Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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The Government limps on. Gordon Brown managed to carry out his reshuffle, a necessary first step towards short-term survival. But hanging on is a long way from a credible relaunch. His authority remains severely damaged by this week’s events. The personal self-confidence he displayed at his evening news conference is not widely shared.
The long-term future of Mr Brown is still in doubt. He is in a similar position to Margaret Thatcher in her final year after the “stalking horse” challenge in late 1989, vulnerable to further setbacks. Another scandal, or by-election defeat (possibly in Norwich North after the resignation of Ian Gibson) could destabilise his position. And Mr Brown’s list of enemies on the Labour backbenches is growing.
The dreadful local election results, Labour’s worst ever, underline just how unpopular the party and Mr Brown are; and that is before the European results tomorrow evening. Not only did Labour’s share of the vote fall, but it did very badly in its Northern heartlands. The Conservatives won their target councils and, even though share of the vote fell short of a breakthrough, they made gains from the Liberal Democrats in the West Country, where there are several marginal seats. But the Lib Dems did well against Labour and were a clear second nationally.
The only relief for Mr Brown yesterday was that no Cabinet minister followed James Purnell in demanding his resignation. But the Purnell bombshell stopped Mr Brown from carrying out his original intention of replacing Alistair Darling with Ed Balls. So he has been left with a Chancellor who he intended to shift until 10pm on Thursday.
With six members of the Cabinet going, Mr Brown had few options. Many of those joining the Cabinet, or promoted within it, are unimpressive: worthy, long-serving ministers of state, such as Bob Ainsworth, or lightweights such as Andy Burnham.
However Mr Brown has shrewdly balanced the departure of leading Blairites by the promotion of others such as Lord Mandelson to become supremo of domestic policy as First Secretary of State; Lord Adonis, the energetic champion of high-speed trains, to become Transport Secretary; and the return of Tessa Jowell to the full Cabinet as not only Olympics but also Cabinet Office minister — and presumably also a fixture on the Today programme.
Lord Mandelson is holding the Government together, as shown by his higher position in the Cabinet hierarchy than either the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary. His Business Department has absorbed the ill-fated Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills which was created less than two years ago. This is a dire warning against hasty machinery of government changes, which usually produce more disruption than long-term benefits.
Glenys Kinnock, retiring as an MEP, could prove a shrewd appointment as Europe Minister.
Then there is the contemptible appointment of Sir Alan Sugar as a business adviser with a peerage. This is a populist gimmick which is certain to backfire. A vulgar, sexist bully, he makes Lord (Digby) Jones look like a self-effacing socialist intellectual by comparison. Will he ever turn up to the Lords? The Lords Appointment Commission requires assurances of regular attendance and has every ground to block the move.
The reshuffle may have bought Mr Brown some time, but not long. It will not change the public, or Labour MPs’ view of him. We are promised a barrage of new initiatives on domestic policy and political renewal (where there is an urgent need for clear thinking and producing some practical ideas, as opposed to woolly aspirations). But will anybody be listening? The political weather is still blowing against Mr Brown.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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