THANKSGIVING WEEK in the United States involves an official ceremony. Since 1947 the President has spared a “national turkey” and its mate from the oven and released them to some institution to live out their days together. So it was that George W. Bush pardoned “Marshmallow” and “Yam” and sent them off to Disneyland. Personally, I’d rather be basted.

Which is what the President must have felt like recently. His photocall with the large bird prompted imaginative newspaper headlines such as “spot the turkey” or “it’s the one on the right wearing the tie who is getting stuffed this time”. Mr Bush’s extremely rough 12 months since his re-election have been greeted with glee by those who habitually portray his America as one of primitive creationism at home and apocalypse elsewhere. This is somehow symbolised by the fact that Marshmallow and Yam acquired their names in a public ballot conducted on the White House website, with “Wattle” and “Snood” a close second, and “Democracy” and “Freedom” a pretty poor third.

It is not hard to see why Mr Bush’s many foes have spent most of this year crowing. His popularity has slumped and events have escaped him. His ambitious plan to reform social security never got going and his vision of a reordered world appears stuck in the sands of the Sunni triangle. Hurricane Katrina seemed to blow away his Administration’s reputation for efficiency as well as any chance of cutting back on a bloated budget deficit. Scandal has knocked at his door with the indictment of Lewis Libby.

The Republican Party is thus in a state of ideological schism. The Oval Office, it is widely assumed, will next be occupied by Senator Hillary Clinton, with Bill, surreally, installed as the first First Gentleman. It is not hard to look at the Bush White House and then conclude that the hamster is dead, even if the wheel might still be spinning.

Nevertheless, anybody who thinks that Mr Bush is locked into inevitable ignominy, with his party set to be crushed in the congressional elections next November, before the final revenge of the Clintons, may be disappointed. It is too soon to write him off and way too early to install Hillary as his replacement — even though this has undoubtedly been Mr Bush’s toughest year since he went to Washington and could prove to be the worst of his entire tenure.

For the President will enter 2006 with a number of underestimated advantages. This has been a robust year for the American economy despite a steady series of interest rate increases and an appreciation of the dollar. There is every indication that the economy will remain strong and even accelerate over the coming months. Wall Street has finally pulled itself back to where it was before September 11, 2001 and will slowly head towards where it rested before the dotcom boom went down faster than the Titanic. When Americans feel confident about their personal prosperity it does wonders for their perceptions of the President. The economy may revive the man supposed to be so stupid.

He may also be about to escape the Iraq imbroglio. The elections due to be held there next month will be fought by most of the mainstream Sunni political parties. Despite the sadistic nihilism of the so-called insurgency, it will be much more challenging for the terrorists to pretend to have popular support once it is a Government that has been chosen by the Iraqi people themselves that they are assailing. The car bombs will not, alas, be stopped overnight and it will take a while before American and British troops can be withdrawn completely. But peace with honour is not impossible and as troops return home the negative pressure on the Bush poll ratings will abate further.

A string of prominent defeats at home has obscured the President’s most significant victory. His choice for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John G. Roberts, could be in place for 30 years and with that he has the capacity to shape the most powerful judicial bench on the planet.

Mr Bush’s second nominee for the Supreme Court, Judge Samuel Alito, will prompt more opposition from the Democrats, but is still likely to be confirmed and he will have an enormous impact once there. If the eldest and most liberal member of the court, John Paul Stevens, were to die or retire soon, Mr Bush would have chance to make the Supreme Court his own in a manner not witnessed since Franklin Roosevelt.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has less reason to be cheerful. She is an overwhelming favourite to obtain the Democratic nomination for the White House. There is, nevertheless, one small obstacle to her becoming the President — the voters. Despite the collective media crush on her, Mrs Clinton remains a divisive, polarising and mistrusted figure. The last poll to ask Americans whether she should run for the top job produced a 52-42 result against.

By contrast, the public clearly favours bids by either of the Republican frontrunners — Senator John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. In hypothetical polling contests, both of these contenders defeat Mrs Clinton by a consistent margin. Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, who swears she is not a candidate, also looks as if she could prevent Mrs Clinton succeeding to the mantle tarnished by her husband.

This might, in short, be the moment to buy shares in Mr Bush again and quietly sell any purchased in Mrs Clinton. If there is a Texan version of what the Queen bemoaned in 1992 as her annus horribilis, he has had it. Despite this, he might enjoy the happy fate of Marshmallow and Yam at Disneyland. Mrs Clinton, by contrast, may be just another turkey.

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