Gordon Brown has long seemed like the St Simeon Stylites of British politics. This 5th-century holy man is best known for the manner in which he detached himself from the rest of humanity. Having been expelled from a monastry for excessive austerity, at the age of 30 he built a pillar 6ft high and sat on it. He then created even taller columns until, after toiling for a decade, he constructed one that stretched for 60 feet into the sky. He lived on it for 30 years more without ever descending. A railing and a ladder enabled a small band of disciplines to deliver him life’s necessities. From this distant perch, he prayed and preached but mostly waited. Just like the Brown era at the Treasury.

The waiting is almost over. On Wednesday it finally will be. The Chancellor’s reluctance to strike earlier has been the source of sharp criticism in certain quarters. He could have pushed Tony Blair out on at least three occasions since 2003 but chose not to. His reticence provoked the charge of undue caution from some, indecision from others and that of cowardice from the most severe. In truth, though, none of these accusations was accurate. Mr Brown had long calculated that he could not afford to seize the crown from a bloody battlefield. He always wanted a smooth and unopposed succession. He traded time for peace.

He also has reason to walk into Downing Street with some confidence that his stay will not be a short one. He is the beneficiary of three particular advantages.

The first is that the opinion polls are already moving in his direction. A few months ago surveys were indicating that not only was Labour up to ten points behind, the situation became worse still when David Cameron was matched against Mr Brown. This was said to put the Tories 14 to 15 points ahead. On these pages in February I argued that this analysis was ludicrous as Mr Brown was not yet the prime minister and that if Labour MPs had any intelligence (a risky premise), they would ignore every poll published until the summer. I had some very shirty notes from a few in the polling industry, I can tell you. Yet here we are in the last moments before the dawn of the postBlair era. Where are the polls? They have narrowed dramatically.

Then there is the fact that Mr Brown has what looks like a serious strategic challenge, but one that is in reality not so awkward. The essential task for the next prime minister is to bring together the fragmented left without alienating the seminal centre. Labour has shed votes to the Liberal Democrats and other smaller parties among mostly middle-class electors and lost working-class votes through abstentions. Precious few have gone to the Conservatives. If Mr Brown draws back the lost sheep without losing the other flank of his flock, he will be returned with a majority come polling day.

This might seem difficult but is actually straightforward. There are myriad moves he can make, from constitutional reform and “cleaning up” politics to a fresh emphasis on reducing child poverty and a faster timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. These would make the Left feel better about itself while not irritating the centre one iota.

Incumbency, especially in pretty prosperous conditions, is a huge asset. A prime minister can operate in deeds. The leader of the Opposition is condemned to a universe almost exclusively of words. Despite appearances, it is not a level playing field.

Finally, there are the people whom Mr Brown can appoint to work with him. There has been much chatter about an administration “of all the talents” (which sounds like an unfortunate cross between Yes, Minister and Pop Idol). Most of this talk is basically nonsense. It would be a cute coup if the incoming prime minister could find a couple of prominent individuals from outside his partisan tribe to serve alongside him, but it is hardly pivotal to his ultimate success or failure. What counts is how well he can mobilise the abilities that already exist from within the parliamentary Labour Party.

His efforts in this regard are quite notable. One very prominent Blair aide was heard expressing his admiration last week at the extent to which Mr Brown was “hoovering up” anybody of any worth from within the modernisers. The fear that the Chancellor would prefer a fan club to a functioning Cabinet is about to be proved unfounded. But if he is to make the most of his chance he should make a number of unlikely decisions. He needs to think out of the box about the positions of chancellor and health secretary. The conventional wisdom is that Alistair Darling and Yvette Cooper – both Brown ultra-loyalists – will pick up these two portfolios. He should instead shift Jack Straw – who would be seen, perhaps unfairly, as a much more independent politician than Mr Darling – to the Treasury and elevate Ed Balls, his closest acolyte and immensely clever and politically adroit, to act as health secretary (reinforcing the message that the NHS is his principal immediate priority).

It is ludicrous that, while Labour has spent so much on the NHS, it has resulted in such modest improvement, while at the same time the party has earned such little credit with the voters for its efforts. Mr Brown should send his best operator on a mission to change health performance and perceptions. He cannot afford to fail here.

Mr Brown is in a stronger position than he perhaps appreciates. He has been elected by acclamation. His new deputy will not be the cause of difficulties to him (even if picking Harriet Harman over Alan Johnson is the most bizarre decision since the crowd called out for Barabbas and not Jesus).

There is no heir apparent to engage in intrigue against him. Everyone else’s future prospects are dependent on his own. He starts from a perfectly acceptable electoral position. The time for sitting aloft on mightly pillars supported only by enthusiastic devotees has ended.

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