The largest mass extinction in the Earth's history occurred about 251.4 million years ago. It wiped out up to 96 per cent of all marine species and 70 per cent of those on land. There is still an argument as to the exact cause: some say vast volcanic activity was the trigger; others that a series of earthquakes led methane to escape through the ocean floor; another camp contends it was an impact event such as an asteroid strike, while a few insist that a gamma-ray burst from a supernova was the culprit.

In any case, the planet became much hotter and let off poisonous vapours. This has become known as the “Great Dying”.

There appears to be a sizeable number of Labour MPs who have convinced themselves that something similar is about to visit their own fraternity.

The atmosphere in this quarter of Westminster is unlike anything witnessed since Jonestown. Ken Livingstone's defeat in London is deemed a racing certainty (despite many polling companies believing his race with Boris Johnson is neck and neck) and a loss of 200 council seats or more is assumed (even though most of the places being contested this year are in favourable territory for Labour). The opinion polls that are noticed are from YouGov, which put the Conservatives 14 or 16 or 18 points in front; while the less fantastic figures from all the other pollsters are considered inconsequential. MPs who once loathed Lord Levy will treat him as an oracle on the subject of the Prime Minister after his revelations at the weekend. The Parliamentary Labour Party today thus resembles Death Wish without Charles Bronson.

This is illustrated by the extraordinary panic about the 10p tax band saga. The Government has been forced to write the outlines of the next Pre-Budget Report months ahead because voters and backbenchers were spooked by stories of the effect of income tax alterations. Yet, in truth, absolutely no one knows precisely how many people will be hurt; and nor does the public itself, because most people are paid at the end of the month. Only then will they be able to assess their finances.

At this moment a large part of the population will discover that they are actually better off because the basic tax rate has been cut from 22 pence to 20 pence. Yet the mood is so surreally bad that even if Red Ken squeezes home for a third term and the slaughter of Labour councillors is smaller than expected, the PLP, having got itself ready for a meltdown, may proceed with it regardless. Gordon Brown must expect this. He also needs to have a strategy for the weeks that follow the local election.

The first part of this has to be a determination to focus on what is important. The fear of a sharp economic contraction driven by the credit crunch is at the core of everything. The Treasury, in tandem with the Bank of England, has more resources that it can use to stabilise the banking system, so the Prime Minister must lean on the Governor of the Bank of England to abandon his sado-conservatism towards the crisis. Interestingly, polls show that this is the issue where Mr Brown retains voter confidence.

Secondly, ministers need to think again about their attempt to increase from 28 to 42 days the time during which terrorist suspects can be held without charge. As matters stand, this measure is en route to demolition in the House of Commons, courtesy of Labour dissidents. Ironically, though, this is manifestly not an initiative on which the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary are at odds with Labour's core supporters. Far from it. Polls confirm that the typical Labour voter (and others besides) would be happy for anybody with a beard who looks dodgy to be locked up for eternity, to be on the safe side.

Yet many Labour MPs don't see it this way. Jacqui Smith is trying to win them over by emphasising how many terrorist plots, and hence plotters, are out there. The trouble with this tactic is that it implies that the full 42-day provision may be employed regularly. The Labour MPs whom she aspires to convert want to be reassured that six weeks' confinement will happen very rarely. This is the tack she should be taking, emphasising that merely a handful of suspects could be placed behind bars for more than 28 days in the course of a year, not dozens of them.

The final aspect involves making changes to avert future trouble. For this to be delivered, the Goverment must become more politically sophisticated than it has been.

This demands securing a third leg for the institutional stool. In his early months in No 10, Mr Brown tried to run his administration through a small cabal of former Treasury allies. This proved impossible. He has since improved his lot substantially by hiring Jeremy Heywood to oversee the liaison between Mr Brown's office and the rest of Whitehall, and Stephen Carter to impose discipline on the Prime Minister's agenda and schedule.

Those who are involved with these changes report privately that they have worked well, but what is lacking is the explicitly political fixer - the person who instinctively understands what will calm or upset Labour MPs and can peer ahead, spot the controversies that might transpire, and damp them down.

Such a soul might also be the one to craft a quip for Prime Minister's Questions or a slick line to throw at the media. It is the missing link in the current Downing Street machine. If I were Mr Brown, I would invite Michael White, of The Guardian, in for a whisky shortly.

That Labour MPs need this kind of treatment is undeniable. But they too have to become more sturdy creatures. The catastrophic “Great Dying” retarded development on Earth because it held back an advanced array of mammal-like reptiles to make room, in time, for their domination by the dinosaurs. Right now, “forward to the dinosaurs” is a good summing-up of the Labour Party mentality.

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