There might, I think, be something wrong with any teenager who went through
his sixteenth year without committing some forbidden or foolish act. I
remember at that age, when I was at Charterhouse, sitting in the stalls of
the Farmcombe Cinema, smoking a large but cheap cigar, watching Humphrey
Bogart and Lauren Bacall. I was committing two school offences; I was
smoking and I was out of bounds. My motivation was to demonstrate to myself
that I was not the scholarly wimp I half suspected myself of being. I needed
to find a rule to break, if only to demonstrate my independence.
Cannabis is a more serious drug than tobacco, since it can disorientate one’s
brain, but I refuse to blame the adult David Cameron for anything he may
have smoked as a student. However, Mr Cameron does have a real problem, more
serious than Etonian gossip. The Conservative figures in the opinion polls
are not good enough. I largely rely on the YouGov poll, which uses an
internet methodology that eliminates the bias of person-to-person questions.
Yesterday’s Sunday Times has the latest and in it the
Conservatives are on 37 per cent, Labour 32, the Liberal Democrats 18 and
the others, who include nationalists, greens, the BNP and the United Kingdom
Independence Party, are on 13 per cent together.
Compared with the outcome of the last general election these are good figures
for the Conservatives, but they are nevertheless disappointing. The
Conservatives are still failing to break through the 40 per cent mark, which
they would need to win a general election. The figures would produce a 4 per
cent swing from Labour to the Conservatives, but that would probably leave
Labour as the largest party in terms of seats. The Conservatives might pick
up some 60 to 70 marginals, but they would be the second largest party in a
hung Parliament; a long way from power.
Normally, one might regard the last year’s improvement in the Tory position as
satisfactory. Under Mr Cameron the Conservatives have moved up from the
30-35 per cent zone to the 35-40 per cent zone, and are ahead of Labour.
But the present circumstances are abnormal, and exceptionally favourable to
the Conservatives. The Government is a shambles, the Iraq war is unpopular,
the Labour Party is split, the Prime Minister is waiting to retire, Gordon
Brown, though heir apparent, is not in charge, the police are in Downing
Street. Apart from the later years of the Major Government, which were
followed by a Labour landslide, there has been no situation quite so
discouraging.
In these circumstances the Conservatives could expect to have moved well into
the lead, as the Labour Party was for most of the 1990s. Indeed, they need
to have a substantial lead. If the Labour Party can survive its disastrous
situation, it may reasonably expect to recover when it has pulled itself
together under a new leader.
No one can be sure how the country will respond to Gordon Brown as Prime
Minister. It is possible that he will seem too Scottish, too grim and too
severe, but he is certainly not a negligible figure. He has greater
intellectual force than David Cameron or than Tony Blair. For the
Conservatives, the most disturbing YouGov figures are that 26 per cent of
voters regard Mr Cameron as a lightweight, while 21 per cent think the same
of Tony Blair. Only 9 per cent see Mr Brown in that way.
British political fashions tend to be influenced by American campaigns, partly
because of the alliance and partly because the British media find American
politics much more exciting than European. In 1962 the Macmillan Government
was swamped by the cult of the Kennedys, which was a cult of youth and
idealism, though President Kennedy himself was a pretty ironic idealist.
We can be almost sure about one thing that will affect the next general
election. President Bush will no longer be in the White House. He will
retire in January 2009; the most likely date for our election is May of that
year. By the time of the British election the new President will be moving
towards the end of his, or her, honeymoon period. Unless there has been a
strategic victory for the present American reinforcement in Iraq and the
situation in that country has improved, it is probable that the next
American President will be a Democrat. Only once since 1950 has the
incumbent party won a third term, and President Bush has already lost the
midterm elections for both Houses of Congress.
Senator Barack Obama has started his campaign in the Kennedy style. He speaks
of his ideals, of his desire to represent the “generation of change”. If his
campaign gains more momentum, that will have its own impact on British
politics. If the United States does elect another charismatic President,
modelled on Lincoln or Kennedy, we shall want one of our own. Charisma works
in Britain, too. Remember the rubbish many of us talked about Tony Blair in
1997?
This is a challenge and an opportunity for David Cameron. He is young, he is
an ironic idealist, he still has his hair. If he could lay claim to the same
underlying theme of change he could make the Conservative Party seem new and
radical.
At present, he seems to be overcautious, too anxious to avoid the mistakes
made by previous Conservative leaders. The British are entranced by
charismatic American Presidents; they even fell for Bill Clinton. I would
not be surprised if Barack Obama — if he survives the primaries — becomes
one of our favourites. Mr Cameron may then need some of the Obama gold dust
to get him above the magic 40 per cent in the polls. Perhaps the Tories can
become the party of our “generation of change”. It would not be a bad idea.
The Conservatives would have been way ahead in the polls had Ken Clarke been elected - the person the country in opinion polls wanted to take on both Blair and Gordon Brown. In Lance Price's autobiography of being a spin doctor in No 10 during the 2001 election, he wrote that TB's worst nightmare was Hague being replaced by Clarke. So what did the Tories do - give him Iain 'Quiet Man' Duncan Smith as opposition. The Tories get exactly what they deserve - failure.
Mad Max, Gloucester,
Cameron lightweight?
Yes, depressingly so.
Gordon Brown however is a man whose gravity is entirely negative. Yes, he is dour, yes, he takes himself very seriously, yes he worries about big things, yes he makes overly long speaches - er, big deal!
In terms of intellect and innovation he lacks the capacity of Cameron, he is utterly lacking in courage, his moral compass is such that well into his fifties he still harks on about his daddy and he still dissapears from public life whenever anything contraversial happens regarding a government of which he is the second most senior member.
Mr Browns pathos makes Mr Cameron seem, sad though this appears, to be a ray of hope
edward green, Upminster, England
Cameron's Conservatives were thrashed by the BNP in the recent by-election in Bedworth's Bede ward. This soft drugs 'scandal' has served to draw attention away from that poor showing for Cameron (and New Labour who only narrowly avoided defeat by the BNP).
John, London,
"This is no smoking gun ... " -- really! I usually find myself in agreement with WR-M but not on this matter. First of all, I've noticed no comment to the effect that he was damned lucky not to be expelled from Eton. (He certainly would have been had he attended my public school.} What chance of him being Conservative leader if that had happened? We know he won't deny taking drugs -- because he obviously did but why won't he admit to it. I've smoked cannabis twice in my life. There, I've admitted to it. I fall into the 'see what it's like' category. Don't you think Cameron would have done the same if that is all he'd done. Suppose he'd done it ten times, he can probably still get away with that but what about a hundred, a thousand, ten thousand times. He could hardly admit to that, could he?
Steven Roberts, Waltham Cross, England
You underestimate him Mr Rees-Mogg. He has already slayed Labour's electoral colossus without whom they will self-destruct.
Dean Vincent, West Kirby, England
What matters is has David Cameron now revealed all that can be revealed?
If not then God help him when the rest leaks out.
Michael Blatchford, Bath, uk
F rankly, polls or no polls, I will be very surprised if the next general election does not have the lowest turn out ever! If such an event happens, forecasts will have little authority. Anything might happen!
DAVID VINTER, LOUTH, LINCS., UK.
David Cameron would do well to campaign in the Clinton or Obama style - travel around the country talking to voters nationwide -- all parties -- highlighting the ineffective way in which this Government has handled the problems and wasted tax payer money. Their dis-service to the country has to be stressed so that the poor deluded voters who put them into office will realise they must now vote them out!
Unity within the Conservative party is also necessary and a show of strength and unity will further benefit the Conservative Party and bring them back into office.
Chips Westwood, Sarlat La Caneda, France
The Tories have definitely moved on from the Major years and David Cameron has made the biggest contribution to this move so far.
However, there are still many things they need to shake off.
The party needs to present itself as modern, young and energetic. It needs to engage students at universities across the country. This must be a positive social engagement. Above all, this engagement must be seen and felt by as many people as possible. Continuing to modernise the Tories - this is David Cameron's biggest task to date.
The Tories also need to be more confident in their policy choices and not be afraid of making tough, bold and well-publicised decisions.
The Tories need to show off their energy to their voters. This way the party will prove its readiness to lead the country. Only in this way will the party convince the floating voters not to throw their votes away in the LibDem direction and only in this will the party assure itself a bigger swing away from Labour.
Boris Rogatchevski, Edinburgh, UK
The opposition doesn't actually disagree with any major policies. With Cameron's drug-taking, it is become apparent that it doesn't even disagree with the tone of the government's liberal social agenda.
The government was elected on a pledge of "education, education, education" and then prioritised the NHS over schools and universities. Unfortunately shifting money from spending on health into investment in education will involve some unpopular choices. Effective education also means an effective social policy, on single parenting and, yes, drug-taking by teenagers.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
The Tories have definitely moved on from the Major years and David Cameron has made the biggest contribution to this move so far.
However, there are still many things they need to shake off.
The party needs to present itself as modern, young and energetic. It needs to engage students at universities across the country. This must be a positive social engagement. Above all, this engagement must be seen and felt by as many people as possible. Continuing to modernise the Tories - this is David Cameron's biggest task to date.
The Tories also need to be more confident in their policy choices and not be afraid of making tough, bold and well-publicised decisions.
The Tories need to show off their energy to their voters. This way the party will prove its readiness to lead the country. Only in this way will the party convince the floating voters not to throw their votes away in the LibDem direction and only in this will the party assure itself a bigger swing away from Labour.
Boris Rogatchevski, Edinburgh, UK
Cameron isn't doing that well at the polls given Labour's troubles.
But I think a lot people are 'hanging fire' on who they might vote for. The government is awaiting a hand over. Gordon Brown might be just what the electorate wants or he might be their worst nightmare. No one knows so everyone is waiting to make up their minds.
If Gordon Brown does well we will go back to the 2005 election result. if not the Tories will hit 40%. No one knows which way to jump yet.
Gareth Sutcliffe, London,
Cameron simply doesn't have what it takes to drag the polls upwards.
GeoffH, Cumbria,
Until the economy and especially the housing market are clearly seen to be in a serious mess and the blame can be reasonably blamed on the government, nothing much will change.
Most of NuLab's faults are only of real interest to the politically savvy or interested. Most people see politicians as corrupt, so cash for honours is a non issue outside the chattering shops. Brown's fiscal mess hasn't caught up with the general public yet. The NHS has improved for most, even though there is a lot of scepticism. ID cards and other labour fascism are supported by the mass of the people.
All the key issues that might provoke change haven't yet antagonised the electorate.
And the Tories offer nothig that will attract people not already inclined towards them.
Neil Murphy, cromer, uk
The fact of the matter is that if the Tories had Andy Pandy for a leader they would still be ahead in the polls. But if they had a REAL leader and not a milksop Hooray Henry like 'Dave' Cameron they would have destroyed this incompetent and useless Labour government years ago. What a tragedy that the Conservatives cannot come up with just one courageous and forthright politician who can articulate exactly what the majority of the electorate want to hear.
William D. Holmes, Derbyshire, England
Cameron refuses to talk about Europe. He will not pledge to reduce the size or influence of the state in the lives of the people. He will not stand up for Grammar Schools.
Cameron cannot attack blair on Party Funding because he is just as guilty. David Cameron will not come out against Road Charging and will not promise to cut taxes.
What is David Cameron for?
Vote for him under No Circumstances Whatsoever.
Alex Seymour, London, England
David Cameron may be the first Tory leader who stands a chance since John Major, but what we are seeing here is a man, constrained by his upper-class upbringings to the Conservatives. Infact, his (few) policies are what would be described as 'Blairite', but his party isn't. In short, his charisma might have a chance but his party are still reeling from the '97 Labour landslide and have not yet 'updated' themselves (Boris Johnson is still alive) and the Conservatives are lagging behind because the party is standing in Dave's way.
Jack Ogden, Odell, Bedfordshire, UK
Poor old Barack Obama. He has only just launched his campaign and he's got the backing of Rees-Mogg - the columnist's equivalent of the black death. And if all that even Rees-Mogg can say about Cameron is that's he's got his own hair, no wonder he's not doing so well in the polls. I doubt whether anyone's vote wil be swayed by the revelation that he's smoked cannabis. But the reminder that this story gives about Eton and his astonishingly privileged background seriously undermines Tory efforts to sell him as someone who understands the problems of the average family.
Albert Williams, Penzance , Cornwall
Sarah Clarke says of Barack Obama that "he's a lightweight black educated in a muslim school and a name like Obama ". While this is not relevant to the discussion of David Cameron I don't think a comment like this should go unchallanged. To say he is a lightweight black is clearly racist - the fact that he is black (well coffee colour really) is totally irrelevant to his qualities as a man and a politician. He may be inexperienced as a politician but that is not the same as lightweight. George Bush is 'lightweight' - intellectually not up to the demands of the role.
To criticise Obama because he spent a couple of years in a Muslim school is also ridiculous. Perhaps if Bush had spent a couple of years in a Muslim school he would have known better than to talk of a Crusade against terrorism. I have an open mind on Obama as a presidential candidate but being black and having some understanding of Islam make him better qualified not worse to lead an America that desperately needs to mend fences with the Muslim world.
Kevin Miller, Kent,
Why should it be deemed acceptable and natural that he broke both school regulations and british law.
I did not smoke cannabis, steal or commit any criminal offences whilst growing up, my parents taught me to respect the law and other people.
Is it too much to ask that the potential leader of our country to have led a non criminally offending life previous to office?
What other skeletons are still hiding in the closet and has his character changed from the privaleged young man who felt that rules and laws did not apply to him or his "chum's".
Peter, DARLINGTON,
Cameron is weak. This country will sink a lot lower until a saviour arrives on the scene.In the mean time I shall vote UKIP
steve byrne, bournemouth,
Instead of concentrating on irrelevant piffle, shouldn^t the media be homing in on the policy priorities of David Cameron..
Frank Greaney, Formby Liverpool, United Kingdom
This is the third time I've attempted to add my comment. There seems to be a conspiracy of censorship to prevent the airing of the view that less than brilliant polling for the Tories and David Cameron has nothing to do with their performance and everything to do with today's report from Civitas.
The report identifies Labour's performance in cretaing a welfare-dependent class amounting to one in three households; a class of "beholden voters". This is deliberate strategic Labour policy; create a permanent grip on power to enable the Labour political class to become a Nomenklatura sustained by the votes of the welfare-dependent and state employees. Paid for, of course, by the rest of us.
With current events in Norfolk as a reminder, turkeys are reluctant to vote for Christmas.
This is why Tory poll performance is weak and likely to remain so. It is the result of Labour policy to subvert democracy
Geoff H, Milnthorpe, UK
When you try to please everyone you finnish up by pleasing no one.
No one really cares what an over privileged school boy did or did not do.
We are nore interested in an end to unfair taxation such as the COUNCIL TAX.,
Please note Mr.Cameron.
Bernard Parke, Guildford,
The problem has all to do with history and the media, and nothing to do with Cameron's policies. British politics has always swung from one extreme to another - the current situation is no different! Consider this: what sort of person would follow an egotistical, aggressive Gordie, someone who has a reputation for not listening to others, who believes he is always right and that government should tax individuals to the hilt? Do you think a person who votes for Gordie is strong? I think not! Contrast Gordie with Cameron, and you will realise why Cameron is a winner!
jon, Twickenham, Middlesex
The best thing that can happen to the Conservative Party (as Matthew Parris has pointed out), is to come second in the next General Election, leaving Brown to deal with the consequences of his profligate spending in the Blair era. Furthermore, if Cameron secures a majority of votes and seats in England, but comes second due to Scottish votes propping up a Scottish Prime Minister, the pressure for constitutional change will become unstoppable. The Conservative Party would have a much greater chance of securing an overall majority for an English Parliament - for all that senior Conservatives publicly defend the Union, they cannot be oblivious to this fact.
Mark, Tonbridge, Kent
The biggest problem the Tories face is the cash for honours scandal. This is because, no matter how much worse Labour's crimes are than the Tories', the public doesn't percieve a difference. Once this scandal is out of the way, or results in charges, we can get back to talking about education, health and transport - which will see further big drops in Labour support.
The biggest problem with the Tories is that they got lost in the thick of thin things back in John Major's time and have never really re-emerged. Instead of talking about the themes of government, the proper domain of politicians, they keep talking about small things like regulatory detail, which is the proper domain of Civil Servants.
The theme missing from Cameron's conservatives is localism and 'power to the people'. They are already nibbling at it but perhaps are afraid of Brown copying it. The problem is that he may do so anyway and then they won't even get the credit for talking about it first.
Scary, Windsor, Berks
Electing a bunch of old Etonians selling the same draconian message and playing to the blue rinse brigade is about as much use to this country as another spurios war. Who are the conservatives why don' t they stop hiding behind the opportunistic Cameron with little depth and come out and tell us what it is they are actually selling. Most of us thinking Brits could'nt give a toss if smoked cannabis in fact in would probably endear him to us cos in reality who has'nt apart from the shire ites to busy banging up the local council estate youth for rebelling against the rich getting richer. As far as Obama is concerned in the words of another charismatic American " you cannot be serious" he's a lightweight black educated in a muslim school and a name like Obama please the red necks and the whole mid west will align with the Taliban first
Sarah Jane Clarke, London,
What I'm saying is not supported by any poll but I think that many conservatives like me would love to have a charismatic leader and would like David Cameron to be one. However, he's simply not appealing to me with his excessive emphasis on green issues and his inability to take a wiser and stronger stance on some delicate issues such as the Catholic adoption agencies. He doesn't seem like one who is going to solve problems and build bridges, only adhere to the latest fad.
Pete, London, UK
A i agree with your views on the poor results for the Tories in the latest polls.The reason for this is the public has seen thru Camerons hype and spin.Cameron lacks policies and substance. He cannot continue to hug hoodies and huskies and continue to promise everybody everything right up to the next election.Brown will create more problems for the Tories when he impliments more policies in his first 100 days.
bill rees, truro, uk
You need to take the "Eton" out of the boy. People will need to relate to him more as a real person. He still appears to talk down to people. Blair (Though I have always disliked him) has always had the ability to talk to people one to one. He managed to successfully take the "Fennes" out of the boy. It has never been a problem.
David Evans, Sevenoaks, Kent TN15 8LL
I think the simple reason that the Conservatives are not way ahead is that Cameron is just not actually that good. Yes he is young and personable, and if Labour continue to drive themselves over a cliff, then that may be enough. However I think many people see Cameron very much a Blair mark II - lots of spin, fluff and warm words, but little substance.
The comparison with Obama is laughable - a black man of humble origins rising to (maybe) challenge for the highest office in the land - compared with the Eton educated Cameron taking over a desperate Tory party not because he inspired them, but because of a cynical calculation that he was thier best hope of winning.
The next election may be about "time for a change" - but the question is whether a serious minded, slightly dour but sincere Scotsman might be more of a change than a soundbite spouting ex-PR man.
Nick, France,
The Tory lead in the polls is slim but perfectly understandable in the light of today's report from the think tank Civitas that "1 in 3 homes get most of their income in handouts" . Add the subste, national and local, and those private sector companies bank-rolled by the State (Capita etc) and you have, as the report puts it, "a policy designed to create beholden voters rather than independent people".
In short, the Labour political class has become the UK's Nomenklatura sustained, it is intended, permanently in charge on the backs of votes from this "beholden class" paid for by the rest of us.
Geoff H, Milnthorpe,
"He has greater intellectual force than David Cameron or than Tony Blair."
Oh dear, I cannot possibly agree with that quite mythical,spin statement, William. Were it so, the troops with Intelligence would have rallied around and carried him to the greater glory he deludes himself with, long before now.
MeThinks they see the frauds cast before them as pearls, as that which they really. In the old days, it was Red under the beds and moles in high places, nowadays the plunderers of wealth and intellectual property gather around the sofa in a little private Party honouring themselves and selling everything off cheap to save the dollar.
It is just not cricket, old boy.
One trusts that Dave the Rave realises that a bike is a bike is a bike and only a pleasant ride and a PMs journey requires a much greater Intellectual Engine to Power the Wealth of Nations machine to the Very Top for those picture perfect, Mountain Views in Absolute Virtual Control of the Vistas for to be Imagined Real.
amanfromMars, Seventh Heaven , Global Communications HQ
Over Cameron's attitude to the cannabis problem I have some worries now.
As to the more general worry R-M has, I think he has every right to worry that in such Labour-adverse times the Conservatives are flatlining below the crucial tipping point. I myself, previously stauch canervative, have departed from it as part of the pary's 'de-contamination'. It is still not too late for the party to come to its senses and espouse genuinely conservative policies, then I could hold my nose and vote for it.
Dr j Findlater , Carnforth,
David Cameron suffers two insurmountable difficulties. First, he is trying to copy the Blair model that has been amply shown to be hopeless, the 'form over substance, keep them in the dark, charisma wins all' approach. No one in the electorate will be taken in by that vacuous nonsense again. Second (sorry Lord R-M), his elitist Etonian background will turn off most of the voters, regardless of any merits it may have. Why can't the Tories see that it's time for New Conservatism? They have to dump the elitist baggage of the past, a process of weeding out the narrow minded and selfish that will take many years. Starting with an Etonian image-spinner with no discernable policies, just a veneer-thin populism, is not likely to overcome the obviously more egalitarian NL. Must try harder, with someone else. Must have policies that are relevant to the middle class; not everyone is on benefits. Must communicate solid, dependable and (reasonably) honest values; much less cynical spin and voter manipluation.
colin, Shrewsbury, UK
I think William Rees-Mogg is absolutely right. Very few voters will be influenced by the antics of David Cameron at the age of fifteen.
Blair learned how to win an election from Bill Clinton. Both are very good actors who set out to appleal to the widest spectrum of voters while mainly ignoring 'old Labour,' knowing that nothing would make most north of England and Scottish people vote Conservative.
David Hughes, Worthing, West Sussex
We are in a political mess, with the West Lothian question looming large for the next General election. We are talking percentages when we fail to see that our so-called democracy is weakenned with barely one in five of the electorate having given Labour absolute power. From an English perspective it is even worse with barely one in six of the electorate haven given support. This is where David Cameron can wake up English support and get the Conservative Party back in power.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
Cameron probably smoked dope when he was fifteen - who cares? This isn't news, this is smear tactics. How many of us could survive the same digging into our pasts - the answer would be not many - and they would be the conformists, the ones too scared to take risks, to think outside the box, to challenge authority. Is this what we want of our goverment?
We are human, the best of us learn from our mistakes, as he appears to have done.
I respect him for standing his ground - this isn't relevant to his current position and it isn't news. Get a life!
Mhairi, Edinburgh,