Tim Hames
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About 20 years ago, a film called 9½ Weeks caused something of a sensation. This was mostly because of its daring and explicit sexual content (the scene involving strawberries was especially memorable). That movie does, though, serve as an unexpected metaphor for the present political situation.
The plot featured Kim Basinger as a woman who falls for a smooth, supremely confident and charismatic Mickey Rourke, who is almost a stranger, and proceeds to submit to him completely and in a range of interesting places. The affair blazes until, 9½ weeks in, she has to decide whether she is content to enslave herself to him. At this point, partly to her own surprise, she chooses to walk away, leaving him shattered.
Today David Cameron is Mickey Rourke and the electorate Kim Basinger. After a swift but red-hot relationship (minus the strawberries, mercifully), it would appear from the polls that the lady is for turning. The Conservative Party is distraught at this development with parts of it pondering whether it, too, should flounce away from a leader in whom it was interested only because he looked like a winner. The man himself insists that he will not change – there will be “no retreat to the comfort zone” or any chance that the Tories might “go on a wobble”.
That fighting talk would be more compelling if evidence of retreat and wobble had not already been accumulating. Three developments in the past month are proof of it.
The first was the Shadow Cabinet reshuffle conducted four weeks ago today. In it, the Conservative leader spectacularly failed to deal with his two most pressing personnel problems: George Osborne and William Hague. One has too little credibility for his present post and the other is too good for his position. Shadow Chancellors, like Chancellors, are supposed to have the air of a bank manager about them. Who wants to turn up to their local Barclays or NatWest to ask for a loan and be confronted with someone who looks 14, seems immensely pleased with himself and has a voice that might qualify him for a Bee Gees tribute group, sitting behind the manager’s desk?
Meanwhile, Mr Hague has spent 18 months impressively demolishing the Government. Alas for the Tories, it is the administration in Sudan that has been battered by him. The Sudanese might be thankful, but Shadow Foreign Secretary is no post for such an asset to the Tory party.
So instead of swapping these characters around, Mr Cameron shunts David Willetts, his Shadow Education Secretary, to one side as punishment for failing his political 11+ on grammar schools and removes Francis Maude, his controversial but ultra-modernising party chairman. Mr Maude’s replacement is a woman who seems to have a choice of surnames, either Caroline Spelman or Caroline Verynicebut, because almost every Conservative MP with whom I have spoken about her starts the conversation with: “Caroline? She’s very nice, but . . .”
Then there is policy. The Mr Cameron of December 2005 was wary about promising tax cuts, had little enthusiasm for telling other people how they should organise their family lives, knew that something had to be said about crime but preferred that David Davis did it – and treated the word “Europe” as if it were a swear box into which £50 had to be placed if it was mentioned.
Where are we at the end of July 2007? Mr Cameron has all but committed himself to tax breaks in return for wedding rings, seems to have swung bemusingly from hug-a-hoodie to hang-a-hoodie, and is demanding a referendum on an EU treaty that is not yet finalised in the vain hope of pleasing The Daily Mail. How long before immigration as an issue?
Finally, and in many ways most importantly, there is the matter of tone. The Tories have completely mishandled the Brown succession, looking cheap, carping and churlish. At some moment during the long summer parliamentary recess, Mr Cameron might undertake the following exercise. He should watch his past four performances at Prime Minister’s Questions but with the mute button turned on: that’s akin to the way that voters experience snippets of this ritual. Then, with the sound still off, he should compare them with his first four outings as the Leader of the Opposition. He will be able to identify an obvious shift in body language. He has traded Mr Amiable for Mr Angry.
The core of the Conservative problem is this. Gordon Brown has long been a product in search of a slogan, who appears to have found one (“a serious man for serious times”). Mr Cameron remains a slogan (“I’m a new Tory”) that is still looking for a product. If he does not find one, then there will be an inevitable slip back to the old Toryism. The track record of such an approach is awful. Marx, citing Hegel, declared that history repeated itself once as tragedy (Iain Duncan Smith after Mr Hague) and then as farce (Michael Howard after Mr Duncan Smith). We may be about to find out what history can do when repeating itself for the third time of asking, and I would bet it is not appealing.
Which would be dire for Mr Cameron personally. At least Mr Hague, with his Bruce Willis haircut, and Michael Howard, with his slightly Transylvanian demeanour, could look and sound like sincere right-wing populists. Mr Cameron could never manage that posture. It would be like casting Julian Clary to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger as The Terminator.
Mr Cameron has between today and the end of the Conservative Party conference to “go neutral” (not to waste money and poll ratings trying to “go after”) on Mr Brown and to outline a version of modernisation that has ideas, not image, at its centre. If he has not done that by then, his prospects at the next general election will be pitiful. This is a chillingly short timeframe. How long is it, more or less? About 9½ weeks.

Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University
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To your correspondent (from Guildford) who said that the Tories must return to core values for their bed rock support, I say: that is their problem. Their bed rock support is old, right-wing and out of touch with the rest of the electorate - also, there are not many of them and they are dying off. Cameron at least had the sense (until Hague and co interfered) to try and "connect" (to use a media word) with the majority by moving to the centre. Maintaining Tory "core values" will keep the party in opposition for the rest of this century.
david, Ligneyrac, France
I fail to understand why the Tory's do not see Cameron as an Ex public school waffler soaked in politics and nothing else, there again it took those South of the border a long time to see Thatcher as something that fell off a broomstick. Birds of a feather????
Dave Madley, Alicante, Spain
David Cameron should join the Labour Party, as he has always admired Tony Blair as a leader. He doesn't seem to have anything as a Tory leader to offer that will persuade the voters to choose him instead of Gordon brown. Brown is more mature and deliberate, and seems to know what he wants for the British people. Its different for Cameron
Vigil Jima, LEEDS, West Yorkshire
I suspect the Tories will rue the day that Kenneth Clark contested, and lost, the leadership battle in 97, 01 and 05 (particularly 01 and 05). Despite whatever machinations were preoccupying the Tory management at the time, Clark could have brought what Terry above emphasises - "substance, depth and mature, scholarly enquiry". A cycle has passed, and in these pressing times, thought and leadership are required to solve the composite crises of this era.
Olly D., London ,
In the Sunday Magazine Paul Ham wrote a piece about Faibridge Farm School Molong, New South Wales, I was one of those children back in 1953, I was at the Farm until 1957. I am distressed about all the negative reporting about the Farm. especially about the Cottage Mothers, whilst I realised that some of them were not upto the job. in fact they were dreadful, in this day and age they would never be employed, on the other hand some were excellent. I and fourteen other girls lived in Lilac Cottage and we had a Miss Rose Cohen who looked after us, she in fact was a refugee from Singapore who had escaped the Japanese during the war , she had been a teacher at Raffles Girls High School, Miss Cohen taught us values which we still hold today, I am still in touch with some of the girls from Lilac Cottage and we all feel aggrieved that that people like her have not been acknowledged The author could have more positive in his research for the Book,
Julia Futcher, Sittingbourne , Kent
The problem overlooked is that it is not the people of Britain who decide elections anymore... it is the media.
The spin the media puts on events is what decides most peoples thoughts. Its all very well debating the substance behind Cameron or Osborne's incompetence. In reality average Joe Britain doesnt know, or more to the point care, who George Osborne.
As a result it comes down to the tabloids:
Gordon Brown says upgrade cannabis. Daily Mail says this is good, Labour go up in the polls.
Conservatives don't win a couple of safe Labour seats in by-elections. Daily Mail says they should of, Conservatives go down in the polls.
In reality there is no evidence upgrading cannabis will stop people using it and the Conservatives remained solid in two seats Labour lost a large portion of their majority.
For this reason it matters not a jot who has better policies but rather, just like in America, who wins the media popularity contest
Ben, Edinburgh,
It is true that David Cameroon's honeymoon with the public is over. He has become a liability to the Tory party. Every iniative is seen as a gimmeck. What the hell was he doing in Rwanda when he had problems in his own backyard.
His popularity seem to be restricted in London and the South of England.
What does Tory party stand for other than Hug a hooddie nonsense?
Either Kenneth Clark or David Davis would be better to lead the Tory party.
Only then would I consider voting Tory.
Edwin Jacob, Hounslow, UK
When we look back - after Parris and what he stirred up on Saturday and Hames today - in probably only slightly more than 9 1/2 weeks, will we be surprised that this weekend marked the end of Cameron and even that by then he is "gone", blown away by unprecedented poor judgement on the whole range of the current political agenda?! And after such a promising start too. Will we learn that gut wrenching stunts, presentation, nicknames, no ties and bicycle helmets are absolutely no substitute for substance, depth and mature, scholarly enquiry leading to published policies? Although 91/2 weeks in politics is about equivalent to a light year in the natural world. I doubt that we'd be surprised as much as I doubt that the Tory party will learn anything from another failed attempt at manufacturing a leader. But the really chilling prospect is that this scenario will mean no opposition to Mr Brown until after the election after next or even the next one!! Seriously , seriously chilling that!
Terry Carlton, Chichester, UK
Camerons latest mis judged neo colonial trip to Africa whilst leaving his own Oxfordshire constituents up the creek, flooded ,without a paddle says it all. The Heir to Blair says it all.It's so sad to see the talentless Notting Hill crowd disappear up their own vacuous back passages. The Conservative Party has been hi jacked by a misguided group of West London cronies who lack vision or policy. Brown will withdraw troops from Iraq with Parliaments backing in the new year leaving "Dave" the self confessed Emperor with no clothes.It's about time real Conservatives save the Party before it is too late.
Craig Macartney, Ipswich, England
I have voted Conservative all my adult life. I'm now 64, there is no way that I am going to vote for Cameron [Blair Mk2]
I'm fed up with spin, lets get back to basics and core values.
S A Wood, Kendal, England
Brown was a disaster for the country as Chancellor, Pensions, taxes etc At the moment he is pushing the nonsensical "Change" message. Sooner rather than later that will get rumbled in the way that the spin of tax cuts in his last budget was. Cameron is right to stick to his guns. Have you forgotten the local election results in May? The next election will be won by sticking to principle, and producing an honest prospectus of the United Kingdom.
Jeremy, London,
I had high hopes for Cameron, and at the beginning it looked as if he had the stuff of leadership. Now he strikes me as moon-faced and vacuous; his only policy of note is concerned with the environment. Very commendable but of no interest to those who want to see the heavy hand of central Government removed from their collars.
He's a busted flush, as far as I'm concerned, but the Conservatives are in a bind now. They can't ditch him until after the next election. Matthew Parris was right ... the Conservatives should hope not to win the next one but the one after - by then the economy will have unravelled and they won't be in a position to be blamed. Perhaps Cameron has a plan after all.
David Garfield, London, UK
Cameron's problems are part of a wider Tory failure. Why do their leaders always resign after losing an election? Churchill didn't, nor did other great leaders in the past. They treated failure as a necessary part of politics, as a harsh way of gaining experience and authority.
Many of the issues raised by the Tories in the last election are still pressing. On some - like Europe- they were clearly right. An experienced and authoritative leader could have the government on the ropes. But the Tories lack the authority to do this, because there has been no continuity of leadership.
We're told William Hague doesn't want the job, because it will harm his earnings as a speaker and consultant. So if a past leader of the party doesn't think the job's important, why should the rest of us?
John Farrington, Hitchin, UK
Why did the Conservative Party decide to adopt the style and much of the substance of new labour just as public opinion was largely swinging away from this position. Although I agree it is difficult for the Conservatives to talk about taxes and Europe without dragging up the awaful memories people have of them over the last 15 to 20 years they need to be able to articulate a clear position on issues that matter to voters. Simply aping Labour's policies on public services is not providing the electorate with a compelling alternative to vote for them. This is particularly problematic when David Cameron has seemingly gone out of his way to act in a manner which makes himself look lightweight in comparison to Gordon Brown. The smug reaction of the Conservative leadership to the appointment of Andy Coulson is illuminating to the relative emphasis they place on spin rather than detailed policy.
John, Beijing, China
Each time there is a televised match no one ever mentions the quality of commentary.one big switch off for me is having to endure 90 mins of Mr Horrible voice himself. ANDY GRAY. Why we
have to listen to him all the time is past a joke.And lets face the fact he is only telling us what happened moments ago on the field.So
is it not time to end this silly idea of using two mouth pieces on the field and settle for how the BBC do it on Saturday evening and use just the one commentator
ALAN HIRST, Conisbrough Nr Doncaster, South Yorkshire
The Tory Party needs to display a sense of calm eventhough they momentarily have a less popular Leader.
OK, Gordon Brown may exploit this weakness and have a snap general-election in October 2007 before it is too late for him??
The US/Israeli alliance may decide time has run-out, and get on and bomb Iran.
The best Tory policy at the moment therefore is to play for time, and stop and being introspective.
Instead expose any Labour skeletons that an unwitting Gordon Brown may have inherited from Tony Blair??
Most of us were surprised that in his recent Diaries, Alastair Campbell did not not reveal the physical ID of the WMD over which we had to go to war with Iraq in 2003, and could still be at the root of the crisis now with Iran?
Either Campbell dared not have revealed it??
Or just maybe they are so secret even now that even he was told ??
I feel it is a pity that Dr. David Kelly is still not around to tell us?
Michael Blatchford, Bath, UK
Dear Ms Shilling,
ref. Friday July 27th. 'Whether RP or the curious confection of glottal stops that it presently
favours ....
..... As an RP speaker, the prospect of finding my unfashionable accent
the object of a small revival, however silly, is too delicious to resist'
The revival is at hand! Currently teachers are receiving their instructions from the Dfes
(Education) in the Primary National Strategy
book
'Letters and Sounds
Principles and Practice of High Quality Phonics
Six Phase Teaching Programme
available for down load www.standards.dfes.gov.uk or go to www.teachernet.gov.uk/publications.'
I will not bore you with fine detail, but sufficient to give the headings of Phase one activities,
arranged under the following seven aspects.
Aspect 1 General sound discrimination- environmental sounds.
Aspect 2 General sound discrimination-instrumental sounds.
Aspect 3 General sound discrimination- body percussion.
Aspect 4 Rhythm and Rhyme.
Aspect 5 Voice Sounds.
Aspect 6 Oral blending and segmenting.
You will realise the difficulties for children (small) at school when Mothers talk about glottal stops,
as perceived by our educationalists.
I read some more, but I couldn't face all of it.
But how do you include regional accents in all this?
jeff turner, Wimborne, Dorset
Well, 'Dave' deliberately vacated the right-wing of politics which says a lot for his understanding of a vacuum.
Suprise, suprise - it's being filled by someone else!
YouGov polls are now measuring 11% 'others' which has risen from the general election's 7%. And its not going to UKIP!The BNP polled 9% at Sedgefield which speaks for itself.
Today's BBC poll of British Asians' 'loyalty' to Britishness is not going to help Dave either, or Gordon for that matter.
Immigration is the problem all over Europe.
Politicians ignore it at their peril.
John Gregory Flinn, Béalencourt , France
I am always amazed at the idea that William Hague is a benefit to the Tory party. The public never liked him and as far as I know they still don't. Those who thought he beat Blair at PMQs are deluded. Bringing back serial losers is a lose , lose situation .
Dave B , york,
Cameron is copying Tony Blairs NEW LABOUR mission, which is now dead in the water thankfully.
As a former Labour Party member who left the Party because of NEW LABOUR spin etc, where principls were thrown out with the bath water, I say DON'T GO THERE DAVE, be a true Tory !! Show that there is an alternative to Brown in the pure sense, or else the Tories will never win an election.
IAN PAYNE, Lichfield, STAFFS
Brown is more in tune with the electorate the majority which in the current uncertain times of terrorism, mass immigration and rapid soco-economic transformational change seeks assurance in solid social-conservative (small c) values and actions. In contrast, Cameron, in his signature call for 'hug a hoddie' comes across as a 'softie' out of touch with 'hardie' mainstream political sentiments.
Andrew Johnson, London,
The dangerous thing about Mr Cameron is the void to the right he has created. Some people think the answer to this is voting for the BNP, but most people dont know what the BNP consititution actually states: black people would not be considered british, and the jewish and muslim faiths would not be recognised. As demonstrated in some of the comments added here, there are some entireley undeducated people, making rash voting decisions, in protest of Mr Cameron's lurch to the center. I'm a teenager with left-center ideals, but even I want Cameron to take back the right wing, so we can avoid irresponsible protest voters giving parlimentary seats to racist parties.
Calum Higgins, Ammanford, Carmarthenshire
The Tories voted for Cameron as Leader to counter Blair not to counter Brown and this is their problem.I never saw Cameron as a serious politician only another Tony.
Now we see Brown being serious and suprise ,suprise the country seems to support him.I sometimes wonder what all these people do to the Party Offices,do thet not realise that the people want a change but what they are being offered is not what is required to run the country properly.
Nigel Wheatcroft, Wimbledon, uk
This question puzzles me: "How long before immigration as an issue?". Immigration is an issue, probably the biggest issue facing any possible Government of the UK at the moment. In opinion poll after poll, immigration tops the list of concerns that voters have. So how can immigration not be an issue?
Richard, Worcester, England
It is the case now that David Cameron comes over as a potentially nice head boy up against the figure of the experienced head master Mr Brown.
Paul Bradley, Eastbourne, E Sussex
The last ten years have been the happiest of my life as I have watched a party for which I have had lifelong loathing strip the final layers of veneer off itself and reveal the moral and intellectual vacuum beneath. And they've done it themselves, that's the real joy. Tony Blair was a master at cutting them down to size, but his contribution was insignificant, an entertaining sideshow compared to their brutal and fascinating destruction of each other. So, as the party finally goes into its death throes, I have the added pure enjoyment of knowing that no matter how much I hated them they hated each other more.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
You hit the nail on the head when you write that Cameron became leader on the grounds that he looked like a winner.For a while that illusion has sustained him.As long as the polls look favourable all was well.Now the wheels have started to come off and he begins to look far from a winner.If Brown is as cunning as he is painted then he must go for an election in October(who knows what thw Spring may bring).If he does,Camerons goose will be cooked.That must be Camerons greatest fear at the moment.I feel this would be a good thing for Conservatives in the long run.Cameron was going to run out of steam sooner or later and then be exposed as having no clothes.Better it happens now.If the Conservatives have any instinct for survival they should get rid of him.
patrick, Notts,
I have been a Tory supporter for 40 years but unless David Cameron comes out in support of "Middle England" and offers radical solutions to Council Tax, Pensions and Immigration, my vote goes to the BNP. Think again, Mr Cameron.
Derek, Bristol,
Clever article.Cameron has lost the plot and it wont change in nine and a half weeks.Cameron lacks substance and policies and he wont be able to convince the public in that short time. My bet is Brown will withdraw from Iraq at the end of the year and go for a spring election. The Lib Dems will have lost there only policy they attack Labour on and Cameron and the Tories will be still floundering on policies. Cameron will resign and go back into PR and media his only job he is good at.
BILL REES, Pieusse, France
Osborne should definitely go off and grow up quietly somewhere - in the old days one could have sent him off to be a District Commissioner somewhere where boy would develop into man. In his more tender youth he came across as thoughtful, sensible person. Nowadays he just mouths inane neo-socialist soundbites fed to him by Dave and Francis.
William Hague has definite talent and presence. His problem was becoming Leader at too young an age. Now he is developing into prime ministerial material, a factor of which Dave is doubtless well aware.
Gervas Douglas, Andorra la Vella,
Brown has been leader for 32 days and Cameron 600 days; and the air of a game show pervades the Tories with Cameron as compere - a sort of Michael Barrymore.
Osborne should be replaced by someone who knows the subject - Redwood ?
Cameron is too keen on pleasing Tatler and Cosmopolitan and frankly is way adrift of What Car and PC Magazine
and it is always Cameron....he seems to have no experience or talent to display.....after 18 months that is a telling indictment
Boaz, Skipton, England
The public has seen through Mr Cameron. I have never voted other than Tory and I have no faith in the man. I find myself actually preferring Gordon Brown so I am no right wing reactionary.
Cameron, or at least the Tories with or without him, need to find a way to say things without sounding like obsessive and selfish lunatics. This is a common perception. The Cameron approach has been simply to steer clear of saying very much at all other than nice cuddly issues such as the environment and hugging hoodies. The hug a hoodie nonsense was probably the moment that I and others saw through him and rolled our eyes in despair.
It isn't as if Labour has been particularly competent or clever. The spin of Brown is as transparently obvious as Blair's. But Cameron keeps missing the gaping open goals presented to him.
Osborne it is true is embarrassingly awful but Cameron is not much better. His speech in October will have to be stunning and will have to have real content.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
If the Tories are to win the next election hey must return to their core values.
At less that is were their bed rock support is.
Bernar Parke, GUILDFORD,
David Cameron after 20 months has shown he is only a apprentice.
And he can't promote William Hague any more because it will easily show, this is so. For instance after Brown said no to a referendum. Any decent opposition leader would have traveled around the Country talking to people ,and explaining why you should have one and why you can't trust Brown. And on immigration some towns are busting at the seams he should be there and confront Brown in the papers and Parliament about it. All too often it is left to the newspapers and Television to highlight Brown's shot comings and be the real opposition. The conclusion is, he is inept.
Alan Walton, Leicester, England
Mr Hames.
You say
'Marx, citing Hegel, declared that history repeated itself once as tragedy (Iain Duncan Smith after Mr Hague) and then as farce (Michael Howard after Mr Duncan Smith)'
That would be the same Mr Howard that knocked off 100 Labour's majority and won the popular vote in England, would it?
Perhaps we should ask ourselves what Mr Brown will do when he runs out of policy u-turns - policies developed while he was No2 in the Government.
Once the super casinos are rubble, canabis is upgraded and he's back from his holiday in England, what then? Mr Brown's schtick as the un-Blair will come unstuck when he runs out of u-turns.
J H Holloway, London,