Rachel Sylvester
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Gordon Brown is turning into a political equivalent of Schrödinger's cat who was - in the Austrian physicist's thought experiment - declared to be simultaneously dead and alive. Edwin Schrodinger proposed enclosing the animal in a steel container with a vat of poison that would be released at random. It was, he argued, impossible to know without opening the box whether the cat had been killed, so it could, therefore, be said to be between life and death.
The Prime Minister is in a similar position. On the face of it he is in political good health - he munches his way through summit dinners and declares war on knife crime. And yet, in Westminster, the perception is taking hold that he is a dead man walking. The only topic of conversation among Labour MPs is whether their leader can survive, and who might replace him.
Formerly loyal members of the Cabinet now say that they “don't know” whether Mr Brown will still be there at the next general election. The plotters claim that he will be out by Christmas. There are endless discussions about how the Prime Minister could be dispatched, ranging from the men in grey suits to the men in white coats. The latest plan I heard was for Neil Kinnock to persuade him to stand down on the ground that not all politicians are suited to being leader.
At one level it is all ridiculously over the top. But if the speculation goes on for much longer it will be difficult for the party to pull back, so damaged will be the political authority of the man in charge. Every event, however minor, now plays into the leadership question. As one Downing Street adviser put it: “The voters and the media are like stroppy teenagers convinced that everything their parents do is wrong. Even if Gordon did something right nobody would believe it.”
The by-election in Glasgow East has been described as the crucial tipping point. I don't think it is. It would be bad if Labour lost such a safe seat, of course, but it would only confirm what we already know: that the Government is unpopular even in Mr Brown's Scottish backyard. In any case the party may yet win.
Labour's national policy forum, which starts in Warwick next Friday, could be more dangerous for the Prime Minister in the end. This is the meeting at which ministers, MPs and activists are supposed to agree policy priorities for the next four years. It should set the agenda for the party conference in the autumn and decide the themes of the manifesto for the next general election. And yet there seems to be a vacuum where Mr Brown's vision should be.
The documents circulated in advance of the meeting are a mixture of platitudes and clichés. The transport paper concludes, for example, that “meeting Britain's future transport needs is a complex challenge” - it is unclear whether road pricing should be introduced.
Labour wants to “improve the supply of affordable housing” but there are no suggestions about how this should be done. “By encouraging rights and responsibilities,” the crime paper says, “we can create a better society.” The only new policy that I could spot in more than a hundred pages was the suggestion that all schools should be sent a copy of Al Gore's film on the environment, An Inconvenient Truth.
Downing Street would no doubt argue that the policy forum is no place for making real plans - although if it is not, what is the point of having it at all? But if there is no clear sense of direction from the top other people will try to seize the steering wheel.
The trade unions and pressure groups have tabled more than 2,000 amendments to the policy documents, on everything from flexible working to council housing. The danger for Mr Brown is that the story of the next few months will be the resurgence of the Left rather than his own policy plans. “No 10 has produced a bland blank canvas and the unions are trying to paint their colours on to it,” one ministerial aide said. “For Gordon it's all about party management. There's no exciting forward-looking plan."
This is where the Prime Minister is vulnerable. Mr Brown has a habit of growling, after a David Cameron speech: “But where's the policy?” Now ministers are asking the same question of him. “We all thought Gordon was a brilliant policy guru, fizzing with ideas,” one Cabinet member told me, “but it turns out he isn't at all.”
The Government is pressing ahead with building nuclear power stations, Lords reform, city academies and welfare changes - but these are left over from the Blair years rather than being distinctive Brownite proposals. Even the plan to lock up terrorist suspects without trial for 42 days is a hangover.
The new regime seems confused about where it is going. This week's proposal to force people caught carrying knives to visit hospitals was an “eye-catching initiative” rather than a considered plan. There is, as one strategist admits, a “macro to micro issue” with some of Mr Brown's ideas - it is all very well calling for a “new deal” on energy at the Jedda oil summit, but most people are more concerned that vehicle excise duty has gone up.
Ministers complain privately that too many bold policies are vetoed by No 10. Even some of Mr Brown's own proposals- for changes to party funding and the voting age for example - have been watered down. MPs and ministers are depressed by the poll ratings, but they are more worried by the impression that their leader does not seem to have a plan to turn things around. “You can have a problem with personality or policy, but the absence of both is pretty dire,” one minister said.
There will be no coup in Warwick but if the No 10 cupboard is as bare as insiders fear, then the period around the party conference will be dangerous for Mr Brown. By then it will be a question of survival for many Labour MPs. “The question,” one said, “is has Gordon run out of steam, or have we all?”
Rachel Sylvester is a weekly columnist and political interviewer for The Times. Before that, she wrote about politics for The Daily Telegraph. She was also political editor of The Independent on Sunday.
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Great to have big ideas but who is going to pick up the bill? for example, our Iraqi adventure or, closer to home, easy credit: we responsible citizens in the main, have to pick up the pieces.
ian cheese, london, uk
John Williams: Thanks very much. As far as I'm aware, yes - though it may have occurred to others independently.
D Murphy, Skipton,
".... it is lack of big ideas that is killing him".
What a naive and deluded point of view.
What is ACTUALLY killing Brown is that the great British Public have finally realised the damage that he has been doing for 11 years.
And no "big idea" can undo that.
Jon Leigh, Southern, France
nulaba wants everything to be "nice"for everyone, which is impossibleso long as they try to be nutori lite
peter c, devizes, wessex
Doesn t the Bible say something along the lines of ' Of the making of reviews and policy initatives there is no end'?
dhrowlands, cardiff,
Surely it's a lack of any good ideas? Typical of Brown are:PFI; tripartite control of the banking sectors; polyclinics etc ad nauseum. Even the Good ideas are sabotaged: Freedom of Information ; The Filkin factor. Who will rid us of this turbulent prat?
bob holmes, axbridge , England
Ironic that the only idea you could find - showing Al Gore's film in every school - has already been ruled unlawful in the courts
SW, Cheadle, UK
A lack of big ideas is killing Gordon Brown? Given the damage he's done with little ones, any progression to big ideas would be a catastrophe.
Jon Anderson, Farnham, UK
People laughed at Brown way back for talking about neoclassical endogenous growth theory. But seriously, this theory is why Britain is so badly placed to deal with the economic situation. Labour thought any spending would generate growth, but untargeted waste has squandered money from North Sea Oil
Frederic Stansfield, Canterbury, Kent
They have to sack at least half of the public sector employees to keep the UK afloat.
They've already shot their own fox so what else can they do to distract the people from their incompetence?
Labour are finished, send the down mines!
David, Knutsford, UK
Surely a more appropriate DVD would be "An Inconvenient Truth - How Socialism brought Britain to its knees (again)"?
christian, london, united kingdom
Labour will win Glasgow East, but with a reduced majority. As for policies, why don't they bid for a pot of money and invite the private sector to inject ideas?
Frank Keegan, Alderley Edge,
Brown is a Socialist. He has sickened the English working class with welfarism funded by stealth taxes. Monstrous state spending has consumed revenue & borrowings. He has been sidelined in Scotland & Wales by nationalism, a monster from Labour's flawed devolution. Socialism failed again, go now !!
john barkham, Burton-upon-Trent, UK
I understand the article's point, but what the UK needs is no more policies or initiatives on anything.
McBroon and his team create a zillion "policies" a year, but deliver nothing that works even remotely adequately, but always involves extracting money from people who usually can't afford it.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
Now I am seriously worried. We have a cabinet minister who didn't know what GB was like before he became PM and believes the PM should come up with all the ideas. If the rest of the cabinet is like this we need help. 2 more years. Help.
Alex C, London,
Ian Girvan - could you tell me what "socialist" ideology is evident in the Labour government? If Labour lose the next election, it will certainly not be because of being too left wing but, rather, too wedded to the failed policies of Thatcherism and neocon credo.
Social democracy? If only!
Rob, London, UK
Rachel,
Erwin not Edwin Schrodinger, of that, there is no uncertainty.
Brown is finished, the bye-election will be a significantly reduced majority win for Labour, the knives will come out within the Old Labour brotherhood in the Westminster Big Top.
Of that I am also not uncertain.
Geoff Berry, Bolton, UK
You could have written this stuff over a year ago! Nothing has changed. Emperor Brown was presented for his accession with a new tie, expensive dentistry and haircut but was at once seen to be utterly devoid of any ideas. His 'British jobs for British workers' speech was as good as it gets.
m collins, Leeds,
Any politician is as good as those on whose shoulders he stands. A man with a big title was saying on this morning's Today that the majority of young people are fine and we should all rally behind the PM's youth strategy - a clear indication of the paucity of ideas in Whitehall today.
MDA, Crouch End, UK
Gores film has already been discredited with at least 12 errors and exaggerations . To provide this propaganda to our schools would be outrageous.
C.Wood, Camberley, UK
D Murphy - that's very good. Is it yours?
John Williams, London,
Remember how Brown used to endlessly boast how he was the best Chancellor for about 200 years ? He is firmly on course to become the shortest serving prime minister for about the same period..
Rick, London, England
Rachel Sylvester rather misses the point. Brown is merely the miserable personification of a party which, hidebound by socialist ideology, is quite unable to produce any new ideas. Moves to free state education from the suffocating grip of government control, for instance, are therefore unthinkable.
IAN GIRVAN, DUNKERTON, SOMERSET, ENGLAND
He should change his name to Spiro Agnew- Who? Exactly!!
Nigel T, Altrincham, UK
Brown as PM? - Whats the big idea!
I've had to say it ad nauseum, but here goes again, Brown has always been the darling of some on the left, but they are all idiots otherwise they wouldn't be on the left, the simple truth is the man is not up to the job and never was.
edward green, Upminster,
sorry rachel,i think the public is well ahead of you commentators.they have already made up their minds about brown.in short...they will not vote for him,full stop!labour must replace him before christmas with milliband as PM and purnell as chancellor to stop a big tory landslide atleast!
john small, canterbury, uk
No, Mr Brown is bad enough at small ideas without doing big ones. How long before they start doing people for tax evasion every time they drive slowly through a speed trap ?
D Murphy, Skipton,
Gordon Brown apparently assured Labour MPs invited to meet him in small groups that the pronblem was not him personally but the economy. And that he could fix the economy.
I thought the problems with the economy were down to international forces over which GB had no control !
Anthony, London,
The resurgence of the left is a real issue over the remaining term of the Labour Government due to the realization that the chance of an overall majority again has almost certainly gone. The luck of the Blair years in the 'Golden Decade' has evaporated and there will be no other alternative.
john, milton keynes,
Considering the UK is a major force in the world and a powerful country, I think Gordon Brown is no statesman, more a local councillor.
Mike, Stratford upon Avon, UK
Sometimes people identify their own problems very well. When there are people in Down ing Street willing to say "The voters and the media are like stroppy teenagers..." then their arrogance and stupidity in saying so in public explains exactly what's wrong with Labour after ten years in office.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
"The only new policy that I could spot in more than a hundred pages was the suggestion that all schools should be sent a copy of Al Gore's film on the environment, An Inconvenient Truth." That's not a new policy. So no new policies. That's new.
GBH, Frome, Somerset
PM Brown could turn his popularity around. He should review the Westminister system. He has nothing to lose. Base a new government system on environmental needs and resource sustainability, and introduce a democratic voting system for all legislation. Modernization of government is the future.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia