Gordon Brown receives strong support to remain Prime Minister from current and past Labour voters. But a majority are highly critical of last Friday’s Cabinet reshuffle and many do not think Mr Brown is doing a good job.

However, the replacement of Mr Brown by Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, might attract back some who have deserted Labour since the last general election.

A majority of voters believe that Mr Brown’s proposals to clean up politics will help Labour, though there is less support for left-wing calls to cancel the partial privatisation of Royal Mail, and abandoning identity cards and a Trident replacement. Alongside the normal poll, 738 people who had voted Labour at the 2005 general were interviewed (see www.populus.co.uk). These were divided into: those still backing Labour now; those who have switched to another party; and floating voters (who do not know how they will vote, if at all).

Nearly three quarters (72 per cent) of all 2005 Labour voters say Mr Brown should remain leader. This rises to 88 per cent among those still loyal to Labour. Most switchers (59 per cent) and floaters (70 per cent) agree. Fewer than a half of 2005 Labour voters (46 per cent) believe Mr Brown is doing a good job at present, while 53 per cent disagee. Labour loyalists say he is doing a good job by a 71 to 28 per cent margin, while the balance is almost exactly opposite among switchers. Floating voters are also negative by 55 to 41 per cent.

Fewer than half of Labour voters in 2005 (48 per cent) still back the party now. Some 19 per cent would vote Tory, 12 per cent Liberal Democrat and 21 per cent for other parties. This is after excluding 30 per cent of former Labour voters who say that either they would not vote at all if there were an election tomorrow or do not know.

If Mr Johnson became leader, however, the Labour total would rise from 48 to 56 per cent. This means that nearly one in five Labour voters in 2005 who would now vote differently, and almost half of 2005 Labour voters who are now floaters, would switch back to Labour under Mr Johnson.

There are no obvious short cuts for Mr Brown. Just two fifths of all 2005 Labour voters (42 per cent) say the reshuffle will strengthen the Government’s position. But 51 per cent say it made Mr Brown look weak. The balance is 69 to 28 per cent in favour among Labour loyalists, but 23 to 71 per cent against among switchers and 34 to 56 per cent against among floaters.

Nearly three quarters (72 per cent) of 2005 Labour voters think that plans to reform Parliament, the system of MPs’ allowances and democratic system will strenghten Labour’s prospects.

MPs’ expenses, pages 24, 25

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