong incentive for the Lib Dems to support Labour, since the Tories would oppose the change. So what Mr Johnson is really talking about is an attempted Labour rescue plan or lifeboat in the face of the storm of public disillusionment.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
36-month car lease
on contract hire for
£359.99 plus VAT pm
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
The UK's leading alternative to showroom finance.
Finance packages tailored to your needs.
Minimum loan of £15,000
Car Insurance
£12,578 per annum
The Independent Housing Ombudsman
London
Competitive
Barclaycard
Not Specified
The Sheppard Trust
London
£80-95,000
Clay McGuire Executive Selection
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Book now & save over £100pp.
11 cool resorts, lowest prices... Early Booking offers 15 Nov.
20% off selected Azores holidays taken in October with Sunvil Discovery
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.