Rachel Sylvester
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The Labour Party is starting to look as if it is playing Cluedo with its leader. Will it be Colonel Mustard, Jack Straw, in the Downing Street lounge with a revolver? Will it be Professor Plum, David Miliband, in the library with the lead piping? Could Miss Scarlet, Harriet Harman, plunge the dagger between the Prime Minister's shoulderblades in the ballroom? Or perhaps the Rev Green, Charles Clarke, will use the rope in the kitchen to kill Mr Brown.
The Labour leader is still, in fact, alive - for now at least. But the plotters are increasing in number and confidence. Murder (committing or avoiding it) was the only thing on anyone's mind as MPs fled Westminster for their summer holidays at the weekend.
The wipe-out in Glasgow East was, for many, compounded by the Prime Minister's lacklustre performance at the National Policy Forum - his David Cameron-style “look no notes” speech gave “look no answers” to the party's predicament. The unions seem to be calling the shots. Mr Brown's strongest suit - the economy - has become his Achilles' heel. One Cabinet minister believes that a challenge against the leader has gone from “possible” to “probable” in the past few days. There is talk of a “prosecco plot” - conducted via mobile phones from Tuscan farmhouses and Spanish villas - similar to the “curry coup” through which the Brownites pushed out Tony Blair.
I spoke to a junior minister yesterday who claims to be prepared to resign in September in protest at Mr Brown's leadership and believes that nine other government members could follow suit - more if you include parliamentary private secretaries, the unpaid ministerial aides. “Somebody has to pull the trigger,” the minister said. “The risk of not changing the leader is now greater than the risk of changing him. We've got to be bold.”
Dozens of backbenchers are said to be ready to sign a letter asking the Prime Minister to stand down. For many MPs, this is no longer about political positioning, it is about personal survival. Labour has been pushed into third place behind the Lib Dems in some marginal seats.
Even Downing Street advisers now concede that “momentum” - a crucial force in politics - is going away from them. One of Mr Brown's closest Cabinet allies admitted: “If my party continues to fail to manage itself it could become impossible for Gordon to stay. Everyone has a terrible fever at the moment but no one is sure if it's the plague or flu.”
The temperature may fall over the summer. But conditions are not ideal for a quick recovery. There is little residual loyalty towards the Prime Minister among his Cabinet. “I don't think Gordon would die in a ditch for me so why should I die in a ditch for him?” one minister said.
Meanwhile, there is civil war in Downing Street, with the “old guard” class warriors and the “new guard” PR men barely on speaking terms. Civil servants - who can sink or save a politician - have not warmed to Mr Brown. “People say he's charming in private but it's completely untrue,” an official who has worked closely with him said. “He's incredibly rude. He doesn't remember names. His e-mails are brusque demands. And his defining characteristic is anger. I've seen him kicking furniture.”
Mr Brown is planning a fightback in September, with a new “economic plan”. But not all those around him are convinced it will work. Downing Street has been begging Whitehall departments to come up with policies that fit into its “fairness” theme, with little luck. “It will be free kettles for old people, that sort of thing,” one insider said. “The strategy is great but there's a great gaping hole in the middle where the policy should be.”
A rebranding exercise has been prepared, with Cabinet meetings held outside London and Mr Brown photographed in different, more domestic settings - around a kitchen table for example - but those involved know that it could all go “hideously wrong”. The reshuffle might also backfire. The Prime Minister has been wooing Alan Milburn - he saw him again last week - with a view to offering him a big job but the überBlairite would probably turn it down. Whatever happens, the party conference will be about the leadership.
At the same time - and perhaps most importantly - the Prime Minister's potential rivals on what could be called the “modernising” wing of the party seem to be coalescing around David Miliband. I am told that James Purnell made clear to the Foreign Secretary a few weeks ago that he would not stand against him in a leadership contest if one takes place this year. Andy Burnham does not think he is ready for the top job. Alan Johnson, the former postman with the populist appeal, now sees himself as a mentor rather than a rival to the younger man. These four would make a powerful dream ticket.
Those who know Mr Miliband well say that although he funked it last year when he did not challenge Mr Brown, he now has the cojones to go for the leadership. He is planning a highly political conference speech. A small team - including Peter Hyman, Mr Blair's former speechwriter, and D. J. Collins, a former Whitehall press officer with good union links - are said to be advising him on an informal basis. With BlackBerrys and e-mail lists, there is no need to install the phone lines.
Mr Straw could put his name forward as a caretaker leader if there is a contest - although there is a growing sense among the younger generation of ministers that it is their turn for a shot at David Cameron. And there would almost certainly be a candidate from the Left - Ed Balls and Jon Cruddas are positioning to fill this slot.
Labour would then have to decide which direction it wanted to go in. The contest would not just be about personality, it would also be about policy. This is no longer just about the leader, it is also about the Labour Party deciding what it is for.
Rachel Sylvester is a weekly columnist and political interviewer for The Times. Before that, she wrote about politics for The Daily Telegraph. She was also political editor of The Independent on Sunday.
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Little loyalty from the cabinet and absolutely no loyalty whatsoever from the public. Big ah for Gordon now.
judy, Liverpool, England
Why can't we have a vote as to who we'd like to run the country.
This is a democracy,after all.
All parties run it as a private members' club.
james allen, manchester, england
To Brown et al, you have nothing to lose now. If you have any guts left, you will start radical reform of our social services. You have to get the malingerers, alcoholics and drug addicts off Incapacity Benefit thus giving much more incentive to get jobs or JSA like the rest of us.
Graham, St. Albans, uk
Old labour is dead, new labour is dying. We're going back to the future - Whigs versus Tories. We always were a nation of liberal conservatives, socialism is just so last century. As for Miliband, a cosmetically enhanced John Redwood minus the charisma. Goodbye Nulab you won't be missed.
Charles , Epsom,
A "Prosecco Plot" in Tuscan farmhouses? Surely more of a Chianti Conspiracy.
c.ivy, hayes, kent, UK
"This is getting absurd, voters wouldn't know Andy Burnham if he sat down next to them and declared himself to be Andy Burnham"
He was the minister responsible for ID cards.
Kay Tie, York, UK
What a good idea that HM might step in. Constitutional dynamite of course; no doubt someone can spell out the possibilities/rules here. What is not in doubt is that this government is more unpopular - hated would not be too strong a word at all - by several streets than any in HM's long reign.
Terry, Chichester, UK
Milliband is not fit to be PM: if he challenges Gordon & wins we need an immediate election. The Tories shd just endlessly show him signing away our country & shaking hands with a guard at the fiasco signing of the Lisbon ConTreaty, having reneged on the promise to hold a Referendum. He's culpable!
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Ed Balls, candidate of the left ...
Too much time spent in corridors with the ultras, I think, Rachel.
Tom, London,
Respect and rights have to be earned. This goes for our leaders and the poor just as much as the rest of us. Start working positively and reduce our benefit dependant culture, which will surely sink the ship.
James, London, UK
I would say most earnestly to Brown and Company that you have created a land and economy where profiteering in all is forms has been the watchword - so please go and enjoy some of it whilst it lasts, This hopefully with a Conservative government will not be for very long.
Robert Norris, Hull., East Yorks.,
So Brown, don't you now wish you plotted and schemed a little less for those 10 years?
You wanted to be the PM. You got that. How's it looking fella?
BP, Sheffield,
Let's just get it over with. Gordon Brown is an unmitigated failure as Prime Minister. We hear about his bullying and rages, we see and hear his poor communication skills, we see his utter lack of empathy with people - for goodness sake Mr Brown, admit you are just not up to being Prime Minister.
Carl, London, UK
Brown has no mandate - he seized power in a parliamentary coup and then bottled his chance of gaining a mandate in a general election. Whoever replaces him must call an immediate election and take Labour into opposition with honour. Anything else is unacceptable in a democracy.
Ian, London, UK
This flotsam and jetsam are our ruling party!
Shabby. Can't wait for the next election.
Charles, London,
In life timing is everything - being young, ambitious and Labour in 2008 is about as wrong as it can possibly get.
Straw is Howard. Milliband is Hague. Balls is just balls.
Blair, though, chose his party AFTER deciding who might win.
Maybe if you want to lead you must defect to the Tories!
Dave, Slough,
I'm reminded of the end of the Roman Empire ... endlessly bumping off and replacing its emperors as the nation slowly disintegrated.
Andrew Shakespeare, Cardiff, Wales
i dont believe a word of this article
i don't support gordon brown
this tittle tattle, however, serves noone.
joe cannon, dorchester,
IF labour remove brown and give us ANOTHER unelected government (and it is a BIG if as they are all war-crime supporting cowards), Then the whole country should stage a mass Tax Strike and withdraw ALL support and ALL cooperation with all branches of the Government until given a general election.
Ken Hall, Barrow-in-Furness, U
"These four would make a powerful dream ticket. "
No. I think the word you are looking for is "nightmare", for labour and the country.
There are no more dream tickets in the labour stable. NONE!
Ken Hall, Barrow-in-Furness, UK
Gordon, please please stay for the sake of the country so that Labour loses the next election
colin, london,
Miliband?! Dear me, how desperate is this? Replace a loser with a cardboard cut-out possessing a talent for producing little more than earnest essays in sixth-form style.
m collins, Leeds,
The latest word on this subject is that the possibility of a woman replacement for Brown appears more attractive day by day. Straw is too old hat and there is a fear that Miliband and Purnell are too much like clones of Cameron. Not Harman but one of the ladies in the Cabinet is to be chosen.
john problem, winchester, uk
'the reputation Britain has for providing decent women PMs'? Pardon me? Women PMs? I know of Thatcher, but of no other? And decent? Well, I suppose you use this word dependent upon where you come from, but it's not a word many people I know of would use!
Brian, Falkirk, Scotland
David Miliband represents less voters than Brown - especially with his WTO activities that will further hurt more British voters pockets.
I cannot wait for Miliband's political suicide.
Richard, Bucharest,
If Miliband took over then he would NOT go for an early general election. He's the EU's man, he knows that the Tories have only promised a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty provided it has not come into force, and so he'd hang on in the hope that the Irish would vote 'yes' in a second referendum.
Denis Cooper, Maidenhead, England
Gordon Brown's dalying with the unions, however necessary for party funds, will be a disaster for this country and take us back to the 60/70's.
He has an honourable solution; call the election. Labour will lose regardless of who the leader is so, to preserve his successor's credibility, do it now.
A.Williams, Cradley Heath,
I always laugh when I read re-iteration by journalists of NuLab's statement that Brown was the greatest chancellor.
I challenge them to look at the hard evidence then, look me in eye and tell me again without grinning.
Economy was his strongest suit. Doesn't say much for the other suits does it.
Richard Crompton, Baden, Switzerland
We cannot have another unelected Prime MInister. Especially if it's Harriet Harman- she'll ruin the reputation Britain has for providing decent women PMs. We must have a general election or, Brown must stick in there.
Richard Whitney, Pewsey, England
It is time for all Brown and all the others in the Labour party to go. Shame that all we can think of replacing them with its the Torie party we kicked out so many years ago. Some would say that lacks imagination.
Greg, Bristol,
The people of great Britain are being ignored in all this. The New Labour project was never sincere. It has now been found out as such, and unwound. I agree with several of the comments printed here, the Queen or someone in authority has to call a general election, democracy is being abused,
Nigel Williams, Madrid, Spain
Are they old Labour or new Labour? Like the Tories in the early '90's there seems to be so little love lost between the competing factions would it not be better for each to split and go their separate ways. Nulab and Real Lab??
Wouldn't Nulab Blairites be happier with the Cameroons?
William, Northampton, England
Maybe it's time for Her Majesty to step in and order Gordon Brown to hold an election.
Gordon Scott, Glasgow,
'Andy Burnham does not think he is ready for the top job'
Oh well thank the Lord for that! This is getting absurd, voters wouldn't know Andy Burnham if he sat down next to them and declared himself to be Andy Burnham, government minister!!
Carrie, Merseyside, UK
Milly is no more the saviour than Mandy would have been. It is time for Labour to prepare for opposition and wait for a Michael Howard figure to come along and point them in the right direction again.
Colin Gillies, Edinburgh,
How can this be allowed to carry on in a so called 'democracy'? This country is becoming a laughing stock. Hague was right when he said even Labour themselves know they are not fit to govern. Call a general and let us have the Tories, they are fizzing with ideas and couldn't be any worse.
Tom, Cheshire, UK
These people being talked up Miliband, Purnell, Balls etc are total lightweights. No-one in the wider public knows anything about them. They have not been scrutinised, challenged or analysed in the same way as say Thatcher, Blair, Major and even Cameron. I would rather Brown stay than have Harman.
Kelly, StHelens, UK
EARTH TO NEW LABOUR- this country is not your fiefdom and you do not have an absolute right to govern. This country is on the brink economically and socially and you're fighting like ferrets in a sack. If you want to have a leadership battle go into opposition and do it there.
Karl Marr, Huddersfield, UK
Who in their right mind would entrust Milibands, Balls, Harman, Purnell, Clarke, Milburn, Byers and the rest of the motley crew with their families safety, security and prosperity?? I know iI wouldn't!
Tina, Colne Valley, UK
The word "co*****" is not polite. You mean "guts" or "courage".
Agusti Sanchez, Badalona, Catalonia, Spain, EU
If Brown is ousted there should be an immediate general Election.
Another unelected PM is not acceptable.
As aTory, I want Brown to stay.
He is a cast iron guarantee of a conservative victory.
Michael Rigby, blackburn,
It is not Brown , he is just their scapegoat, it is the entire Labour Government.There is no suitable replacement Milliband is a gassbag of empty platitudes.They are just useless,the lot of them
We the people need a general election instead of Labour playing "snap" with an unelected deck of cards..
D McGregor, St Mawes, UK
I have grave doubts whether there is anyone on the Labour benches who would be seen to be such an improvement on Gordon Brown and also to be acceptable to the voters as the second unelected Prime Minister foisted on them in this Parliament. For Labour, The Party is over. A miracle now is required.
Ian Platt, Northants, UK
Gordon Brown proves that democracy works.
Look what happens when an unelected leader grabs power.
John, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
It doesn't matter whether the Labour party decide or do not decide what they're for. Nobody wants any more of the financial and social chaos that this current government have created.
Frank, Evesham, England
How fitting that Gordon Brown, a man who set out to undermine and replace the most charismatic and electable leader the Labour Party ever had, should now be facing the night of the long knives himself. What goes around comes around, Mr. Brown and you were not even a good Chancellor.
William Epps, Broadstairs, England