Tim Hames
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As Tony Blair arrived in Jerusalem yesterday, his second political career was already being viewed as no less contentious than his first. His appointment as the principal Middle East peace envoy has been treated as an act of arrogance bordering on the absurd by his opponents and a deed of excessive optimism verging on insanity by his friends. His personal history – a reluctance to criticise Israel’s intervention in Lebanon as much as his role in invading Iraq – is invariably seen as a liability.
As often with these things, it ain’t necessarily so. Indeed, it is precisely because of the conflict in Lebanon, at its most controversial height exactly a year ago, that Mr Blair has an opening. For 12 months after the battle fought over Beirut and elsewhere, it is clearer than ever that Israel was the military and strategic victor – and the political beneficiary.
Claims that Israel “lost” in Lebanon were always built on extraordinarily fragile foundations. Israel, it was said, had failed to prevent hundreds of rockets being launched towards its soil (that the vast majority of them missed their targets was treated as irrelevant), that it has been unable to eliminate Hezbollah entirely (a revealingly defeatist mentality among Israel’s enemies) and that the whole episode had damaged the Israelis in the eyes of the “Arab street” (hardly a neutral audience) and wider international opinion (only marginally less dogmatic).
Ehud Olmert made his share of mistakes last summer. They consisted mostly of his rhetoric in insisting that his troops would be able to recapture soldiers seized by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon when that would always prove exceptionally difficult. He should have been more careful in his choice of words and he was slow to appreciate that an aerial bombardment of what are probably Hezbollah sections of Lebanese cities would be seen by others as an indiscriminate assault on that country itself, not the terrorists.
Yet despite these errors, which nearly drove him from office, what is the new reality of the situation facing Israel? The politics of the Lebanese border itself have been transformed. The enhanced UN presence and the active participation of the previously reticent Lebanese army have all but eradicated serious rocket attacks on Israeli towns and villages. There is a sizeable de facto no man’s land separating Israel from its foes. Hezbollah, which was, a year ago, a coalition partner of the Lebanese Government, has been cut adrift. Lebanese forces have been conducting a vigorous campaign against Islamic extremists in refugee camps that had formerly been a tolerated hotbed of fanaticism. The sizeable section of Lebanon’s political elite that wants to be part of the West understands that it must be shot of both Syria and the zealots who are parasites on their territory.
The change in the Palestinian Authority in a year is yet more dramatic. The kidnapping of an Israeli corporal by Hamas was a move as much directed against the Palestinian President as the Israeli Prime Minister. It was designed to demonstrate that Hamas actually ruled the roost in what they called their neighbourhood. Yet after an ill-conceived and ill-fated attempt to create a supposed unity Cabinet, the Palestinian Authority has effectively imposed a two-state solution on itself. The much smaller Gaza Strip, comparatively straightforward for Israel to shut off, has become an Hamas enclave, while the far larger West Bank remains in the hands of Fatah but can only stay that way securely with the tacit assistance, military and political, of the Israeli leadership. The Palestinians have become far more of a threat to each other than they are to the citizens of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
And beyond that, the legacy of the Lebanon conflict is a deeper appreciation of its underlying causes. Hezbollah and Hamas have genuine local roots, but they are sustained by the intense support of Iran. Tehran backs the first group out of Shia solidarity and the second to expand its influence and foment instability elsewhere.
A year ago international policy towards Iran and its nuclear ambitions was a shambles. Now it has become noticeably more resolute than it was then. The Russians, for all the trouble that they may be elsewhere, have ceased to be an obstructing force within the UN on this issue. China has more reason to fear the spread of Islamist ideology than it had chosen to concede.
France under Nicholas Sarkozy is being more consistent and vigorous here than it ever was under the unlamented Jacques Chirac. The Iranian Government has also been weakened from within by economic incompetence and unpopularity with its electorate.
Put all that together from Israel’s perspective and what are you left with? The so-called wall along the West Bank combined with other counter-terrorism measures means that the chances of suicide bombers successfully crossing the boundary and killing Israelis, as they once did in droves, are minimal. Rockets are not raining down on northern Israel from Hezbollah and missiles from Hamas terrain are rarely seen. Israeli troops are not bogged down in the quicksands of southern Lebanon or on the streets of Gaza.
The broader political context is atypically benign as most of the nations surrounding Israel share her concerns about the Iranian menace. So it is little exaggeration to assert that individual Israelis, as civilians and in uniform, have not been safer in 25 years.
Which is why Mr Blair is not on a fool’s errand. Most Israelis have no desire to live in a gilded ghetto. They would like to reach an enduring accommodation with the West Bank Palestinians at least. The aftermath of the Lebanon conflict has created an exceptional opportunity. It is why, despite the catcalls directed by some at the former Prime Minister, the phrase “Middle East peace envoy” is not a contradiction in terms.
Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University
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Keep your eyes on Tony Blair, the negotiator par excellence. He is discounted by so many of us in the UK because of the current situation in Iraq - but even that situation is changing. We don't often hear of advances, due to the prejudices of many in the British press, but I am about to compile a page at my blog from a serving US soldier with a different insight.
Please google keeptonyblairforpm if you'd like to see it.
Whether it was his decision to back Bush that was his downfall or simply the fact that it has not been a painless task, he has learned from that experience.
If we'd been in and out with little loss, he'd be "Churchill Mark II". THEN we wouldn't damn his support for America, would we?
Blair will do more (talking with Hamas, I'd venture) than will be covered by the press. He understands that you have to bring all sides together. Northern Ireland was the prime example. But we definitely don't have ten years! We need him back as PM here, LONG before that ;0)
BlairSupporter, London, UK
Fantastic insight a great artical and a really good read. You have a really good understanding of the currant political climate.
D Case, Newquay,
To indicate that Israel actually "won" the 2006 conflict in Lebanon borders on the absurd. In order to objectively assess the success or failure of a military operation one needs to look at the objectives given prior to the conflict and then whether these were fulfilled or not. Israel's stated goals prior to the conflict were 1) to retrieve its two abducted soldiers and 2) destroy the military capability of Hezbollah. As we all know, neither goal was accomplished. The Economist's headline "Nasrallah wins the war" may be slightly exaggerated but comes much closer to the truth than Mr Hames' fairy-tale.
Magnus, Trondheim, Norway
I keep on reading about the 'Security wall' which many correspondents say is not really a wall but a 'fence' I would really appreciate if someone could explain to me if this 'fence' is something like a pretty little hedge or wooden construction strewn with flowers which acts as a line of demarcaction, to high to clamber over or, is it an ugly barbed wire 'fence' with monsterous concrete blocks and watchtowers? (not unlike the Berlin wall)
Richard Devitt, London, UK
There can be no peace there until it is accepted that Israel is, at least part of, the problem. It is a knee-jerk State set up because of (a) European and US guilt for German atrocities and (b) British weakness in the face of a long terrorist campaign, coupled with their peculiar fondness for partition (Ireland, India, Israel - 3I).
The subsequent, and continued, bellicosity of Israel, her arrogant flouting of countless UN Resolutions and her and illegal ruthless occupation of sovereign territories, have done much to destabilise the region.
And now Blair is imposed on them all - Mediocrity added to the mix. Who can hope?
Bill McCann, Suzhou, China
Gilded ghetto?
Where do you get such silly words?
Israel has created an isolated fortress, a garrison state, just like the Crusaders did ten centuries ago.
Israel could have had peace at any time in recent decades had it wanted genuine peace.
What Israel always has wanted, and still wants, is peace on its own terms. Nothing but Israel's terms on the table.
That is impossible. It's just as though the other parties to negotiations did not exist.
People who object are called anti-Semites. Neighbors who object are called terrorists.
Were Israel to magically change its attitudes, peace could be tomorrow.
JOHN CHUCKMAN, Toronto, Canada
Rockets hit Sderot & Israel's western Negev almost daily. Only yesterday, a baby was injured by shrapnel & her relatives hospitalised suffering shock when their home was hit. These rockets are fired from Hamas controlled Gaza so please do not write that "and missiles from Hamas terrain are rarely seen. ". And both the UN & Lebanese army have been unable to prevent Hezbollah smuggling weapons back into Southern Lebanon - only a couple of days ago Nazrallah was boasting that he possessed weapons capable of hitting every corner of Israel.
H Green, Kingston-upon-Thames, UK
I go along with Tim Hames, the Mid-East bottle is at present half full not half empty. Tony Blair's presence is be welcomed by all those that want peace, those who do not, will not be disturbed either way.As many of Israel's enemies are quick to point out, Hamas and Hezbollah were democratically elected, for their electorate's betterment or on an agenda of more death and distruction? Perhaps it is time for the major players and their satellites to consider their position.Should the genie Blair fail to top up the bottle, in a area where WMDs do actually exist, then there will be no winners, however loud their myopic and biased supporters may shout.
As the Indian High Commissioner said at the time of a potential nuclear conflict between his country and Pakistan, "Neighbours who choose not to live at peace with one another, choose to live at war.In
In N.ireland, the bus that Blair drove took ten years to arrive, the Middle East does not have the luxury of such a long journey.
M. fishman, london,
I read with interest your article and withHis Tonyness about to use his vast and succesful experience in Mid East affairs in an already complicated arena I was wondering how deep you have to dig to build an effective fallout shelter
Steve Sinclair, London,
It's good to read something positive about Israel in the UK press today. The security "wall" has reduced suicide attacks in Israel by 98% and only 10% of the security fence is a wall, the other 90% is actually a fence, something that is not often reported. Israel does not implement a policy of apartheid. If one looks at the segregation of people in apartheid South Africa, that was a division of black and white people because the white government was racist against black people. The security fence exists to fight against a security threat, not to stop a certain race of people living their lives.
And to speak with Hamas would only reward them which would in turn make them bolder and to encourage them to use more force against Israel. Israel should continue working with Fatah to resolve the problem that is Hamas.
Michael, Heidelberg, Germany
It seems everyone is concentrating on Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Syria when the resolution will only come with an independent Palestine. Itâs not very hard to notice that the majority of Attacks end up in the name of Palestine. Solve the Palestinian Issue before attempting other ventures in the rest of the Middle East is all Blair can do at the moment to win some credibility.
As to your article, I find it repulsive that you might indirectly defend the Israeli Air Bombardment of cities that Killed 1200 Civilians in 2 Months. Arguing that Hezbollah where using Civilians as shields also has no excuse. Lebanese Army has been fighting Fatah Al-Islam for 2 Months in order to not kill innocent civilians.
Being more careful with Choice of Words as you said is vital. And congratulations to you sir, as you are certainly one to choose them correctly; however biased your words may be.
Fadi Aboualfa, Athens, Greece,
Reading this article is similiar to the experience of listening to someone who describes the colour of a car that they've seen as black and then listening to someone else who swears that the colour of the same car is in fact yellow.
According to American, Israeli and French media, there is a huge build-up of Israeli and Syrian forces along the Golan heights. Syria has recalled its citizens from abroad and has armed itself with many thousands of rockets.
The same media note that Hizbullah has rebuilt the weapons systems that they had prior to the 2006 Lebanon war. They also point out that Hamas has 'imported' 12 tonnes of explosives over the crossing that exists between the Gaza strip and Eygpt. Hamas has some 30,000 very heavily armed fighters at its disposal and a mandate to destroy Israel.
Given Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel apparently feels less safe than it has at any time over the last 25 years. How the heck does one reconcile these reports with Mr.Hames report?
Tom Scholes, London, UK
I cannot think of any Israeli foreign policy action which I can approve of in the last 5 years. They all seem based around the idea that the welfare of Palestinians is of no consequence, and that all the resources available in areas where palestianians currently live should be available to Israel. But rather than bother debating this point with your "commentator", I would just note that the real product of the Lebanese "war" was to demonstrate a) how even handed we are in the UK. b) how effective the new anti-tank weaponry available to Hezbollah is c) how effective the IDF airforce is at bombing civilians. The bottom line? Israeli conscipts sitting in Merkevas will have to come to terms with the possibility that the Palestinians they are intimidating are armed with effective anti-tank equipment, and could potentially kill them.
This is a radical change. If you dont recognise this you just havnt been paying attention.
Harry, London, UK
"...declared goals were too ambitious, and it was publicly stated that fighting would continue until they were achieved. But the authorized military operations did not enable their achievement."
(Winograd Commission, Preliminary Report, April 2007)
Difficult to reconcile the above with the statement of Tim Hames that Israel was the military and strategic victor, and especially so as the two soldiers taken in the incident that sparked the conflict have not been recovered.
The deaths of hundreds of civilians makes a claim of political benefits sound hollow.
Jan Jansen, Amsterdam, Netherlands
An interesting and insightful analysis from Tim Hames.
Israel is now enjoying a period of quiet with its neighbors, international political support, and economic prosperity that it hasn't seen for a long while. This is a time when Israelis will be willing to take risks. So, yes, it is a good opportunity for a new widely respected Middle East peace envoy such as Tony Blair.
And regarding Mr. McGregor's comment above, it would really be foolish of Israel to "pull down that disgraceful wall" which protects Israel's citizens from Palestinian terror. The wall will come down when the Palestinians are ready for peace.
And, Mr. McGregor, comparing Israel to apartheid is ridiculous, ignorant, or both. Israel has Arab chief justices, Arab members of parliament, Arab government ministers, Arab army officers, Arab diplomats, and Arab industrialists, writers, scientists, and more (though, of course, it still has much to improve).
Ehad Ha'am, Ra'anana, ISRAEL
""IF Israel really wants peace then an act of good faith would be to pull down that disgraceful wall of shame that bespoke 's apartheid"
THe wall is a sad state of affairs,however the reality is since it has been up suicide bombing has effectively stopped.How anyone can blame the Israelis for wanting to stop suicide bombers frankly beggars belief.
the truth, manchester,
if Hamas really wants peace ,ALL they need to do is accept israels right to EXIST.
steven, london, uk
I had to double check on the author of this article, I thought it must have been written by Alistair Campbell. How on earth can the Lebanon situation have improved the chance of peace in the region, not only have the Palestinians splintered, there is now no unified authoirity to negotiate with, Hizbollah, is still deeply entrenched in the Lebanon, the non combatant population of the Lebanon & Palestine are now more deeply embittered than ever at yet another dose of Western 'impartiality' and Israeli force, not to mention the increasing influence of Al Queda in the area. Your correspondent feels that Blair of all people can bring peace and stability, as he argues the situation is now more conducive to peace. Its enough to make any sane person weep!
Kevin Sullivan, London, UK
Any who can describe the Wall that Israel is building as 'so-called' reveals his bias.
Tim Kirby, Great Easton,
While much of what Tim Hames writes is true, he is not correct on two points. First, although we rarely hear about them, not a day goes by without Hamas rockets or missiles being fired from Gaza into Israel, usually targeting the town of Sderot or the wider Negev. Second, it is a fact that Hezbollah is rearming in southern Lebanon, thanks to the Syrians. Israel does indeed want peace; Hamas and Hezbollah are committed to Israel's destruction, and both organizations have kidnapped and still hold Israeli citizens. Let them release Gilad Shlit, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.
Tony Blair has his work cut out!
B. Harris, London,
The flood waters must have got to McGregor of Tunbridge Wells. Hamas' stated aim is to destroy Israel. They have no interest in peace. The wall has slowed down the Fatah suicide bombers. The UK protects Islamist militants.
Tony, Edgware,
'Wall of shame', M McGregor? As Tim Hames has said, the 'wall' (mostly a fence, but never mind) has helped to protect Israel from suicide bombers. Incidentally, of course, it has saved Palestinian lives, by protecting Palestinian children from the pressure to become suicide bombers themselves. Unless you think that the deaths of Palestinian children is worth it in order to kill Israelis, in which case the shame is yours.
Harry Goldstein, London,
A government principle objective is to protect its citizens. Why should Israel pull down a wall which has been successful in preventing suicide bombers. Every other previous effort be they giving control to the palestinian government, peace negotiations or pulling out of gaza failed. The wall must stay to protect the Israelis and to try and keep some form of stabilty in the region.
Anthony Stern, London, UK
It's good to read something positive about Israel in the UK press today. The security "wall" has reduced suicide attacks in Israel by 98% and only 10% of the security fence is a wall, the other 90% is actually a fence, something that is not often reported. Israel does not implement a policy of apartheid. If one looks at the segregation of people in apartheid South Africa, that was a division of black and white people because the white government was racist against black people. The security fence exists to fight against a security threat, not to stop a certain race of people living their lives.
And to speak with Hamas would only reward them which would in turn make them bolder and to encourage them to use more force against Israel. Israel should continue working with Fatah to resolve the problem that is Hamas.
Michael, Heidelberg, Germany
This is the most sensible and intelligent article on the Arab-Israeli conflict I have read in years. Mr. Blair's success in bringing peace to Northern Ireland could be repeated here. Like the IRA, many Palestinians, and not least Mr Abbas, are beginning to realise that they can achieve a great deal more by peaceful means (negotiations, etc.) than they ever could by violence.
David Capitanchik, Aberdeen, Scotland
IF Israel really wants peace then an act of good faith would be to pull down that disgraceful wall of shame that bespoke 's apartheid. And include Hamas in discussions as to ignore them is fatal.£Everyone constantly thinks it is ALL down to Palestine doing as told...or else.
M McGregor, Tunbridge Wells, Kent