Tim Hames
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Who can it have been who thought that new year messages from political party leaders were a welcome idea? There is, admittedly, something of a space between Boxing Day and the chimes of midnight on January 1, but what evidence is there that anyone wants Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg to fill it?
And it is not just these three who feel obliged to issue statements that would make even an astrologer look credible. The minor parties, too, now all take part in this ritual. There is one from Ieuan Wyn Jones, the Plaid Cymru supremo, for instance, that starts with: “Mae 2007 wed i bod yn flwyddyn hanessydoll i'n plaid ...”, which is, frankly, no more comprehensible than that offered by Peter Hain on the Welsh Labour Party website.
Even the BNP, no doubt once again sincerely lamenting the absence of a white Christmas this year, have probably written an annual missive - though on balance I would rather stick with Mr Wyn Jones and move on to discover that “y flwyddyn hon rydym ni wedi ffurfo llywodraeth am y tro cyntaf”.
For whatever it means, it must be far more comforting than the Prime Minister's seasonal assessment. This is so deliberately bleak that it could have been sent simultaneously by Downing Street and on www.thegrimreaper.co.uk (a domain name registered by a mystery individual but without a website). It would seem that Mr Brown, having allowed the upbeat Shirley Hughes to design his Christmas card, decided to balance things by recruiting Stephen King to draft his text. His reassuring theme is “steering a course of stability through global financial turbulence”, with 2008 destined to be “the decisive year of the decade”. A positive bundle of laughs, then.
Is it actually going to be that bad either in Britain or for the Prime Minister? I doubt it. There are three minor reasons and one important one that suggest otherwise.
The minor ones are, admittedly, a shade negative in character (although not nearly as depressing as that new year message) but they could be significant.
The first is that it is extremely improbable that the next 12 months could be as embarrassing for the Government as were the past three months. There is (probably) no other Northern Rock lurking out there. There are a finite number of computer disks that any administration can misplace and these have been identified. The tally of curious individuals who have donated money to the Labour Party by dubious means has surely been exhausted. It is not an iron rule of politics (“Major's Law”) that after one series of calamities another must inevitably follow. And - despite a run of events that was less Mr Bean than Frank Spencer in Some Mothers Do 'Ave 'Em - the two most recent opinion polls have recorded a Tory advantage of only five points.
The second is that the PM has the time and the inclination to learn from misfortune. Some of the psychobabble written about his personality has been lamentable. I think my favourite was from a columnist on another newspaper who, having spent hundreds of words denouncing him for being dogmatic and unwilling to change his stand in response to changing events, then spent several more paragraphs decrying his readiness to throw principle out the window and ape the Tories on reducing inheritance tax.
All the indications are that Mr Brown will accept the advice that he has too small an inner circle attempting to take on far too much and adjust accordingly. He had already begun to sharpen up his parliamentary performance. The performance of Downing Street is far more likely to improve than diminish during 2008.
Finally, the electoral cycle is rather kind to him this year. The campaigns in Scotland and Wales were in May. The ballot for the European Parliament is not until June 2009 (although I am sure that you, like me, are looking forward to it eagerly already). The principal political struggle in 2008 will be in London and Ken Livingstone, for his many faults, is shrewd enough to survive, whatever the background circumstances - and he has been blessed by an opponent in Boris Johnson who appears to be terrified of opening his mouth in case of yet another PR disaster. The other English council contests could well be dire but these seats were last fought in 2004, when Labour managed the equivalent of 26 per cent of the national vote. It would be hard to do much worse than that. There is even the chance of Labour securing some mid-term gains.
All this is, though, small beer compared with the economy. I do not believe that Mr Brown is being cynically calculating by highlighting the “credit crunch” and its potential impact. There is a worst-case scenario in which the menace of inflation means that the Bank of England cannot cut interest rates, real incomes fall, consumption is slashed, unemployment rises and the property market commits hara-kiri. It could happen.
Yet there is also an alternative hypothesis. It involves oil prices tumbling as some of the political concerns that have pumped up its value (particularly a conflict between the United States and Iran) are discounted. The Bank thus finds itself able to reduce the cost of borrowing faster than it expected, and after a spell of cautious retrenchment the average citizen starts to feel wealthier again by the summer. Estimates of a deep decline in economic growth have to be revised upwards. Mr Brown comes out beaming (I concede this part of the story is fanciful) to assume the credit for our salvation. It could happen.
If it does, then there is one initiative with which he could reinforce his standing. He could announce that, as of December 2008 he, at least, will abandon his new year message.

Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University
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How you sycophants do try to put an optimistic spin on everything, I love the way you dismiss Northern Rock as though it was little more than a blip and that there are not more of the same in the system. You are symptomatic of all that is wrong with this rotten government by constantly and stubbornly refusing to accept the reality that is so clear to the rest of us.
This year will see the end, for good and all, of the myth of the economic competence of Gordon Brown, our economy has his prints undeniably all over it and as it unwinds over the coming months there will be no escaping his responsibilities. He will burn.
D Case, Newquay,
Tim Hames is spot on. I endorse his views and believe, as he does, that Brown will have the last laugh. Cameron has no substance in my view, and has woefully failed to take advantage of Brown's dark days to set out a long term agenda. He will be remebered for the one line headlines and fine speeches , but I do not think he is ready to be prime minister. I was shocked to learn from the latest polls that the Tories are only 5 points ahead of Labour, after Brown's apalling performance and the mishaps that befell the government in the last couple of months. Tim Hames is absolutely right: things can only get better for Borwn and Labour.
Moses Koroma, Godalming,
on the narrow point of falling oil prices coming to the rescue of our economy i wouldn't hold my breath. maybe it's been an easy market position from which to play but quite unacknowledged as best i can tell is OPEC's success in keeping the price of crude high without precipitating a recession in the USA.
I feel sure they have learnt much from the experience of the past 12 months and if minor production cuts are needed (which OPEC can easily afford) they will be forthcoming. $80 - 100 oil is something we will have to get used to.
paul birtwistle, london,
You have a miss placed faith in Comrade Brown, he was alongside President Blair for 10yrs destroying this great country, and you believe he could listen and change, get real. This man along with New Labour ( rebranded communism ) with the collusion of the unions have a sinister hidden agenda which if followed through will destroy this country.
Michael, Sheffield,
The words written on MrBrown's personality may be lamentable but fit well with the traits exhibited since his move to the top job, and confirm some even more lamentable comments from his own side ,before his elevation.
This is a man with a moral compass who threw the planned and considered "British workers for British jobs" into his conference speech.A man who exhibited the faliure of his humour and grace when the most expected question at a press conference could not be deflected without a patent untruth.
The man has surrounded hiself with people who offer poorer advice than the average Westminster roof slate,or as witness to his known sourness offer no advice at all and go along on his coatails.
The Prime Minister was tested but once politically by Cameron's speech without notes ,leading to a surge in opposition support and a collapse in on himself.
One needs character to lead and this man has shown us very little.
robert everitt, wolverhampton,
Mr Hames is indulging in VERY wishful thinking if he believes that "There is (probably) no other Northern Rock out there."
The current credit crunch has affected all banks on two levels. Firstly the write-downs on mortgage assets have resulted in alarming tight equity ratios meaning that some banks have had to raise emergency capital (eg Citigroup). Further write-downs are expected to be on the way. Secondly banks have found it hard to gain debt funding from the markets as liquidity dries up - this is what caused Northern Rock its troubles and will potentially cause the same problems at other small banks with large long-term lending commitments (ie our mortgage banks).
There is also a potential wave of corporate bankruptcies as consumers stop spending so freely and debt cannot be cheaply refinanced. The government will have some interesting decisions to make on which companies they wish to bail out a la Northern Rock.
Anna, London, UK
This is mostly fatuous complacency, born possibly of desperation at Labour's state. Best of all is the bit where Hames says "there is (probably) no other Northern Rock lurking out there."
Has it slipped his mind that Northern Rock itself is still out there, a festering sore that needs cauterizing no later than the end of January? At the moment the smart money is on administration followed by nationalisation - which will cost the Treasury a fortune and will almost certainly see taxes soar in the budget to pay for it. After that, the council election results may be somewhat less than favourable (10%, anyone?) - and Brown's annus horribilis may continue.
Huw Clayton, Newent, Gloucestershire,
This article really expresses the triumph of hope over experience. A serious slowdown is inevitable and with it a significant fall in house prices. That is the best hope, because if the enormous outpouring of cash from central banks to stabilise the credit crunch has is usual effect there will be a significant rise in inflation and double digit interest rates.
2008 will be a financial annus horibilis.
John, Jakarta, Indonesia
Is the theory that the Govt. cannot lose anymore Data, because they have lost it all already, supposed to reassure us?
R James, Clifton, UK
Dream on Mr Haynes. England (where all those council elections will be held) are sick to death of Gordon and the incompetent second-raters in the cabinet - I'm sure they will send an appropriate message as soon as they get the opportunity.
Donna Walker, Effingham, Surrey
Agree entirely. It will be much better for Brown - and indeed his chums. As somebody once observed 'The first duty of a politician is to enjoy a lot of travel, free of charge'. Our leaders are giving tons of money in aid overseas thereby guaranteeing a nice lot of foreign trips in 2008. (They'd rather do that than visit hospitals or open police stations or any of the other activities which mean much to the citizen at home but are desperately boring to leaders).
john problem, winchester, uk
Come off it Hames; you get worse.
Brown is, after all, Stalin , if with Beanish attributes and who wants that?
Dr J Findlater, Carnforth,
Your capacity for complacency and self delusion is extraordinary.
1. "it is extremely improbable that the next 12 months could be as embarrassing for the Government as were the past three months..."
Er, why not? Given it's track record I'd have thought it highly likely that more cock ups will come to light - I have yet to see them do anything successfully (except lie).
"The PM has the time and the inclination to learn from misfortune"
On the contrary this PM appears to believe himself incapable of error...
" The principal political struggle in 2008 will be in London The other English council contests could well be dire but these seats were last fought in 2004, when Labour managed ... 26 per cent of the national vote. It would be hard to do much worse than that.
So, Tim, all the other council elections (for the whole of England) are to you less important than who becomes the the Mayor of London? That says it all. Complacent, blinkered and in denial. Times - shame on you.
Simeon 12, Telford,
Gordon should rest on his 'laurels'. A 1 time PM. It would be best for him to follow his 'socialist' predecessor and hanker for royalties from his memoirs, speaking engagements and perhaps as a special envoy (N Korea?).
Andy, Caerdydd,
...and, of course, you win the Lottery, the Tooth Fairy finally pays up and Father Christmas delivers your entire wish list. Now, back to reality ...
eddie foster, mirthios, crete, greece