It is tempting to dismiss the apocalyptic stories as extreme examples of the usual mid-term froth, real though the malaise is. We have been here before. Past governments have lost their way, but have recovered to win the subsequent general elections. The Conservatives bounced back after the inner-city riots of 1981 and after the Westland dispute and the Libyan bombing rows of 1986.

Mr Blair is better placed electorally than his Tory predecessors. Labour is still slightly ahead of, or at level pegging with, the Conservatives on voting intentions. This is in marked contrast to the governing party’s ten-point or more deficits in the polls in the past. And while Labour is likely to have a rough day in the European and local elections on June 10, the headlines may be less clearcut, because comparisons will be with the party’s very bad results four and five years ago.

Moreover, Mr Blair shows no signs of wanting to give up. His tendency towards self- delusion — believing whatever he says when he says it — is a reflection of his resilience. His sense of destiny and legacy makes this the least likely time when Mr Blair might depart voluntarily (health and personal reasons aside). Rather, as he has been telling close colleagues, he wants to stay, fight and serve a third term. He would say that, rather like Margaret Thatcher’s infamous “on and on and on” pledge in 1987. But it shows that Mr Blair wants to vindicate his strategic judgments on Europe, Iraq and public services.

Yet it is precisely this strategy, indeed Mr Blair’s raison d’être, that is now in doubt. If you look back at the objectives which Mr Blair set himself before the 1997 election, and re- affirmed in 2001, the record and prospects look mixed.

His hopes of giving Britain a leading role in Europe, ending decades of ambiguity, have been dashed. The paradox of the proposed European referendum is that, although a “yes” vote in 18 months’ time would now be seen as a great victory for the EU cause, this result would merely approve a constitution which its supporters believe largely affirms the status quo. It would make no difference to the chances of euro entry, which Mr Blair once saw as around the corner, but now over the horizon.

Labour is also in a muddle over constitutional reform, one of its most distinctive, and longer-lasting, programmes. After the flood of legislation in the first term, the Government has lost its way over reform of the Lords and of the senior judiciary. The latter Bill can be rescued, but at the cost of much ill-will, while ministers seem headed for a minimalist approach to the composition and role of the second chamber.

The only indisputably positive area is the economy. Despite worries about rising public borrowing and an overheated housing market, the past seven years have seen sustained growth (expected to continue this year and next), low inflation and low interest rates. But all this, of course, is Gordon Brown’s responsibility rather than Mr Blair’s.

That leaves public services, where Mr Blair said he had been given “an instruction to deliver” by voters after the June 2001 general election.

After the exaggerations and over-hyped initiatives of the first term, there is evidence of real improvements in parts of the school system and the NHS following the big increases in spending of recent years. But the record is patchy at best on crime and transport.

Mr Blair’s need to highlight public services has been made both more urgent and more difficult by his troubles elsewhere. If he cannot tell a good story about Britain’s place in Europe, and the violence and troubles in Iraq are not going away quickly, then it is even more important to show that public services are getting better. Yet the erosion of public trust in Mr Blair has made voters more reluctant to accept his claims.

Similarly, Mr Blair’s ability to put forward radical ideas on public services for Labour’s third-term manifesto has been undermined by the weakening of his authority. The Government’s small majorities for foundation hospitals and tuition fees are a direct result of the disillusionment created by the Iraq war. The jitters which led to last week’s announcement on the European referendum almost led to a watering down of the tuition fees plan during its final Commons stages last month. That plan’s survival, largely unscathed, is one of Mr Blair’s few successes this year.

Labour leaders are talking about a relaunch once the June elections are out of the way. Ministers will announce the results of the spending review and five-year plans for the main public services. There will be hints of manifesto ideas at Labour’s autumn conference. This may work in electoral terms. But will there be the sense of direction and energy which Mrs Thatcher displayed until near her end? That is the real doubt now. Iraq is much more than a temporary storm such as Westland. It has blown the Government well off course. Mr Blair is no longer making the political weather.

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