All the talk about public spending cuts is concentrating the minds of voters, but not how Gordon Brown and Lord Mandelson would like.

The new Populus poll for The Times has a pre-election flavour. Positions are polarising, don’t knows are falling and likelihood to vote is rising.

From voting intentions through expectations about the election result to party images, there is a sense of opinion firming up — in favour of the Tories.

The autumn battleground is public finances and how, and when, to reduce the budget deficit.

First, the vast majority of voters (84 per cent, up three points since July) believe that there will be “significant cuts in public spending after the next election” regardless of the outcome.

Secondly, they trust the Tories more than Labour to cut in ways that do not harm “important public services and minimise the negative impact”.

Over the summer, views have polarised, with trust in the Tories increasing by 6 points to 44 per cent and trust in Labour up 7 points to 35 per cent.

But voters are split on what action should be taken, although with a shift in favour of spending cuts. More than a third (36 per cent) favour a roughly equal split between tax increases and cuts in spending.

A similar number (37 per cent) want more emphasis on spending cuts and fewer, or no, tax increases. Just under a quarter (23 per cent) put most emphasis on tax increases and fewer or no cuts in spending. Since April there has been a big shift to across-the-board cuts (37 per cent, plus 15 points), rather than some areas being protected from cuts, even if it means bigger rises in taxes or deeper targeted cuts (60 per cent, minus 13 points).

Among those who favour targeted action, however, there are much clearer views on what should be protected than on what should be cut.

Populus did not prompt, that is did not read out a list of options. Unprompted, 76 per cent of voters wanted the NHS protected (up 16 points since April); followed by schools (48 per cent, up 13 points); the police (22 per cent, up 5 points); public transport 12 points (up 1 point). When asked about possible cuts, however, a quarter say that they don’t know. Then, top of the list is MPs pay and perks at 14 per cent; followed by local authorities on 13 per cent; and welfare benefits on 8 per cent.

It is always easier to back savings in general than cuts in particular. That is why the politicians indulge in evasions (Lord Mandelson’s “wise spenders” or David Cameron’s appeal to cut the cost of politics, which is small in total).

Until detailed cuts are announced, this will be a battle of manoeuvre, and image. At present, the Tories are well ahead.

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