Peter Riddell
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David Cameron hates any public talk about how 10 Downing Street will be run if the Conservatives win the election. In this, he is exactly the same as Tony Blair. They use the same words, “measuring the curtains”. Opposition leaders do not want to appear to be taking the electorate for granted. It is also partly psychological. They are concentrating all their energies on winning the election. Yet advance preparations are critical for the success of any new government.
Moving from opposition to government is more complicated than the familiar ritual of the outgoing and incoming prime ministers going to and from Buckingham Palace. Ingrained attitudes and behaviour must change. In 1997, Mr Blair looked certain to win but showed little interest in what becoming prime minister involved in practice. He focused just on the campaign. In 1997, Sir Robin (now Lord) Butler, the Cabinet Secretary, went to the Blair home in Islington eight days before polling day. He recalls that Mr Blair, whom he had met several times, conveyed “the clear sense of being fed up throughout the two hours and wanted to get rid of me”.
Fortunately, many of the arrangements were sorted out with Jonthan Powell, his chief of staff, a role performed for Mr Cameron by Ed Llewellyn. An implementation unit under Francis Maude and Nick Boles is also working in secret to plan priorities, how government should work and to supervise contacts between shadow spokesmen and permanent secretaries.
Since November I have been looking at past transitions and current practice, as a Senior Fellow of the Institute for Government, a non-partisan charity that aims to improve the effectiveness of government. The report, by myself and Catherine Haddon, a historian, will be published this month.
Our institute study has suggested ten tips for Mr Cameron if he wins:
1 Do nothing that would make governing harder. When appointing Shadow spokesmen, think whether you want them to do the same job in office. In 1979 and 1997, two fifths of the new Cabinets had not held the same posts in opposition. The most successful ministers in getting to grips with their new departments were those who had prepared in advance, such as Sir Geoffrey Howe in 1979; Gordon Brown, David Blunkett and Jack Straw in 1997. Newcomers to their posts, such as Frank Dobson or Gavin Strang in 1997, struggled, partly because policies were unclear.
2 Remember that most of your Shadow team have never been ministers. You are better off than Mr Blair in 1997 as you have three former Cabinet ministers, William Hague, Kenneth Clarke and Sir George Young. But the long gap between changes of government has created serious adjustment problems.
3 Try to get ministers and advisers acclimatised to what government involves. Many new local council leaders benefit from mentoring and training. Former ministers and retired permanent secretaries can help to bring home the realities of office. But the Templeton College and Fabian Society sessions before the 1997 election were a limited success as many Labour spokesmen thought, wrongly, that all they had to do was to take decisions and the Civil Service would implement them.
4 Don’t just concentrate on the top team: think about junior ministers and, above all, specialist and political advisers who have a key role, as Ed Balls, Norman Warner and Michael Barber did in 1997.
5 Trust the Civil Service. Almost all are not partisan, just as most were not closet Tories in 1997. Officials are keen to demonstrate their loyalty. The real danger is that they will be too keen to please. Mr Powell notes that the Civil Service overinterpreted Labour statements, in 1997 not seeing that pledges had been partly drafted for internal party and electoral reasons, and were compromises. Ministers had to tell civil servants their real priorities.
6 Be open about your plans in the formal meetings with permanent secretaries. They will not sneak to current ministers. Officials are not allowed to give advice but can listen. If the Civil Service has a clear idea of what you want to do, it can be ready after the election. That enabled Mr Blunkett to get going rapidly with his literacy and numeracy strategy, and Mr Straw with his youth justice measures in 1997.
7 Identify priorities now. In these days of leaks and blogging, you may be wary of a Shadow spending review, but you must establish trust within the Shadow Cabinet now. It will be much harder in office.
8 Even where you want to keep plans secret until after the election, have as much as possible on paper so it can be taken to departments by new ministers. This allows civil servants to get to work quickly. The Thatcher team arrived in 1979 with detailed spending plans, as did Mr Brown and Mr Balls in 1997 with papers on Bank of England independence, the windfall tax on utilities and corporate tax changes.
9 Be cautious about creating new departments, or merging old ones. Such changes are invariably expensive and disruptive and seldom work. Just look at the Universities and Skills Department, created and disbanded in less than two years. The pressing need is to sort out schools and universities themselves.
10 Don’t rush. You will be exhausted after the campaign. Other countries with similar political systems, such as Australia and Canada, delay the handover for a few days, or even a week or two. Even if you cannot resist becoming Prime Minister on the Friday after the election, take the weekend off, and appoint most of the Government the next week. You might avoid mistakes like the pairing of Harriet Harman and Frank Field in 1997. There is no reason why the Queen’s Speech has to be within a fortnight. Delay it by a week or two, as happened in 1966 and 1992. This will let ministers get to know their departments and work out priorities rather than having to agree Bills within days of taking office.
Forget all the talk about 100 days. Of course, you want to show that a new team is in charge. But if you have won a Commons majority, you have four to five years before the next election. Government is not a sprint but more like a marathon.
Transitions: Preparing for Changes of Government by Peter Riddell and Catherine Haddon will be published by the Institute for Government this month. instituteforgovernment.org.uk.
Peter Riddell has been a leading political commentator and an Assistant Editor for The Times since 1991. He writes mainly, but not exclusively, about British politics and has published several books on British politics, including not one, but two, on Margaret Thatcher
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