Tim Hames
The man, the films, those blondes. Free DVD collection starting this Sunday
Many people have travelled to the United States in search of opportunity.Gordon Brown will be there this week looking for a respite from domestic difficulties. Relaxation might not customarily involve a series of meetings and speeches in New York, Washington and Boston, but for the Prime Minister they will be the equivalent of lazing on a sunlounger. If he read the papers yesterday he may decide not to come back.
For rarely has the news and the commentary been so miserable for him. Labour MPs are up in arms over issues as varied as the abolition of the 10p tax rate, post office closures, the handling of the embryology Bill, the proposed 42-day's detention without charge, and whether their leader should boycott either the opening or the closing of the Olympics. They have been spooked by opinion polls that have turned extremely nasty.
Senior ministers are said to be at odds, with rumours of Jack Straw and Ed Balls squaring up over who is responsible for youth crime (not an example to set to youngsters). One centre-left columnist laments a “lack of a clearly defined and coherently articulated direction”. Another concludes that it is already over for Mr Brown, and thus David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, should prepare to succeed him before the election. Charles Clarke is alleged to be ready to collect signatures to force a leadership ballot if the local election results are as dire as feared, and will put himself forward as a “stalking horse” (“stalking hippo”, surely) candidate if needed. A fatalistic mood has descended on the Labour Party. At this rate Mr Brown is destined to turn up at Heathrow airport tomorrow and find himself diverted to Terminal 5.
Amid this collective frenzy, there is a lack of analysis about why the Government is in trouble and what can be done about it.
A good place to start is the pattern of the opinion polls. Between mid-November (when “discgate” and myriad other woes compounded the saga of the aborted early election) and mid-March of this year the trend was towards a steady political recovery for Labour. It varied across the main pollsters, with Populus showing a cut in the Tory advantage from eight points to three points, ICM from six points to three points and YouGov from 11 points to seven points, but the direction was the same and the evidence indicated that the Government was slogging itself back into electoral contention.
Since the week of the Budget, however, all of that has been reversed. There is no reason to believe that any of the individual measures announced by Alistair Darling were the trigger for this. In truth, and take this test yourself, who can remember, say, five initiatives that the Chancellor revealed on March 12 (“er, tax up on wine, something about gas-guzzling cars, winter fuel allowance, now I'm struggling.”)? Mr Darling's misfortune, though, was that his set-piece event was the catalyst for the “r” word (recession) forcing itself on to the front pages, where it has stayed ever since. An abstract credit crunch based on the American mortgage market has entered our midst - at a time of rising prices for many of the basics in life.
This is the beginning, the middle and the end of the dilemma which faces Downing Street.
Consider one question asked by Populus for The Times every so often. It is a long question, but also fundamental. It reads: “Thinking about all the things that may affect the economy - such as changes in salaries and wages, the level of interest rates and tax, the rate of inflation and unemployment and the strength of the pound - how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year a) for the country as a whole and b) for you and your family?”
At the time of the 2005 election campaign, voters were positive about the prospects for the nation as a whole by a whopping 58 points and by 56 points for themselves. Those numbers make one wonder what Labour's majority would have been without the Iraq war. In September, when the first hints of distress arrived via the Northern Rock affair, electors were still upbeat about Britain by eight points and themselves by 27 points. In last week's Populus survey the public had become pessimists about the country's economic outlook by a sharp 20 points, and evenly divided about their own chances.
Such a change could not take place without the Government taking a proportion of the blame, and hence a serious hit in its opinion poll standing. It would be a bizarre citizen who mused: “The price of milk and cheese is going through the roof, I put it down to David Cameron”, or who thought: “I'm worried that I might lose my job, if only Nick Clegg had been more sexually reticent.”
And, indeed, in every newspaper vox pop this weekend that asked people what might influence their vote, the response was invariably one voicing economic anxieties. Nobody was threatening to abandon the Labour Party because of the handling of the embryology legislation or 42-day's detention without trial or the Beijing Olympics.
This administration will live or die on whether it is perceived to have coped with the current financial slowdown more competently than its opponents would have done. The sole opinion poll question worth paying attention to over the next two years is the aforementioned one about the economy that Populus has created. Voting intention will track it, not vice versa. So it is perhaps appropriate that the Prime Minister will soon be in America. It is, after all, the home of that telling phrase, “It's the economy, stupid.”

Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University
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Where is Alan Milburn, away on some non-executive directorship? It seems like only yesterday he could barely open his mouth without using the phrase "Boom and bust" to ridicule the Tories? Or has he wooed one too many voters?
Why are the whole backbench so quiet now? And it's not so much Oh Darling, as oh dear! I feel a summer of discontent coming. Gordon's praying it's a hot one with loads of sporting victories. Alas Ferrari's resurgent, Rugger/football/cricket and us are down the toilet. Gordon needs to win a war to stay in. Ah. Um. So the only chance he has is to put out a load of good storylines on Eastenders to keep the girls happy.
I said to a friend recently that Gordon would sacrifice the future of the country to keep the housing market going until the election, but it seems the future of the country is insufficient.
Mark De Mann, London,
Ezra and SK, Brown and co may be showing 1 million unemployed, but there are 3million plus on incapacity benefit. Why, because jobseekers allowance goes after 6 months, er am I thick or have we realy got over 3 million young people unfit for work. I dont think so. Like everything else this lot have handled they hide the truth behind figures that are clutched from thin air.
Lets face it if Labour thought that only 500000 would be affected by the 10% tax rate going, they really are totally out of touch when the true figure is around 5 million!!
brenda norwood, York,
May one suggest to Brown that he should go and talk to Mugabe and find out how to hold on to power. It would be the only way that he will survive an election. More power to the SNP if they can oust him from his Scottish constituency!
M. Cawdery, Portadown, Co. UK, EU.
@Sk, East Sussex
"In the late 1980s inflation was 10% and interest rates reached 15%..." Blah, blah, blah
How long are you people going to delve into history like this? You are comparing apples with bananas.
Brown blew it. Period
PD, Oxford,
Ezra & SK, What colour's the sky in your world?
I don't know anyone who voted Labour last time, I dont know anyone who supports either this or the previous govt. Comparing Brown and Major is like deciding which leg to be shot in.
Basically our political system is unfit for purpose and needs changing. Trouble is it can only be changed from within and that means by the people with the most to gain in leaving it as is.
Changing unemployed to incapacity benefit doesn't help anyone but the figures but some mug will believe them.
Notice you didn't factor in council tax, income tax and NI are up and council tax is up a massive amount and this is tax on already taxed income.
lastly Brown is bereft of any identifiable talent or skill the man has achieved nothing good.
Bob, Bellfield,
Ezra has a point. It only takes a quick 'Google' to discover that the Tories produced 3 million unemployed, today the figure is 1 million with a larger population and the minimum wage. In the late 1980s inflation was 10% and interest rates reached 15%, with an average around 12%. John Major's election broadcast in 1992 stated 'so under Labour you're taxed more, you pay more and your mortgage costs more...'. in 1992 the basic rate of tax was 25%, today it is 20% and only marginally more if you include the rise in NI. I also remember my mother waiting over 2 years for a hip replacement, shoddy and understaffed hospitals and putting buckets on the stairs to catch the rain + outside toilets in many schools. As we have had the most rapidly expanding economy in the West over the last 10 years, the latter could not have been rectified without good economic management.
sk, East Sussex,
Many journalists should accept some responsibility for bolstering false Browns reputation. It will be interesting how the Mirror's Kevin Maguire will eventually justify his attacking of Brown, the man he has blindly supported for the last 10 years as Brown objectively becomes a liability both to party and country.
Demaris, Dudley,
Billions (maybe trillions) of pounds squandered on projects run by criminals and incompetents. Pilfered private sector pension funds, price of living rocketing, taxed on X, Y and Z.
Country run by MP's with no or little morals, hiding behind a PR Machine, finances in meltdown, UK Human and animal disease after disease.
No wonder Robert Mugabe (and the rest of Southern Africa) just laugh at us, we can barely deal with our own problems, we should not be telling other countries how to run their affairs,when we are such a mess.
Mark, Yorkshire,
You have visited this before Mr Hames,even before the "economic slowdown" drove another nail in this man's coffin.
May I refer you to the short list provided by Mr B Phillps ( I could lengthen it by request )
Change horses, or should I say Hippos are at home in the water now above Brown's head.
robert everitt, wolverhampton,
The big concern I, and so many voters, have is that there is even less confidence in any new potential govt's abilities to handle the economy. The LibDems offer radical ideas in the knowledge they won't get into power and the Tories are mostly trading off ill-feeling towards the GOP without offering any credible alternatives. Cameron doesn't understand economics (although Osborne is bright) and the Tories would collapse and divide within 2 years of power.This will be highlighted in the upcoming general election when there may be a (slight) disgruntled shift back to the comparatively competent NuLab but, whatever the result, it's going to be a miserable, divided nation.
For any of you reading overseas, the majority of the population do not want to string up Brown etc.. The real mood towards the economy is just a bit grey and downbeat, which is thoroughly British of us. It's just that ,phew, for a minute there (1997-2002) we lost ourselves.
Ezra Mayo, Oxford,
It's illuminating how Westminster changes from being a redundant debating chamber to frenzied chatter, hard threats, elbow pushing, drama, and even punch-ups, the moment the governing party starts to wobble. What a bunch! We should invite the UN to come in and help us get back democracy.
john problem, winchester, uk
Not sure about Miliband, he looks like the special needs kid
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
BROWNS' great problem is , denied the premiership, he would keep on going about TELLING everyone how good he was at finance. He left behind a poisoned chalice, compounded by an ongoing world food shortage [ there were many warnings from 30 years ago], and tragedies in Zimbebwe and Darfur that he simply huffed and puffed about. As a PM he is found to be wanting, as are all politicians that refuse to address overpopulation!
David Vinter, Louth, Lincs., UK.
Pension Funds plundered
Gold sold at rock bottom prices
Every major project overspent by billions
Econonmy propted up by allowing banks to issue credit cards like confetti
NHS given billions with no appreciable benefit
Taxes increased on the poorest (10%)
Need I go on?
Could not run a welk stall
B Phillips, Ashford, Uk
Brown should claim asylum whilst in the US. He can cite the certainty of torture every Wednesday to back it up.
michael murphy, brightlingsea, england
Financial Meltdown
He's managing the financial meldown nicely.
joe, Berwickshire, Scotland
Not sure about this Tim. The prevailing "wisdom" used to be that any downturn would benefit Brown s he would be seen as the best guy to get the Country through troubled times. Thats not proving to be the case as more and moe people seem to be coming tio the conclusion that he has glaring deficiencies which mean he is not up to the job of being PM. I personally think its that which is proving so damaging and which is likely to be long lasting. He appears to have the opposite of the "Midas touch".
Peter Buss, Canterbury, UK