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From The Times

April 28, 2008

How to stop Labour's self-destruction

The febrile atmosphere at Westminster takes no account of the facts. Things are not so bad

Tim Hames

The largest mass extinction in the Earth's history occurred about 251.4 million years ago. It wiped out up to 96 per cent of all marine species and 70 per cent of those on land. There is still an argument as to the exact cause: some say vast volcanic activity was the trigger; others that a series of earthquakes led methane to escape through the ocean floor; another camp contends it was an impact event such as an asteroid strike, while a few insist that a gamma-ray burst from a supernova was the culprit.

In any case, the planet became much hotter and let off poisonous vapours. This has become known as the “Great Dying”.

There appears to be a sizeable number of Labour MPs who have convinced themselves that something similar is about to visit their own fraternity.

The atmosphere in this quarter of Westminster is unlike anything witnessed since Jonestown. Ken Livingstone's defeat in London is deemed a racing certainty (despite many polling companies believing his race with Boris Johnson is neck and neck) and a loss of 200 council seats or more is assumed (even though most of the places being contested this year are in favourable territory for Labour). The opinion polls that are noticed are from YouGov, which put the Conservatives 14 or 16 or 18 points in front; while the less fantastic figures from all the other pollsters are considered inconsequential. MPs who once loathed Lord Levy will treat him as an oracle on the subject of the Prime Minister after his revelations at the weekend. The Parliamentary Labour Party today thus resembles Death Wish without Charles Bronson.

This is illustrated by the extraordinary panic about the 10p tax band saga. The Government has been forced to write the outlines of the next Pre-Budget Report months ahead because voters and backbenchers were spooked by stories of the effect of income tax alterations. Yet, in truth, absolutely no one knows precisely how many people will be hurt; and nor does the public itself, because most people are paid at the end of the month. Only then will they be able to assess their finances.

At this moment a large part of the population will discover that they are actually better off because the basic tax rate has been cut from 22 pence to 20 pence. Yet the mood is so surreally bad that even if Red Ken squeezes home for a third term and the slaughter of Labour councillors is smaller than expected, the PLP, having got itself ready for a meltdown, may proceed with it regardless. Gordon Brown must expect this. He also needs to have a strategy for the weeks that follow the local election.

The first part of this has to be a determination to focus on what is important. The fear of a sharp economic contraction driven by the credit crunch is at the core of everything. The Treasury, in tandem with the Bank of England, has more resources that it can use to stabilise the banking system, so the Prime Minister must lean on the Governor of the Bank of England to abandon his sado-conservatism towards the crisis. Interestingly, polls show that this is the issue where Mr Brown retains voter confidence.

Secondly, ministers need to think again about their attempt to increase from 28 to 42 days the time during which terrorist suspects can be held without charge. As matters stand, this measure is en route to demolition in the House of Commons, courtesy of Labour dissidents. Ironically, though, this is manifestly not an initiative on which the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary are at odds with Labour's core supporters. Far from it. Polls confirm that the typical Labour voter (and others besides) would be happy for anybody with a beard who looks dodgy to be locked up for eternity, to be on the safe side.

Yet many Labour MPs don't see it this way. Jacqui Smith is trying to win them over by emphasising how many terrorist plots, and hence plotters, are out there. The trouble with this tactic is that it implies that the full 42-day provision may be employed regularly. The Labour MPs whom she aspires to convert want to be reassured that six weeks' confinement will happen very rarely. This is the tack she should be taking, emphasising that merely a handful of suspects could be placed behind bars for more than 28 days in the course of a year, not dozens of them.

The final aspect involves making changes to avert future trouble. For this to be delivered, the Goverment must become more politically sophisticated than it has been.

This demands securing a third leg for the institutional stool. In his early months in No 10, Mr Brown tried to run his administration through a small cabal of former Treasury allies. This proved impossible. He has since improved his lot substantially by hiring Jeremy Heywood to oversee the liaison between Mr Brown's office and the rest of Whitehall, and Stephen Carter to impose discipline on the Prime Minister's agenda and schedule.

Those who are involved with these changes report privately that they have worked well, but what is lacking is the explicitly political fixer - the person who instinctively understands what will calm or upset Labour MPs and can peer ahead, spot the controversies that might transpire, and damp them down.

Such a soul might also be the one to craft a quip for Prime Minister's Questions or a slick line to throw at the media. It is the missing link in the current Downing Street machine. If I were Mr Brown, I would invite Michael White, of The Guardian, in for a whisky shortly.

That Labour MPs need this kind of treatment is undeniable. But they too have to become more sturdy creatures. The catastrophic “Great Dying” retarded development on Earth because it held back an advanced array of mammal-like reptiles to make room, in time, for their domination by the dinosaurs. Right now, “forward to the dinosaurs” is a good summing-up of the Labour Party mentality.

Shame Tony left.

The bottom line is that only a selfish slab or a fool votes Conservative. Their days have finished. Labour is all we have left.

I hear that Gordon is playing at Glastonbury this year, so he can`t be that bad.

Stephen Bluestone, London, UK

the sooner that brown & co are shown the exit the better for all of us , what a sad mob they are

martin taylor , hoddesdon, england

Given the alternative, me for one. Labour are like many governments in their third term - rather tired and short of ideas. But on the whole, much of what they have done has been positive. A pity their caution led them to hold back and worse that foreign policy led them to follow Bush uncritically

Mike Homfray, Liverpool,

Good assessment Tim, and you're right about Mike White; his experience and good humour puts the bandwagon baying commentariat appealing to the lowest denominator to shame. Mike (gentle) and Alastair (wicked) is what's needed, and what a devastatingly effective team they'd be. Just go for it.

Anni, Sheffield,

The 2007 budget was designed to target middle-class voters that had swung to Labour - salaries in the high teens to low thirty K would gain with the 2p cut in. Labour assumed the very rich would not vote for them anyway and that the very poor always would. Then they forgot to call the election!

John Wood, Hull, UK

I do not want to pay for any more makeover artists or spin doctors!
I see what we have got and no one will now change my mind!

Jim Golightly, Prudhoe, England

Surely this is making a molehill out of a mountain.

Viktorovich, Moscow, RF

This article is drivel. If you are willing to excuse Bottler for a deliberate strategy to make the poorest and most vulnerable in society fund a reduction in income tax for the rich then so be it. The voters will not forgive him for a cruel and cynical plot to backfoot the Tories.

paul turfery, Cork, Ireland

What a load of drivel this article is! We DO know how many people will be adversely affected by the abolition of the 10p rate. It is 5.2 million! I will be better off because I earn more than £19k a year. So what! I don't want to profit at the expense of the lower paid.

David Brammer, Shrewsbury, UK

Mr Hames, the poorest paid who aren't eligible to claim benefits, will suffer. What is it, that you cannot understand about this?

You seem to be suffering from Brown's Delusional Stupefaction. A rather nasty condition for which there is no cure for. Certainly none Dr White has in his bag...

Martin, Telford,

Every step taken towards the demise of Liebour is one step nearer for Independence for Scotland. Bring it on!

Robert Christie, Burntisland, Scotland

Brown has an analytical penetration far beyond Tony Blair?!

Brown is a XIX Dickensian philanthropist, who thinks that the best way to help the poor is with handouts! He should have helped them with jobs instead, good jobs. He should have provided training and an efficient market economy = low tax, low benefits, reformed public services. Blair knew all these. Brown blocked all these. Brown better than Blair?! Are you nuts?!

Laura Fox, Chichester, UK

Tory miss-rule is better than Labour rule...

Should know that

Phil, Preston,

"..tax increase on my NHS pension of £51 "-Wendy Poulson
Even if you had lost the whole10p tax band, and had NO income taxed at 22p on which to get a tax cut, and NO tax credits, your tax increase could be no more than about £5/week. You're either making up figures, or not telling the full story.

andrew, edinburgh, uk

We don't want to stop their destruction, in fact we are praying for it.
They've done untold damage to this country and sold us out to Europe, something we will never forgive. They've ridden roughshod over democracy and you want us to stop their destruction, well it can't some soon enough.

Samantha Jones, Bucks, England

Was it not Jack Straw who said that "with the best brains available to the government they could not foresee the impact of the 10p tax?" I think that's revelatory in itself as "The Great Extinction" is brought about by a collective and irreparable loss of IQ points and accompanying common sense.

David Amerland, Cheadle, UK, Cheshire

Garth Strong - because of what happened under the Tories.

Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.

I have to agree. Why stop it? We were robbed of the chance to vote them out towards the end of last year and the longer Labour are allowed to govern, the more likely it is we can have a new government at the next election. So bring it on and let them do their worst. I will not miss them at all.

Colin, Shaftesbury , UK

Labour party set to self destruct...and this is a bad thing how?

Peter, London,

It's fine if you're a well paid pundit. If your a bog standard person not on the state payroll, without a tax payer funded pension, with rising food and fuel bills, unable to get on the housing ladder - not so good Mr Hames - but do pass the port.....

Fatib, Dalston, UK

Clive Stringer:

So the answer to 11 years of failed socialism is...more socialism!
Yeah, that'll work.

Steve F, Lincoln, UK

The world as seen through red-tinted spectacles.

Bill Rispin, Hull,

Try looking at your own paper "Today being born into poverty in the UK can be a life sentence" by Gary Duncan. Do you seriously believe things are not so bad?

Take off your Labour "rose-tinted" spectacles and see what the rest of see, feel what the rest of us feel.

Richard K, Nottingham,

Labour MPs are moving toward self-destruction, you say?

Let them self-destruct.

Joe, Sheffield, UK

I have just been paid at the end of the month, state pension rise of £15, tax increase on my NHS pension of £51, a overall loss of about £36 a month. Just who is Mr Brown looking after, I'm not looking for any extra , just the means to maintain the reasonable standard of living I've worked for.

Wendy Poulson, Derby,

When Labours theme in 1997 was "Things can only get better" it was a message of hope for a veats number of voters fed up with the incumbent govt. The problem is the new govt were as bad if not worse than the last.

We desperately need some form of proper representation and accountability...

Bob, Bellfield,

Do we really want to stop nulabs self destruction?

Albert Hall, kettering,

Cue General election I think !!!!!

Ian Payne, WALSALL,

Why should anyone want to stop Labour's self-destruction.

Simon Marshland, Bath, UK

"Such a soul might also be the one to craft a quip for Prime Minister's Questions or a slick line to throw at the media."

Are you suggesting that the PM needs a spin doctor? Heaven forbid...

Richard, Oxford, UK

Hmmm....so, an ageing dinosaur will look better with Leopard spots? Or is it more about the deck chair arrangements for the passengers?

m collins, Leeds,

Presumably the low paid workers are incapable of working out their taxes?

I knew what the effect on me would be moments after I heard about the changes and entered them into excel.

Dominic, Manchester, England

There are all sorts of arguments for getting rid of Labour - but don't forget that if Labour is out, the Tories will be in. And those of us who remember the Tories previous efforts at governing this country are obliged to say to the anti-Labour mob, "be careful what you wish for, you might get it"

Al, Weybridge, UQ

Stephen Carter does need to impose discipline but on not PMs but on the people /organisations responsible for the AGENDA FOR CHANGE!!!most of these organisations particularly in HEALTH ignore local councillor/ MPs and community concerns,to the onlooker governance appears nonexistant Return democracy

Mary E Hoult , Leeds, Yorkshire

"If I were Mr Brown, I would invite Michael White, of The Guardian, in for a whisky shortly"

You're too modest, Mr Hames. This article suggests you'd be ideally qualified for the job yourself.

Gordon Alexander, Frome, UK

Unfortunately for Mr. Brown he has never shared one of Abraham Lincoln's dictates viz: "You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift"

Robert El-Cid, Hull., East Yorks.,

Clive Stringer is having a laugh if he thinks that socialism is the answer to anything.

Socialists in the UK and abroad have repeatedly proven themselves to be the most corrupt, least accountable and most ineffectual leaders.

Ade, Cadiz, Spain

Labour leaders have failed to listen to the voters and shamelessly used spin to push through their agenda. Their self righteous attitude has brought the country to where it is today. The sad thing is that Cameron and the Tories still haven’t managed to push forward meaningful policies to endear them to the public at large.

Hamad Lone, London, England

Think of all the positives over the last ten years and then the negatives. Vote Labour - never again.

Frederick, London, UK

Why should we keep a failing Prime Minister - never elected -who seems to need so many experts and spin doctors to prop him up. As for drafting of 'quips' - its the personality and delivery of quips that make them funny. With Gordon they will just sound (accurately) false.

Donna Walker, Effingham, Surrey

Look at the mess 20 years of right wing capitalist government has got us and the US into. The time is right for a large slice of socialism.

Clive Stringer, Eggesford, Britain

Tim, if it were only the 10p and 42 days; add the magic disappearance of a promised EU constitution referendum, issues on immigration, banking, negative equity, utilities, post offices, strikes, inflation on real cost of living (not RPI), MP's expenses, defence policy/spending...oh dear, oh dear....

Mike L, Chippenham, Wilts

"The person who instinctively understands what will calm or upset Labour MPs"

Should I read this as meaning that the rest of us don't count?

Pete, wolverhampton,

Having declared that "Things are not as bad as they seem", you then explain in some detail why they are.

jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA

"How to stop Labour's self-destruction"

Given what has happened to Britain under Labour.......why would any sane person want to stop
Labour's self-destruction?

Garth Strong, San Diego, USA

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Tim Hames

Tim Hames joined The Times in 1999 and is a columnist and Chief Leader Writer. He was previously a lecturer in American and British Politics at Oxford University