Rosemary Righter
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Europe's most controversial and unscrupulous, and by foreigners most underestimated, politician has surpassed himself. Not only has Silvio Berlusconi won the Italian premiership for a third time, and with a convincing majority in both houses of the Italian parliament that he alone confidently predicted; he has emerged the winner in a contest that, to wide surprise, has produced a political earthquake.
In anger and frustration, voters have swept away the Italy of dozens of parties and factions. Only six of the 26 parties in the outgoing parliament have secured seats - and not one of these went to Italy's several brands of communist, consigned to oblivion along with their allies, the Greens. It was the “complete defeat of unforetold proportions” that Fausto Bertinotti, Italy's veteran red emperor, conceded yesterday as he announced his retirement from politics.
This radical simplification of the political arithmetic marks the end of the hesitant and muddled transition that began 15 years ago, when Italy's First Republic collapsed in a welter of corruption scandals, destroying the Christian Democrat and Socialist parties. That was when Italy's richest tycoon first erupted on the political scene, vowing to turn his populist Forza Italia! movement into the dominant party of the Right, and thus to force an end to the politics of complex coalitions easily blackmailed by minute factions whose threatened mutinies paralysed decision-making.
Despite rather than because of its politicians, Italy at last has a reasonably coherent bipolar framework, a strong centre-right government that is balanced, for the first time ever, by a single and avowedly modernising centre-left Democratic Party, led by Walter Veltroni. Mr Berlusconi has what he said he always wanted. He also has no excuse, no alibi whatever - other than the daunting complexity of Italy's accumulated problems - for failing this time to deliver stable, solid and active government.
Has he got what it takes to govern, as distinct from getting in the vote? The jury is very much out. His first victory, in 1994, owed as much to national disillusion with all politicians as to his extravagant promises to use his business skills to enrich everyone, and he was duly punished two years later for failing to impose discipline on his own coalition partners - notably the quasi-separatist Northern League, which has again emerged as a powerful force.
His second chance, in 2001, came courtesy of the chaotic performance of Italy's bickering left-wing parties, and by common consent he blew it, doing culpably little with a record full five-year term in power and, worse, devoting time to legislation calculated to ease his own little difficulties with the law.
So the voters wearily turned back, two years ago, to Romano Prodi and his motley crew of centrists, socialists, greens and reds, but this time with a hair-thin majority that put it strictly on probation.
Mr Berlusconi did something about his own thinning hair and waited for the inevitably swift demise of Italy's latest apology for a government. He then carried the day with a skilful fusion of vintage Berlusconi, the people's champion against an overmighty, underperforming State, and the “new”, relatively sober-sided Berlusconi, who insists he has learnt from his past mistakes. He no longer promises miracles, only unremitting effort, and, dropping his stand-up-comic vilification of everything left-wing, declares himself willing to work “in the national interest” with Mr Veltroni's Democratic Party.
Mr Berlusconi has said the going will be hard. His greatest asset is that Italians, even those traditionally resistant to change, are at their wit's end. Their votes, and the high turnout of 80 per cent, were driven by a sense that the country has touched rock bottom and that, so deeply are Italy's finances in the red, there is no money to buy the country's way out of trouble.
The economy is flat on the floor, decent job prospects are few, particularly for the young, and the highest inflation for 22 years combines with static wages and the Prodi Government's tax rises that eat deep into families' purchasing power. They have responded by giving the politicians the tools to do things they will resent, but accept are now unavoidable. Things like cutting public spending while improving its quality - even if this means seriously confronting powerful public sector unions and risking endless strikes. Things like curbing the political patronage on which literally hundreds of thousands of Italians depend for jobs - a reform abruptly made feasible with the defenestration of mini-parties from parliament.
Mr Berlusconi's handicap is that, although his new Party of Freedoms benefited by it, this has once again been a strongly “anti-political” vote, one that reflects grassroots anger at the profligate, self-seeking political habits summed up in the word “Rome”. It will not make governing any easier. Two “anti-political” parties have been the big winners from this phenomenon: the Northern League, which despite the eccentricities of its leader, Umberto Bossi, draws strongly on the impatience of the modern, industrial and still extremely wealthy Italy north of the Apennines with ineffectual and slow-moving central government; and, on the Left, the Italy of Values party led by Antonio Di Pietro, the former magistrate who made his name 15 years ago as leader of the Clean Hands investigation of the corrupt links between business and politicians.
Neither of these firebrands is going to be keen on accommodation with the opposite side. The League owes Mr Berlusconi few favours - and is demanding the retention of a higher share of the taxes generated in the north as the price of its support. The “northern question”, potentially explosive, is back on the agenda. As for Mr Di Pietro, he nurtures a personal detestation of Mr Berlusconi - who returns the favour - that could lead to him storming out of alliance with a “too co-operative” Mr Veltroni, who, to his credit, has been swift to extend a hand to Mr Berlusconi.
Responsible opposition is as much of a novelty for Italy as are two-party politics. As novel, indeed, as the spectacle of Silvio Berlusconi, poacher turned gamekeeper, seeking to set his stamp on history as the statesman who gives Italy modern, clean, sober and responsible government.
Rosemary Righter is a Times columnist who lives in Umbria

Rosemary Righter has worked for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Newsweek in Asia, as development and diplomatic correspondent of The Sunday Times and as chief leader writer at The Times, where she is now an associate editor. She has written four books, including a history of the United Nations
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I am an Italian reader. First of all, I'd like to praise Ms. Righter for her precise and objective article, something that in Italy is rarely seen, due to the information subjection to politics.
Few readers know what Mr. Dell'Utri, Party of Freedoms' vice president and Berlusconi's right hand, declared just few days ago during a public speech. He defined Mangano (a mafioso sentenced to life prison for multiple murders and international drug pushing) "a hero" because he refused to mention his and Berlusconi's names to the judges when under trial.
Nothing happened. No one protested or complained. Italians do not move or react anymore. They simply say, alternatively, "he's a fascist", or, "he's a communist". That's it.
How would British public opinion have reacted, had it happened in England?
I do know the answer.
I fear this cancer could spread across other European countries, thus turning the "European dream" into a more sinister being.
Thanks for your attention
Gianluca, Verona, Italy
It looks to me as though Berlusconi, among his other achievements, now has a mandate to defy the EU and the ECB.
It had to happen, of course. It was just a question of which Euro-area country hit their limit first.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
To Bea 'It's incredible that everybody here talk about the supposed danger of communism in Italy'. It's not a 'supposed' danger. And the danger of having fascists in government does not make the danger posed by communists any less great. I lived in Italy for several years and always thought there was something rather strange about a country who still had so many people standing at the extremes - left or right.
Louise, London,
Mr. Berlusconi's greatest asset is not the end of Italians' wit. His greatest asset are his enormous wealth, his control of a large part of the country's most influential media and his link with the mafia and other criminal organizations using their clientelist networks in the south to 'encourage' people to vote for him.
Joost van der Meer , Bologna, Italy
All bristish newspaper editors will have to eat their words once Berlusconi has modernised Italy, which is the biggest fear of the left!
Will, Oxford, UK
Perfect analysis. Brilliant.
Marco, Venice,
As a frequent visitor to Italy, I can only hope that the great people of this nation finally get the government they deserve. I see a nation with the potential to be a leader in industry and agriculture, if only the bureacrats can get out of they way and release the entrepreneurial spirit of its people. Mr. Berlusconi needs to focus on his own government, and avoid creating destractions like "joking" about Spain's new female majority cabinet. Last I heard, in the past year Spain's GDP surpassed Italy's. Who's laughing now? Mr. Berlusconi has a lot to accomplish with his new government before he can be that "cocky" about fellow EU leaders. Good luck!
Roberto, Saratoga Spings, NY, USA
I personally detest Berlusconi enourmously. He is not a clown or a gaffeur as depicted by the press abroad; he is very much worse. Having said this, no one can deny his very clear victory and very strong majority in Parliament. If he fails this time, what excuse is he goint to come up with (there are no commies in Parliament this time)?
Piercarlo, rome, italy
Hi everybody...!I agree with this analysis but not completely with some of the comments...I don't think here in Italy Medias are completely controlled by Berlusconi...Of course Mediaset owns to his family, but we have also a "public" television and I would like to remember that channel 2 and 3 showed a lot of times their "left" ideas...I'm happy of this vote not only because of PDL victory but because Italian political situation finally has become simplier...26 parties were too much...Now we have only six and most of the extremism are out of Parliament and that is good too...If Northern League obtained so many votes is only because people in the North are sick of a slow and extremely expensive political sistem and sick of having too much taxes to pay...The only problem of Italy is that we are always complaining about ourself and comparing ourself to the other Europeans towns...We're always think that the others are better, and we can't see that we have a lot of good thing too
Laura, Varese, Italy
Dear All,
I'm writing from Italy and as first sentence I assure all around the World that no one need a Mussolini like person in charge of duty of the government of Italy.
Then what we can foresee is a stable period of five years, and I hope it will be used to provide solution for improving Italy economics and people quality of life. We, Italians, experienced during the past Berlusconi's government a populist politics calling for Silvio's gold touch in every matter, but the real focus was on few self-improving questions: Justice, communications (TV), and business linked relationships.
Now for the first time in Italian Republic history (maybe the 3rd) there's a bipolar political system, and the opposition party could have the power to strongly control the governing one action. We are at the beginning of a new era, I hope people will chase government in find real solution while using cheating with false achievements and communist propaganda (no one communist left in Italy at now)
Giovanni caglio, Cabiate/Como, Italy
It's incredible that everybody here talk about the supposed danger of communism in Italy just the day very after many fascists, proud to be so, will enter in our parliament, and a racist and volgur party like lega nord (that recently support Milosevic) obtained almost 8%....
Think about it..
Bea, Milan, Italia
Dear Alex,
you're right.
it seems to me that nobody out of Italy really know how much of fascist thinking is still rappresented in this new government. I can't here explain in a few words,but believe me, there's a real and concrete menace behind Berlusconi's smile. As usual it will be clear after a few decades,but, as i'm living today,i'm really concerned..I wonder what an English could think about the possibility that, one day, the owner of at least threee of six most influential tv channels (other three national channels are subjected by governemnt) and several national newspapers and magazines would propose himself as prime minister. I think he could laugh..We Italian who lost this voting will cry. For the next 5 years. Our only hope is God call Berlusconi between his angels..but,please, God, do it quikly.
Claudio, Parma, Italy
In reply to Mr Boggio
very good analysis. The leftist press only consider Berlusconi for his gaffes. without noticing the disasters created by Blair, ie Iraq (how much does it cost? around 3 billion a year I'm told. Uk has lost all the diplomatic influence it used to have). No consideration for the new laws in the job market, pensions etc.. No consideration for the low unemployment rate , now at around 6.5%, against a previous 11%.
Paolo, london,
We seem to be in the same boat as Italy. The only thing is that they have got there first. Just not that sure whether Berlusconi is the answer. Maybe someone in the mould of Mussolini is needed.
Ditto here.
John, skipton, yorkshire
I have two pertinent memories of trying to do business in Italy - one was trying to get a taxi, which seem to be as rare as hen's teeth outside of the main centres, and wondering why all the unemployed immigrant males sitting around doing nothing did not set up as minicab drivers as they would in the UK. The other is trying to persuade local accountants that new computer systems which worked perfectly well everywhere else in Europe would meet all local requirements and not cause the fiscal police to arrest them and throw them in jail.
The answer in both cases is rules, rules and rules. Italy has thousands of rules that we in the UK do not. Berlusconi needs to scrap them quickly to get the country going again.
Dave, Slough,
Pretty good analysis Ms. Righter.
I welcome the demise of many small parties, I certainly won't miss the communist and the greens, and I am glad that Giuliano Ferrara's Anti-Abortion list won't leave a mark in Italy's history.
You might say that most communists have not disappeared but they have morphed into the Democratici, but at least the ones that still think that the communist model was great (of course it just had a couple of unlucky cases: USSR, China, Vietnam, Cuba, all of Eastern Europe....), and keep spitting out the rhetoric of 1970 have been sent home. Too bad most of them probably have earned the right to draw a pension as a member of the parliament starting next month, it'd be great if they had to join the job placement list in their home county.
I am an environmental extremist but I am glad the greens are gone, (follows)
Barfbag, Oceano, California/USA
I'm sorry Boggio, but in Italy the Media are controlled by Silvio Berlusconi, and this is the reason Italy is no more considered a Free country by Freedom House; the communist party was supported by the KGB, as every communist party in the world at that time, as US supported his puppets dictators in the Cold War. Maybe you should know that thew BR in italy were infiltrated by CIA and Mossad, so things are not so simple... In truth our public system has been crippled by fifty years of democratic-cristian government , witch colluded with the Mafia in the south of Italy and installed in the entire country the culture of clientelism. And could it be that we in italy strike because we have the lowest wages in europe for the workers, and the highest remuneration for our deputies in the world? I think yes.
Alex, Bologna, Italy
We don't have any communist in Parliament but we still have fascists like Gasparri, La Russa and Ciarrapico.
Please remember that italian communists fighted against Mussolini.
Cristiano, london,
I completely agree. At last someone will be accountable, for good or bad.
In the end, if Italy reaches the very bottom, it will react.
When I was young in Italy, everyone would look at Spain as to an underdeveloped country. Now it is much better placed than Italy, and only 20 years have passed.
Nagreb, Moscow, Russia
Far better than Repubblica's handouts to Mr. Owen, but still unable to really grasp Italy's spirit and above all Berlusconi's. I really don't understand how two international reporters living in Italy can miss the real essence of this country and two formidable actors like Berlusconi and Bossi. You depict them both as buffoons and, erroneously, without international support. Who do refer to? The leftist oriented press always so keen to inform its readers on trivia? Why don't you explain what happened in Italy since 1945? Te KGB-supported Communist Party , the red posses that stormed the country to assassinate their political opponents, 62 governments unable to modernize the country because held ostage by an anti-western opposition, namely communist, who inundates Italy's squares with hammer and sickle red flags every time a substantial change is proposed, the fiscal milking of the northern provinces which, if united in one country, would easily become a prime economic power. Think!
U.M. Boggio, Lugano, Switzerland
Good analysis.
Nick, Watertown, Massachusetts, USA