Tim Hames
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Of all the people to derail a 2007 election a Tory politician who died some 200 years ago must be the most improbable. Yet if William Pitt the Younger had not introduced a “legacy, succession and estate duty” in 1796 there would be no votes today in promising to slash it. As all opinion studies indicate, it was the Conservative pledge to raise the threshold for paying inheritance tax to £1 million that compelled Gordon Brown to abandon a contest this November. Without it, he would probably have dissolved Parliament tomorrow and with confidence.
It is, instead, the opposite for the Prime Minister. His “humiliation” may be less of an embarrassment in the longer term than is predicted. The option of keeping an early poll in play was worth the risk even if the reward did not materialise. The public cares far less about these events than do the pundits. Besides which, he has the fortune of the surreal combination of Jonny Wilkinson’s foot, Lewis Hamilton’s tyres and the inquest of Diana, Princess of Wales, to crowd out the adverse headlines.
Nor are the polls as awkward as they might seem. The striking aspect of them is the consistency of Labour’s 38-39 per cent rating, the same standing that it has been since Mr Brown’s first weekend in office. The two surveys published yesterday putting the Conservatives ahead both had support for the Liberal Democrats at incredibly low levels.
The same YouGov poll for The Sunday Times that had a three-point Tory lead also had Mr Brown with higher personal approval than David Cameron. The ICM poll in marginal seats for the News of the World that showed a 44-38 per cent Conservative edge also revealed that when asked whether the Tories were ready to form an administration, the response was 37-52 per cent in the negative.
Worryingly, this means that at least 7 per cent of those canvassed were ready to back a party that they did not think was prepared for power. That’s democracy, I suppose.
The odds are that Labour’s advantage will be restored shortly. But that advantage will be maintained only if the Prime Minister and Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, neutralise the inheritance tax question.
In theory, it is bizarre that the tax should have such potency. Free-market enthusiasts should always prefer to reduce taxes on money that has been earned through enterprise rather than a windfall. Social democrats should be unhappy with any measure that entrenches the position of those who are already comparatively better off. It is not surprising that there is a public demand for a tax cut of some sort – as is reported today, disposable income as a proportion of all income is at its lowest for a decade. But one could win from the Conservative inheritance proposals immediately only if one slipped poison into mother’s coffee.
And the number of possible beneficiaries is tiny. About 25,000 people would have benefited last year from a £1 million threshold. In terms of floating voters living in crucial constituencies, perhaps 3,000 individuals at most would have been enriched by it.
This is, though, a case of logic, shmogic. Inheritance tax has a talismanic status massively out of proportion to the statistics.
It enjoys this for three reasons. The first is symbolic. It reinforces the notion that there is nowhere that you are safe from the taxman, even in a coffin. The second is emotive.
There is a sense in which Richard Dawkins and his fellow atheists are as committed to life after death as much as those who attend church every Sunday. There is a powerful psychological appeal to the idea that a little part of us carries on from beyond the grave through what we do with our last financial bequest, particularly if it is handed to the children. Finally, inheritance tax is not really about inheritance in its wider context at all. It is about the British and property.
Economists berate this fixation and the alleged “distortions” that it causes. I disagree with them. If this country were a boat it would sink seconds after launch because too many people would be crowded into its south eastern section. This part of England is the most densely populated area in Europe after the Netherlands. It is entirely rational that land and what is built upon it should be valued so highly. Rising property prices have led millions of people to conclude that they could be captured by inheritance taxation. They resent this bitterly.
Labour cannot allow the Conservatives a monopoly on reform here. The smart move would be to address the property issue directly. The Chancellor should announce that the existing thresholds and rates of the tax will remain in place but the principal family home would be exempt from consideration. It should be possible for the Treasury to make up the money lost by targeting the super-rich – one hopes in a more numerate manner than a poll tax levied on an unknown number of nondomiciles.
Some on the Centre Left will scream betrayal at this suggestion. The charge will be that such a tax break is too regressive in its impact. There is, in fact, a resolutely progressive argument that can be made in favour of it.
So few people are ultimately trapped by inheritance tax because so many are willing to do so much to avoid it. The current rules provide an artificial incentive for older people to sell large homes early and move into smaller ones. They thus compete with and invariably beat younger, poorer couples and families who are interested in acquiring the same houses.
The building industry has an inducement to build new homes aimed squarely at the retired providing shared facilities for them (the McCarthy and Stone model) and not at young workers. Unless inheritance tax is addressed, its perverse impact on the housing market will be ever stronger.
William Pitt the Elder once observed: “Don’t talk to me about a man being able to talk sense: everyone can talk sense. Can he talk nonsense?” It is time for ministers to appreciate that it would be not be nonsense for them to kill the death-tax issue.

Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University
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We are told that there were 25000 IHT tax paying estates last year. It seems to me that even if that number should have been several times greater that is irrelevant, because the Government know that present policies will produce a continual rise in numbers, and hence tax income, and wishes to protect what used to be a "hidden" rising income.
The problem for the Government is that millions of individuals who have gone through life uninterested in the threshold of a tax that seemingly would not affect them in life or death (it only ever used to apply to the filthy rich who anyway largely avoided it), can now see how IHT is now taxing quite ordinary estates comprising a house and little or nothing in savings. In the last ten years the Labour Government has not raised the threshold to keep the tax-take fairly constant, it has allowed small threshold rises calculated to ensure that ever more estates will fall into the tax bracket. That was their mistake.
The "hidden" tax is now clearly visible to more and more people, and for every estate that pays some tax several people are likely to be affected and perhaps dozens will get to hear about it. It's thousands of pounds taken in one bite, and rather than a fairly annoying but manageable drip like Income, Value Added, or Council tax - more and more people are aware of how a huge amount of their money can disapper in a moment.
J Smith, London,
the whole thing is pathetic. people should be making their own way in life, not relying on handouts from mummy and daddy when they're middle-aged.
Hugh, London,
As I understand it, the seriously wealthy (whom this tax was aimed at) can avoid it. The "comfortably poor" who fall into IHT through prudence and property value increases don't avoid it - for example, an estate of £1m sounds a lot but not if mainly property and nursing care eats into the cash savings. These people get hit. This was not the aim.
My view, it is bad enough that we get taxed on income, but to take it at death, resulting in house sale, is terrible.
We need to remind govt that all taxes are public money and they need to justify getting any at all,
In this case, a threshold of £1m is a good compromise, but still too low (pension fund cap is £1.5m for example).
I am totally against any IHt rate more than 20% as well.
I wan to pass things to my children - god knows, this govt has left them facing a destitute future - only i can help them to help themselves - why can't i do that? Why, for example, can't I pass them my (private) pension on death?
George, chelmsford, UK
The issue is that of perception, and justification, beneficairies can see no justification for tax on assetts that are paid for out of taxed earnings. While the revenue perceive that any benefit is a bonus so why should the beneficiary complain. Unfortunately it is difficult to reconcile these positions a notional 1 million prize tag purely satiates the majority, in as much as it does not affect them or they can postulate that those with so much do not need it. It would be far simpler to remove the tax altogether and use the resources of the tax office to better effect on unearned income etc. However these would not be such easy pickings another reason why the chancellor and revenue like the currnet system.
Royston, leeds,
As ever, the Tories are behind the curve and so remain unelectable. Their proposed IHT policy may have won them more votes in the last election when voters were dizzy with their supposed housing wealth. By the next election the housing market will have well and truly crashed, wiping out most of the fictional wealth which has taken some 'ordinary' estates beyond the IHT threshold in recent years. Brown will be unpopular because of the debt ridden crumbling economy built upon totally unproductive housing wealth, but the possibility of paying IHT will be the last thing on most people's minds. What the Tories need is a sound economic stratedgy to reassure the millions who will have been forced into negative equity, bankruptcy and home repossession. Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of ruined buy-to-let investors.
Clive, Sussex, UK
OK, so a lot of people hate IHT, especially second home owners, and those in the property to let rackets, and Council Tax is a mess. Easy peasy, dump them both.
Of course we will need a real, effective, thorough, Property Tax with no let-outs.
Then just wait for the squealing to start.
Tom, Maidstone, UK
Tim Hames- thinking like a Brown supporter, which you clearly appear to be.
The reality is far different from your and Labour's perspective - many people now have property and savings worth over £300,000 and they generally feel very strongly that should both partners die then their wealth should most definitely not cause problems to their children, and nor should the profligate Labour Govt. in particular get anywhere near it.
If you think that this is the only unfair tax, as far as the ordinary working person or pensioner is concerned there is the Council tax, increased hugely under Labour, a 54% total tax take per person, stealth and fiscal drag tax increases such as the National insurance increases and the iniquitous 40% tax hitting middle-income workers ( ie. senior teachers, mid ranking police and hospital staff). And... all these are made worse for taxpayers by seeing appalling mismanagement and wasted billions ( new computer system for NHS) and a Society in meltdown.
Paul Butler, Reading, UK
Of course there would be an immediate effect from the Conservative inheritance tax proposals, if implemented. Millions of older people would be able to relax without worrying about when, and how much, they can safely transfer to their dependents without beggaring themselves if they live to extreme old age. It appears to be a basic human instinct to pass on what one can to one's children; it is the (growing) older constituency to which this policy is most attractive.
kato, oxford,
Hatred of inheritance tax is not about "the British and property." It's about the British and family. After a lifetime of hard work and striving to provide a good home for our children of course we want to pass what we have achieved on to them. And please don't let me hear any of the usual claptrap about children making their own way in the world and not depending on their parents. I earnestly hope that by the time I drop off the perch my then middle aged children will still be working hard to provide for their own families as they are now.
Vivienne, Colchester,
I agree with Callum. I'm very unconvinced that elderly couples will compete with first time buyers. They'll be competing for different properties in different areas for the most part. Moreover they'll be releasing their larger houses onto the market and thus making it easier for families to upgrade and leave their current house for first time buyers to take. It would be good for the property market (and fairer) if houses were sold off rather passed from generation to generation.
I also agree with Chris about the beneficiaries being the heirs. So rather than tax those who worked for the money why don't we tax those who didn't. Tax recipients of large amounts of assets, any time it happens whether from the deceased or not. Then it's no longer the perjorative 'death tax' and simply a windfall tax on all those lucky to be given substantial gifts.
Nick, London,
Remove inheritance tax and apply capital gains tax to the unearned untaxed profit on selling/inheriting property.
Dick Penlothe, Stevenage,
Yes only few pay the tax, but I guess a huge number of people worry about it and and work extremely hard to avoid it. Would it not be wonderful if this stress went away?
S D, reigate, surrey
Mention is rarely made of the effect of the current system of IHT where there is more than one beneficiary. It would be fairer if each child of a testator were to be given his or her own threshold.
laurie, Tunbridge Wells,
Right on! This is all about rising house prices. Council tax stops at about the same level as IHT kicks in. Let's abolish IHT for all our 'principal residences' and bring in a flat-rate Council Tax of about 0.6% on all houses. (Council Tax is almost the only tax that the non-doms pay, so that would hit them too!)
Conall, Margam, Wales
Please no "Last Rites" - that implies that this wretched tax might have life after its death.
Christopher Gillibrand, Brussels/, Belgium in exile
Why all this fuss over IHT? Any inheritor receives £300K plus 60% of any funds above this level.
Nursing home fees on the other hand take ALL of a persons wealth, including property right down to £16K.
I would suggest that voters would be won in greater numbers by any party that offered free care for the elderly, or at least offered to ignore any wealth above say the current £300K IHT limit.
Gordon brown in particular needs reminding that all he would have to do is to treat English OAP's the same as Scottish ones.
IHT still affects people in wealthier areas and will only deliver a small number of voters, wheras nursing home fees affect people in all areas, even if their wealth is well below £300K.
tony, birmingham, uk
The only moral approach is to use tax on unearned income (inheritance) to fund cuts in taxes on earned income. The exact opposite of what was proposed last week.
A possible acceptable compromise is to class a realised inheritance as a capital gain, and tax it in exactly the same way as any other capital gain â with a threshold of £7,500.
Traditional family homes could therefore become naturally exempt â if you inherit a home only to pass it on to your own heirs, you never sell it, never realise a gain on it, and never attract tax. Only if you fuel house price inflation by attempting to profit from your inheritance do you pay tax. QED.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Tim Hames writes that 'the number of possible beneficiaries is tiny. About 25,000 people would have benefited last year from a £1 million threshold.'
A very outdated figure as even the government estimates that 35,000 estates or more will have paid IHT in 2006/7; but, of course, the people who benefit are the heirs, not the deceased. As a large proportion of deceased will have children and grandchildren of voting age, an estate figure of 25,000 or 35,000 hides a considerably larger disgruntled voting population.
Chris Dickinson, Brighton & Hove, UK
With an over heated housing market and shortage of new homes, a pensions crisis, a collapse in personal savings and investments, and the early stages of a personal debt crisis the truly radical move would be the exact opposite of Tim Hames' suggestion.
Why not set the Death Duties personal exemption for savings and investments at a much higher level, while taxing heavily property over a certain value?
This would encourage people to down size earlier releasing equity, it would increase the supply of family housing, it would keep a check on house prices because there would be less benefit in having a super charged housing market, and the increased availability of money could be used to diffuse the savings and pension time-bomb!
Callum, Edinburgh,