Were Sir Menzies Campbell and Sian Lloyd, the weather presenter traded for a Cheeky Girl by Lembit Öpik MP, to meet, they would be entitled to mutual sympathy. Both have spent many years building up their reputations. Each was entitled to think that they had secured a long-term commitment from the Liberal Democrats. Ms Lloyd has, alas, already been discarded in favour of a far younger and more exotic item. Sir Menzies took to the airwaves last week to deny that there are MPs who want something similar to happen to his leadership.

Not that Mr Öpik should be cast as the villain of the piece in this saga; there are rational explanations for his behaviour. One is that this outburst of vigorous public heterosexuality is but a noble attempt to redress the balance in the minds of voters over the private lives of his parliamentary party. Another is that his new squeeze, being responsible for hit tracks with titles such as Cheeky Song (Touch My Bum), is obviously an authentic Liberal Democrat sympathiser. Furthermore, in view of Mr Öpik’s well-publicised interest in the risk to of our planet being hit by asteroids, it is understandable that he may be intrigued by the problem of making the earth move with safety.

But will Sir Menzies have to move on in 2007? That some of his parliamentary colleagues are feeling frustrated is not surprising. The original complaint about his leadership — unimpressive performances at Prime Minister’s Questions — has eased substantially, to be replaced by mutterings about the “skeleton factor” and concern that Mr Öpik’s colourful love life has seized more media attention than anything that Lib Dem spokesmen have said or proposed.

That there is a publicity drought at the moment is undeniable. For example, yesterday was the first anniversary of Charles Kennedy’s enforced resignation. One scoured the serious newspapers in vain for words about him, his successor or their party. Hence, there are Liberal Democrats who still hold a candle for Chris Huhne, the man defeated by Sir Menzies ten months ago. A more sophisticated set favour, sooner or later, Nick Clegg, the youthful, able and telegenic home affairs spokesman.

The Liberal Democrats would, however, be insane to engage in yet more introspection about who leads them. There are three solid reasons why this would be neither necessary nor rewarding.

The first reason is negative. Of all the years in this decade when a change in the Liberal Democrat leadership would win scant attention, this is it. Compared with the arrival of a new prime minister and a wholesale turnover in the Cabinet and Downing Street staff, swapping a Campbell for a Clegg would be utterly inconsequential. Sir Richard Branson or Paris Hilton (calm down, Lembit) could take charge of the Liberal Democrats in the next 12 months and those who report Whitehall and Westminster to the wider world would not alter their focus. The Liberal Democrats had to tough out a shift at the top of the Conservative Party in 2006. They have to endure the fact that this may be the sole column written about them in 2007.

The second, more positive, point is that the publicity obtained by the Liberal Democrats and their performance at the polls are not intimately related. The chances are that Sir Menzies will have much to smile about after the May elections. His party will do well in Scotland, better in Wales and should pick up council seats in urban England. If there is a parliamentary by-election almost anywhere this year, they will be in the running.

In this respect it is David Cameron who has grounds to be wary. The worst-case scenario for him in 2007 involves Gordon Brown revitalising the Labour Party, his policy reviews failing to produce results for his party and the hard Right defecting. If the recent pattern of council by-elections holds firm, the hidden story of the English council elections this year could be how well UKIP and the BNP do in middle-class areas.

The Tories have also offered a hostage to fortune by suggesting that Mr Brown should hold a general election soon after acquiring power. It makes it impossible for them to protest later that he is “cutting and running”, abandoning a perfectly decent majority in the House of Commons prematurely, by seeking a swift personal mandate on the basis of a surge in his favour in opinion polls. Mr Cameron could and should have been more circumspect. He may have mused whether Mr Brown was planning to act like a man aggressively pressing a marriage proposal on a woman on the basis of a fairly congenial first date.

Compared with the Conservatives, therefore, electoral strategy for Sir Menzies and the Liberal Democrats this year is mercifully straightforward.

Finally, there is what might be described as the “dark side of the Moon” aspect to party leadership — that which the electorate cannot see. It involves chairing committees with competence, overseeing a campaign organisation and driving policy in the right direction. Even those of his MPs who wish that Sir Menzies looked and acted more like James Bond, concede that he is effective at fulfilling these worthy functions and is a huge improvement on the chaotic Kennedy era.

The Liberal Democrats, steered by Vince Cable, their Treasury spokesman, have framed a more coherent stance on tax and may well have settled on sizeable and credible cuts in central government spending by the time of their annual conference. If the Conservative policy exercise does not work well, the contrast could be striking. It will make it harder for their opponents to claim, as they invariably do, that Lib Dem sums “do not add up” or that if voters were to deliver a hung parliament they would risk placing into partial power a party that is the political equivalent of the Addams Family.

In short, there is more to the Liberal Democrats than Mr Öpik’s libido. And despite the absence of Sir Menzies from television screens nightly, the party is in a more robust condition today than it was when Mr Kennedy fell so spectacularly 12 months ago.

There will come a time when it makes sense for Mr Clegg, the party’s own Cheeky Boy, to take over the mantle of leadership. But, for the coming 18 months, at the very least, Sir Menzies should not fear sharing the same misfortune of poor Ms Lloyd.

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