Tim Hames
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Robert Mugabe in all his 84 years has not until now been known for comedic flair. But what else other than a keen sense of humour could explain his claim - made via his Zanu-PF allies - that the Opposition had cheated in Zimbabwe's election, hence the need for a recount in 16 constituencies? With a wit like that, the President could spend his overdue retirement wowing crowds at seaside and spa towns across Britain with lines like “How do you blow up the world's biggest balloon? With 100,000 per cent inflation” or “There is supposed to be an obesity crisis, isn't there? Someone had to have the courage to stop his people overeating.” Ken Dodd must be quaking at the competition.
There is, alas, no evidence that Mr Mugabe intends to abandon Harare for Harrogate. He is instead preparing for a second round in the presidential election where he will use every possible trick to have himself declared the victor. This is obvious to virtually all of Africa (and beyond) except one individual, Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's President and architect of a “quiet diplomacy” approach towards his neighbour.
Before meeting Gordon Brown this weekend, surreally opting to be in Hertfordshire at an hour when the southern half of his continent is in meltdown, Mr Mbeki said that the present situation in Zimbabwe is “manageable” and this is “not the time to interfere”.
It is difficult to decide which of those two statements is the more fantastic. If today's circumstances in Zimbabwe - in which an election result has been shamelessly held back until the incumbent figures out what the numbers released should be, real GDP has shrunk by half since 2000, production of maize has fallen by 90 per cent from then, inducing starvation, and unemployment is at an effective rate of 80 per cent - are manageable, one struggles to divine what might be the kind of conditions that Mr Mbeki would deem “not very manageable”. And if this is “not the time to interfere”, precisely what scale of political malpractice and economic anarchy would prompt him to back “limited intervention”? In his own way, Mr Mbeki could rival Mr Mugabe when it comes to Tommy Cooper territory.
The South African President has, unfortunately, form on this question. When Mr Mugabe swiped the last presidential contest in 2002, Mr Mbeki said his win was valid. In advance of the 2005 parliamentary poll in Zimbabwe, marked by massive intimidation and a media muzzling of the Movement for Democratic Change, Mr Mbeki announced that “I have no reason to think that anything will happen... that anybody in Zimbabwe will act in a way that will militate against the elections being free and fair.” Despite the fact that the ballot conducted was more rigged than a 150ft clipper ship, Mr Mbeki's chosen observers published an account in which they “congratulated the people of Zimbabwe for holding a peaceful, credible and well-managed election which reflects the will of the people”. Not long afterwards, Mr Mbeki used a television interview to blame “divisions within the MDC” as the main reason why he had, sadly, been unable to broker a settlement.
This is not “quiet diplomacy”, it is naked appeasement. It also makes the South African President the second-most responsible man for the catastrophe that is modern Zimbabwe.
The only reason why Mr Mugabe did not declare himself re-elected instantly is because election monitors from South Africa who were independent of Mr Mbeki insisted that the results be posted locally. This enabled a reasonably accurate assessment to be made of the numbers which would be difficult for the Zimbabwean Election Commission to overturn. This information should have been sufficient for Mr Mbeki to have stated that, at a minimum, Morgan Tsvangirai had outscored Mr Mugabe in the initial election and that more external observers should be in a position to scrutinise the final run-off closely. If he had done this a week ago, Mr Mugabe may well already have been heading out of his office.
Britain has been exercising its own version of “quiet diplomacy” on Mr Mbeki. Mr Brown seems to have stuck with this softly, softly strategy. The theory is that if we keep the volume down in public and persuade in private, Mr Mbeki in turn will convince Comrade Bob to be less beastly to his opponents and his population and take off for a villa somewhere. Yet this low-key approach has yielded almost nothing, and probably never will.
This is the moment to be ready to adopt the only course of action that might humiliate Mr Mbeki into finally taking decisive measures. Britain should overtly open a direct dialogue about Zimbabwe with Jacob Zuma, the South African President's deputy, the man who recently defeated him for control over the ANC and hence his heir apparent. Mr Zuma is not the most appealing of men, with accusations of corruption as well as sexual impropriety surrounding him, but on the Zimbabwe matter he is a comparative pragmatist and does not seem to believe that Mr Mugabe is owed any favours for his stance in the 1970s.
Mr Zuma would relish the chance to take centre stage and emerge as Zimbabwe's saviour and a regional statesman, 12 months before he prepares to assume the presidency. That this would profoundly embarrass Mr Mbeki, whom he loathes, would be an added bonus. It would also allow him to rebuild personal links with his own business community which has been desperately lobbying for something to be done about the economic damage being done to South Africa by Zimbabwe's collapse.
Zimbabwe and Africa cannot afford Mr Mugabe to be in office a year hence. If he is, then the exodus of people, perhaps two million more, will reduce what little is left of the country to total destitution. The task of salvaging its economy would be all but impossible. Zimbabwe's very last hope depends upon a transfer of power in the next few weeks. The idea that the MDC has stolen the parliamentary election might be side-splittingly funny. The notion of Mr Mugabe carrying on, by contrast, is no joke.
Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University
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C McCormick, Durban, South Africa,
Your comments as I quote:"And while you are at it, keep your aid and other misplaced generosities and let Zimbabwe be completely independant." would, if we heeded your opinion, result in even more deaths
May I point out you assume the view of a whole neighbouring country upon your shoulders Is that really what you or they (priority) want? Are you really agreeing with the views of your leader Mbeki? Whatever your views against 'Colonialism' or aid given by the West do you honestly believe we have evil in mind when trying to save not just Zimbabweans but many other Africans from starvation? We don't judge or ask anything in return - all we do is help our fellow human beings. Would you rather we didn't help out and more people died? In which case, fold up your pride and think of others than yourself - you might not need help; unfortunately there are plenty of people who do - be thankful there are people who do care - NO CONDITIONS ATTACHED
LT, Warminster, UK
As we all know, Mugabe is feited amongst many of the locals in SA largely because of his success in giving two fingers to anyone who has 'colonial' sympathies. The real reason why the support you would expect from South Africa against the outrages that have been committed by Mugabe is not forthcoming is due to the view amongst high profile members of the ANC that Morgan Tsvangirai is not up to the job. I was interested to hear a comment from a prominent black businessman in SA that he was appalled by the way Tsvangirai presented himself after he was beaten up by Mugabe's cronies, prior to the election. He believed that it was degrading for anyone in 'high position' to be photographed half naked (no consideration was given to the fact that Tsvangirai was photographed bloodied with his shirt ripped off after having been taken care of by Mugabe's team).
Africa's problems need to be sorted out by Africans, in their own way. I suspect that Mugabe will get the come uppance he deserves.
Anthony, London,
I rather suspect that the joke is on us all. Why don t we get any facts about Mugabe s disastrous reign instead of a mass of unsubstantiated allegations. I get the sneaking feeling that the expulsion of the BBC was a convenience which avoided the awkward business of the correlation of visual with verbal reports. In any event, why should the successor be presumed to be any better?
Henry Percy, London, UK
Only the heir to the kingdom of fools will think that Robert Magabue will go quietly into the night.
If he is given support from neighbouring countries in the form silence or soft words, he will move to total dictatorship.
His record to date is dripping with the blood of his allies and closest supporters.
Edgar Tekere aids another good point in that Magabue fears ending up like Charles Taylor.
cheers peter
peter faux, burrum heads, australia , queensland
Zanu-PF had decided what the result was going to be. Now that the result was other than that which they had organised, they have demanded a recount. Doh !
C Byrne, Pinner, UK
Mugabe should be charged by The United Nations with the rape of a country, the money he stole tracked and returned to rebuild the infrastructure of the country, and then held accountable for the genocide he committed. He does not warrant a safe exit from the country he destroyed.
RC, Roswell, USA
I really hope we do not become involved - in any way apart from humanitarian aid. Democracy seems to be skin deep in Africa and those involved have their own agenda. Mugabe seems to be only a part of Zanu PF who seem to have undiminished power. Let the Africans sort out heir own problems.
Dewi, Bristol, UK
Mr McCormick, for an example of African civil war look at Congo, would you really want something similar in Zimbabwe? The genocide in Rwanda taught the world to get involved before the violence starts, don't criticise Britain when South Africa does nothing.
Patrick Henderson, Coventry,
Whilst Bob kills his own kith and kin, Mbeki thinks its all right, it is manageable! This is the sort of blurred vision that resulted in his ouster as the ANC president! I am sure he must have told his comrades that the situation was manageable when all indications were that Zuma was the popular choice for the people! I am sure that is what he calls manageable situations - those that are contrary to the belief and assessment of the majority! Think of the AIDS issue! This man has a truly twisted mind and an unusual ability of assessing situations! Something that comes with age, perhaps?
Mamabolo, Harare, Zimbabwe
Mugabe and Co fear all the power and privilages will be gone, a wholesale cleanout of Police and Army etc , they cannot contimplate this happening. Jim, Ireland
jim, donegal, ireland
Dennis hit it spot on! Nothing more to say.
lionel, NY,
I'm not sure why the British think that they have any right to comment or criticise African politics. When Britain exited Rhodesia, they eventually, after years of war and economic sanctions, forced a black government into Zimbabwe, in the form of Mugabe, who by his own admission, would rather have achieved his victory by the barrel, not the ballot.
Britain gave up its right to have any say or influence in the continent when they pulled out and left Africa to its independant leaders. Africa is not an extension of Europe, and never will be. It is up to ZImbabwe to sort themselves out - African democracy is "one man - one vote - one time". In order to get Mugabe out they will have to resort to revolution, and as if previous elections did not give them enough proof, this latest charade surely does. So back off the world - let them sort it out amongst themselves.
And while you are at it, keep you aid and other misplaced generosities and let Zimbabwe be completely independant.
C McCormick, Durban, South Africa
Christopher H, Ian Smith is/was a) dead b) not exactly a visionary.
Even Bob could do more good for Zimababwe than a short-sighted dead Nazi
Rory, London,
Mbeki will always support his black brother Bob who fought against the colonialist! His reasoning about HIV and Aids is downright fantasy. Only Brown and Blair who would hobnob with this man. If Zuma takes over, Mbeki has put enough rands in an overseas bank to take of him the rest of his life.
The victims of their white man hatred has always been the poor blacks who are in worse states then they were in a white man rule. The black liberals will reason out saying that Mugabe may be a tyrant but at least he is their black tyrant!
peter, LONDON,
The UK and the USA are just as guilty as Mbeki by propping up Mugabe with millions in aid that Zimbabwians believe comes from ZANU-PF!!
Stop the aid and the country will rise up against him.
In the days of Rhodesia, whites grew the food that , together with outstanding health-care, allowed the black population to have one of the highest populations growths in the world.
Ironically, the black population of Zimbabwe is still fed by white farmers but now from other parts of the world!!
So much for "freedom" and "independance"!!
We live in a world of goody-two-shoes political correctness, lead by snivelling cowards and a largely illiterate, left-wing mass media.
What is happening in Southern Africa is a microcism of what awaits the UK and the USA.
Dennis, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Time to humiliate Mbeki then! Rather that than ignore the humitarian disaster that is the lot of the people of Zimbabwe!
K Mussellwhite, Notts,
@ Jacob Mkondo: Agreed and well put - hobbits yearning for the shires. Can I borrow it?
@ Sally Anderson Thank you for you calming words and insightful thoughts.
My own thoughts are that in sport and politics, prejudging the outcome is called cheating. An analysis of whether or not the referees are doing their jobs can't be tied up with our desire to win, or for that matter with discussions over how the team was chosen. It doesn't behove us to speak like this.
Sally is right. It is not President Mbeki's place to call the result. That would be presumptuous and it is silly to suggest he should. Imagine if Tony Blair had launched into a discussion of the issues in Florida while the court's were sitting.
Hobbits yearning for the shires. I love it.
Jo, Olney, UK
Sir V J NIAPAUL, the Nobel prize winner 2001 for Literature , stated on radio 4, 26/09/07 quote" the failure of Africans were their interlectual disabilities" unquote, if anyone had the right to say that it would be him.
E PRYOR, Gravesend, UK
Last year, the SADC countries held a meeting hosted by the AU. Their joint statement was, indeed, that they backed Robert Mugabe but this does not mean that pressure has not been applied to Mugabe's regime to host a fair election.
Lambasting Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy' before it has been given a chance to prove itself is futile. At least wait until the election results have been made public. It is important to African people to show a united front, especially to western countries like Britain and understandably so. There is a lot going on behind the scenes in Southern Africa that we are not privy to.
Furthermore, the suggestion that Britain speak to Jacob Zuma about Zimbabwe is an uninformed one. The idea of a Zulu and the British having any influence on Zanu-PF's or the Zimbabwean people's mindset is laughable. If Jacob Zuma's tribal heritage isn't significant to you, Mr. Hames, then I suggest you do a little research.
Warwick, Seville, Spain
Reagan and Thacher pushed the whites to relinquish power to the blacks after years of boycott, where is USA and GB now? You do not hear more then some lame protests, it is their fault that millions are starving and that Mugabe is a dictator.
gabriel, dallas, usa
The international community should continue putting pressure to have the Zimbabwean election results published.The majority of us Zimbabweans in the diaspora who were not allowed to vote,feel like 'HOBBITS who long for the SHIRES'.As we await a new dawn and era in our native country
Jacob Mkondo, London, U.K.
Spot on Phillip Florida...I spent many years in SA and a small Kleptocray has benefited and live in massive houses driving all the latest cars and secure all the best BBBEE deals.(Broad based black economic empowerment)
The poor black man on the street is no better of if not worse, but hey at least he has a black government and not a white, surely thats sufficient!
Mbeki is a racist thats a fact, he is also deluded about Hiv and Aids and his judgement on Zimbabwe is clouded by his hatred of whites and his obsession with the African Renaissance(what!) and being regarded as an intellectual(what!) If it wasnt so sad it would be funny.
paul anthony, reading, uk
Perhaps Mbeki had a look at the stunningly successful removal of Saddam Hussein and took his cue from that.
Bruce Robertson, Brighton, UK
I have long said that the real criminals in this (aside from Mugabe) are all those African leaders (most of them) who have either done nothing when they could have or as in SA's case supported him. When Mugabe finally goes the amount of funds needed to refloat Zimbabwe will be enormous. I have no doubt Britain will want to help the people of Zimabwe... but if we do then the money we give should be taken directly from what whta we currently give to those African nations who could have done nothing but have stood idly by. SA could have brought an end to this quickly, in fact they didn't have the guts within themselves to criticise a fellow African leader seeing it as some kind of break in the brotherhood... the result millions of africans have died or been impoverished, a country has been ruined..... these supposed leaders have preferred to shy away from citicism.. supposedly happy in the knowledge of the huge human cost. SA you ought to be ashamed... cowards.
abharrisson, london,
By recount he means rigging. It will come as no surprise to me when Mugabe is found to be the real winner with just over the required persentage to make it look like poor counting of the original votes.
Ron, Milton Keynes, Bucks
In 2002 and 2005 the militias, war veterans and Mugabe enforcers made sure the vote went a certain way. In no "election" since Mugabe came to power in 1980 has there been any chance that people would be talking of a presidential run-off.
It is small concessions, gradually conceeded to Mbeki, like the posting of results outside ballot stations, the absence of troops inside the polling stations and both MDC and ZANU staff being allowed to monitor the vote which have led to Tvangarai coming within striking point of the presidency. If Mbeki had publicly laid into Mugabe in 2002 or 2005, Mugabe would have simply ignored him, no concessions would have been granted in 2008, and Mugabe would now be "re-elected" with 98% of the vote.
Chris, Leeds,
Churchill would have implemented the SAS days ago.
Mugabe would have been behind iron bars, awaiting trial charged with treason.
Zimbabwens know how to count into the millions. They do it every time the buy a loaf of bread.
No reason for the outfall of this election to be recounted.
Gerald B., Aarhus, Denmark
Sadly Mr Mbeki 's loyalties are greater than reality. I understand his rectance to turn his back on a "comrade" but what is the alternative. It is costing S Africa millions to keep Bob afloat. Time for a reality check and a fair appraisel of the situation. Will Mbeki rise to the occasion or be doomed to be a tyrants bestman?
George Townsend, Elk Grove, CA USA
Why do people think that Mbeki, Zuma or the ANC are any different from Mugabe. They are all cut from the same cloth;
genocidal, racist terrorists.
Would the ANC be any less reticent than Mugabe to hand over power to the opposition in the unlikely event the "masses" vote them out as a desperate response to an inevitable Zimbabwe-style meltdown.
Inevitable because "transformation" must entail a wholesale transfer of economic assets to selected black recipients(symbolizing the majority) in order to ameliorate continuing black disaffection at White and Indian success despite their dwindling numbers at the hands of the ongoing racial genocide disguised as "High Crime".
Imagine a Mugabe replay of the white led opposition defeating the ANC at the polls. The toy-toying, the "mobilization of the masses", the necklacing, the looting and riots will ensure that power stays in the hands of the black cleptocracy.
Philip Christodoulou, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA
What is truly surreal about the Zimbabwe situation is that we, including the UK Press, persist in referring to Mugabe as if he is an anomaly, and the rest of Africa is in fine shape.
Mugabe survives with the support of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa because he is their "front line". As long as Mugabe survives, he attracts all the attention, and the rest of Africa's bosses contrive to look almost honest in contrast.
Mugabe will always have the support of Africa's bosses, because if Mugabe goes, the attention of he world will turn to them
We don't have a corrupt President, or a corrupt Party, or even a corrupt country. We have, in Africa, a corrupt continent.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
You still don't get it. Mugabe is giving notice to Tsvangirai that, if he does not negotiate a safe exit for ZANU-PF leadership and the military, then there will be no transfer of power and there will be bloodshed. The "recount" of the results is a stalling tactic to allow this negotiation. Mbeki understands this and is trying to get the West to stop fuelling Tsvangirai's delusions of grandeur so the negotiation can happen. Mbeki negotiated the terms that got the counts posted at polling stations. Let him finish the job (your suggestions that Zuma would be a better bet is the real joke - he is a spectre hanging over South Africa's future).
We Zimbabweans need peace and restoration, not point-scoring and retribution and the bloodshed that would go with it.
By the way, retribution as so-called "justice" is a British idea. The African idea of justice is restoration. We just want to put our country back together again. We can forgive Mugabe and ZANU-PF, just as we forgave Smith
Sally Anderson, Herts,
Someone should ask Mr Mbeki how South Africa is going to cope with 3-4 million refugees flooding into his country from Zimbabwe
if Robert Mugabe steals the election again. He says the situation is manageable therefore he will need absolutely no aid whatsoever from the West in coping with the refugees.
Stephen, St. Ives, England
Ian Smith, come home, all is forgiven.
Christopher H, Canberra, Australia
Comrade Bob is an old joke, and a bad one. Most of the people of Zimbabwe would agree that it's time for the joke to be on Bob.
Rick Friedl, Edwards, USA/California