Wiliam Rees-Mogg
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The Labour Party could be facing a a landslide defeat on May 3 in the elections to the Scottish Parliament and the loss of more than 500 seats in local council elections in England. In the latest Sunday Times YouGov poll, the Conservatives have an eight-point lead over Labour, by 39 per cent to 31 per cent, and a 23 per cent lead over the Liberal Democrats. That would be sufficient for the Conservatives to win more than 300 parliamentary seats at a general election. These are some of the headline results of the weekend polls. They make bad reading for Labour and for the Lib Dems.
Three big questions arise from these polls. Can the Conservatives win enough seats in Parliament at the next general election to form the next Government? Can Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party win enough seats in the Scottish Parliament to form the next Government of Scotland? Will there be a serious challenge to Gordon Brown as the next leader of the Labour Party? If the answer to the first two questions is “yes”, the answer to the third may be “yes” as well.
Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of the Local Government Elections Centre at the University of Plymouth, are the leading statisticians of local government elections. They have recently published their Media Guide to the new Parliamentary Constituencies, an invaluable reference book that will be used by the BBC, ITN and Sky News at the next general election.
It is notoriously difficult to convert percentages of votes into percentages of seats. In the past three elections, changes in tactical voting in the marginal seats threw out even the most sophisticated electoral projections. However, Rallings and Thrasher are brave men. In their Appendix 8, they provide a formula for converting shares of votes into seats. If one applies this formula to the latest YouGov poll, the Conservatives would win 302 seats, Labour would win 261 seats and there would be 55 seats for the Liberal Democrats. The next Parliament will have 650 seats, of which one will be the Speaker’s; 325 seats will therefore constitute the overall majority. On current polls neither the Conservatives nor a Lib-Lab coalition would win an overall majority, though both would be quite close.
However, the Rallings-Thrasher formula may prove to be too favourable to the Lib Dems. The YouGov poll suggests that there has been a 6.5 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives since 2005. Such a swing would in theory give the Conservatives 26 seats which are at present held by the Lib Dems, of which 12 would be in the South West of England. One should probably adjust the numbers of Conservative and Lib Dem seats on the Rallings and Thrasher formula to make an allowance for these potential losses.
The polls suggest that there may be a change in tactical voting. So do the reports of Conservative canvassers for the local elections. In 1997 and 2001, and to a lesser extent in 2005, Lib Dem and Labour voters were united in giving a priority to getting the Tories out.
Now Conservative canvassers, at least in southern England, are finding that most of the disillusioned Labour voters, of whom there are quite a few, are moving directly across to the Conservatives, rather than shifting to the Lib Dems. The last time that happened was in 1979. The answer to the first question (will the Conservatives be able to form the next Government) is therefore that on current polls they are getting close to power, but that they still need a few more seats if they are to win an outright majority.
The second question is Scotland. Will May 3 be the crucial day on which the Scottish voters put the SNP into power in the Scottish Parliament? That would open the way for a referendum on Scottish independence. Scottish Opinion, in the Mail on Sunday, published a poll that gives the SNP 40 per cent of the constituency vote, Labour 28, and the Conservatives and Lib Dems about 15 each. Professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, suggests that this might produce 56 seats for the SNP, 40 for Labour, 17 for the Tories and 13 for the Lib Dems. There are 129 MSPs, so 65 seats constitutes a majority.
The SNP is therefore in much the same position in Scotland as the Conservatives are in Britain. On the current polls, the SNP needs another nine seats to win a majority. At Westminster, the Conservatives need about another 20 seats, on top of current expectations. Both parties have political momentum on their side, but the Conservatives may have to wait two or three years for the next general election. Of course, they may pick up further support if the next election is too long delayed. Equally, the SNP could pick up support between now and May 3. Momentum is a powerful political advantage.
The third question is Gordon Brown. He still has preponderant support for the leadership inside the Labour Party. The YouGov poll shows that he outscores David Miliband — who is the most credible of the other possible candidates — by five to one among Labour supporters. Mr Brown has strong links with the trade unions and in Parliament, though he has many more political enemies then Mr Miliband.
Among voters as a whole, Mr Brown is also ahead of Mr Miliband, but only by 43 per cent to 31 per cent. The killer question for Mr Brown is whether he is fit to be Prime Minister. Twenty-seven per cent think he is, but 57 per cent think he is not. At the moment Mr Brown is particularly unpopular for his taxation of pensions, a broad issue that affects a large number of voters. Pensioners have a high turnout at general elections.
Until a couple of weeks ago Mr Brown’s intellectual ability, his wide network of supporters, his dominance in Parliament and his leadership in Scotland made it very unlikely he would be defeated. After May 3, the Labour Party may have to recover from two serious electoral defeats, in Scotland and in England. Who knows whether the Labour Party will then go for a younger face? The Tories did with David Cameron, just as Labour did with Tony Blair.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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It seemed like most of the last Parliament had opinion polls showing the Lib Dems would be decimated at the last General Election (which had me worried), but they actually increased their number of MP's. Go figure....
George Flaxman, Bedford, UK
Judy from Bristol hints at a factor Brown should do well to heed. 90% of retiring Civil Servants, nurses, council workers and teachers or anyone else on a pension for government service will be worse off until they reach age 65 as a result of the budget, and they too are more likely to vote. In our eyes, Brown will go down in history as the great betrayer - the first Labour Chancellor to rob the poor to buy the votes of the rich.
David, Oliva, Valencia, Spain
Why the question?..The UK is ruled by the Peoples Republic of Brussels. I really must not snicker too much, we are being screwed by Socialists as well. Lead by Granny Pelosi, who reallly does think she can walk on water.
Desmond taylor, Houston, xasUSA Tec
I for one hope that the SNP win their vote for independance. They'll be just as glad to leave the union as we'll be to wave them goodbye.
The suggestion that Labour voters will vote for the Green Party may be true for the Metropolitan clique but I suspect far more of them will switch to the BNP.
The thing which undermines Gordon Brown most is that he's percieved to be 'Tricky' - a desirable trait for a barrister but not a leader and even less for a Prime Minister.
We all know a leader when we see one and - like him or loath him - Tony Blair is the only leader the Labour Party has.
Martin Carnaffin, Nottingham, Notts
Brown should resign now and forget about becoming PM ever. As a Chancellor he first successfully took the credit for seperation of Interest Rates from Government to the Bank of England - a process which was already initiated by the Conservative Chancellor Ken Clark. He then destroyed the "best pension schemes in Europe and probably in the World" by the introduction of new anti- Pension fund taxation against the advice of the better economic advice of National experts. His Treasury Ministers first tried to avoid telling the truth about this but were foiled by a smart Press but even then again tried to smother the true impact by releasing the truth on a "bad news day" when Parliament was in recess and he was conveniently out of the country. Brown is a man clearly not to be trusted by the electorate and I reiterate that he should resign now. The Pensions impact, by the way, will affect all of the population who have subscribed to company schemes.
Terry Scholes, Aquitaine, France
The article has not factored in the fact that it is almost impossible under the current voting system for any one party to gain a simple majority in the Scottish Parliament. Howevever if the SNP gets 56 seats or thereabouts it will only need the Greens and a few independents to form an administration. Professor Curtice also overestimates the number of seats that Labour willhold on these figures. I predict they will collect in the low thirties and the Greens will beat them on the top up seats. I believe the Greens wil get between 8 and 12 seats (which will not help the SNP either) If the SNP has 56 seats you would in fact have Scottish Parliament with an in built Independence majority as the Greens, both the Socialist parties and several of the independents are in favour of Independence
David McEwan Hill, Dunoon, AQrgyll, UK
I agree with Judy from Liverpool as I am in a similar position. I was made redundant and being 50+ have found it extremely difficult to find a new position. After applying for over 100 jobs I now have a part-time job which just about covers my bills. Obviously this means a reduced pension. Now to add insult to injury, next year I will be even worse off with the new 'tax cuts'! So in the vital years before retirement I am struggling, what will happen when I reach 65! The government say that people need to work longer - how if employers won't take them on?
joan, bristol,
To Judy in Liverpool,
Please remember Margaret Thatcher`s pre May 1979 election slogan "Labour isn`t working". Nothing really changes does it ?
Denver Watt, Osaka, Japan
I am a disillusioned labour voter considering what to do next time. In my view Brown shares the responsibility with Blair for the mistakes of the last ten years, so if he is Labour leader they will not have my vote. Like many I had thought that I might skip the Lib Dems and go straight to voting conservative for the first time in my life, but I can't see David Cameron as a serious Prime Minister. I might vote Labour if they elect David Milliband as leader. The option not mentioned in your article is for disillusioned labour voters to switch to the the Green Party, and if there is a Brown/versus Cameron election that is what I will do. I would not be surprised to find many voters doing likewise.
Sheila, Leicester,
Mr Brown indicates that pension raid on the pensions was in the interest of the country. I am wondering why he still has a final salary and index linking for the public sector and for himself in particular.Which country is going to fund this I wonder since he says that he has resolved the pension problem by taxing the pension funds-Reminds me of a good book called animal farm
V Rajadurai, London,
If Rees-Mogg and many of the anti-scots will care to note, every poll conducted in Scotland indicate that majority of Scots do not want independence - it will not happen Tony G. A referendum, if the SNP ever wins will meet with a resounding NO for independence.
The contempt shown towards Gordon Brown - a man I still have the deepest respect for is clouding the judgment of many English comentators including Rees-Mogg. Every problem the government encounters must be blamed on Gordon Brown (an easy and soft target) be it hospitals, prison or climate change or housing etc. Nothing on the saintly English Secretaries of State.
What wins my respect for GB is his principled stand on all policy issues. I am convinced he does everything for the good and best interest of the nation and that is what will place him in good stead, ahead of David Cameron (who incidendantly has Scottsh ancestry), to win the next general election. Voters are much cleverer than Rees-Mogg would like to believe.
Tonye O., Dalgety Bay, Scotland
There are 15 million people in the UK who are opposed to ID Cards and threaten to go to jail rather than obey New Labour. There are around 20 million who will be adversely affected by Browns Pension Tax. A high percentage of people are opposed to road toll tax. The combination of all these must be equivalent to a poll tax on steroids in reducing the New Labour vote. This does not include any allowance for the effects of sleaze and corruption in New Labour and their incompetence in education and the NHS. New Labour should be very scared of the likely next general election results.
Derek Emery, Bedworth, UK
I am amazed that serious commentators never mention the 5 million 50+ who have lost their jobs, cannot keep themselves and have now been forced to sell their homes and spend all their savings. These people HAVEN'T taken volutary retirement, they are unemployed but because they are keeping themselves they don't show up on unemployment statistcs. It isn't just pensioners that are having a bad time under this Labour Government. The 50+ age group are suffering the most blatant discrimination of any other group in Britain but not a word is being said. They too have a vote and I sincerely hope they exercise it at the next election. I didn't expect to lose everything that I had worked for because business and Government deem that I no longer have a right to paid employment. The situation is ignored, denied and will lead to bigger problems in future for the generation that is currently doing the discriminating.
judy, Liverpool, england
Brown is the key to Tory success at the next election he is now perceived as pompous and over baring and is unliked by most. Added to the general feeling of total dismay with the poor performance from this government who have shown a complete inability to get anything right. Without Brown the next election would be close, with him leading Labour the next election is a gift for the Conservatives and I for one cannot wait to see the back of this sorry mess of a government.
D Case, Newquay, uk
Rees-Mogg does not comment on the number of people who will choose to stay away from the polls at the next General Election. They will include those who see Cameron as a Blair clone, unable and/or unwilling to tackle the fundamental issues facing Britain, but heavy on PR.
The best outcome may be a narrow win for New Labour and the Lib/Dems. They would have to cope with the mess that Blair/Brown have created, and the Tories may use the opportunity of that defeat to dispense with leadership of the toffs.
We might then get a real alternative to Labour, just as we did in 1979. While many would not wish to see another period of deceitful, incompetent and wasteful government from Labour, the best medium term outcome for England following the departure of the Scots from the UK will be government by those who can deliver results - and that excludes most of the senior politicians in 2007.
Tony G, Harrogate,
A fascinating scenario would be for the SNP to form a coalition in Scotland with the LIb-Dems and the Conservatives to follow that with a UK coalition with the Lib-Dems. Labour's deep unpopularity in Scotland will have a knock-on effect in England which will encourage the Lib-Dems to look to David Cameron as their best hope for gaining some power at Westminster. Interesting times indeed.
As for Mr Brown, he could find his Scottish fiefdom broken and scattered on 4th May. As the Japanese say, "Bring down the horse, you bring down the rider."
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
Independence for England should be the rallying cry - with the removal of welsh and scottish labour seats any election result in england would result in an implosion for the Labour Party. That day cannot come soon enough!
Simon, london,
To David Bell,
Have you not heard of the English world racialist not the Americanism racist. As George Bernard Shaw said America and England were two countries devided by their language by which he meant that the colonial version was inferior.
To others who seem to welcome the partition of the U.K, or other countries , i.e. Italy , let me remind you that this would be welcomed by the EU bureaucrats as this would weaken national identity and further their aim of the concentration of power in the EU institutions. I doubt if the SNP, Scottish or English natiomalists would really welcome this. As an Ulsterman who is proud to be British I would say let`s keep
the Union and remember what we have in common whilst not forgetting our regional identities.
Denver Watt, Osaka, Japan
Too true, Carol Banks; Brown is the architect of this farcical thing called devolution. Scotland and England need their own sovereign parliaments. When Labour are dumped from Holyrood, the nonsense of allowing Scottish-based MPs to decide purely English matters will become more acute. This is especially true of acting as lobby fodder to put through legislation that they daren't introduce in Scotland.
James Brown, Ayr, Scotland
ifScotland wishes to be independant; good luck to them . I will go with that and contribute to the rebuilding of Hadrian's Wall!!
english, harrogate, ENGLAND
The sense of discontent in the country is quite remarkable given Brown's ten years of 'successful' economic management. One certainly gets the impression that the electorate throughout the United Kingdom have had its fill of Blair and Co.
The only reason why the SNP is making the running in Scotland is because it is the only credible alternative to Labour. In England that alternative now is the Conservative Party.
If Blair's legacy were to include the breakup of the Union, he should go down in history as the most disastrous premier of at least 100 years.
With his former flatmate Charlie the unelected Chancellor and their relentless 'modernisation' programmes, there is barely any aspect of our public services and constitution that is in a better state now than in 1997.
MarkS, Leeds,
The very nice thing is that under the UK constitution it's possible to contemplate a separation of one part of the union from another without having a civil war. Just tweak the rules a bit and it's done.
Within the EU there's no particular reason why Scotland shouldn't go it alone, England would be more than happy to be relieved of the socialist yoke that comes with the union. Let Wales go as well I say.
John Small, Faversham, UK
If no party has an overall majority after the next general election we might see a most welcome move away from polarized politics and too much focus on differentiation. Example: a Conservative-Lib Dem aliance would lead to more moderate, middle-of-the-road policies with the dinosaur Tory right consigned to oblivion. At the same time, the alliance could cherry pick the best of Lib Dem thinking.
Above all else, let's pray that the UK electorate wises up to politico carpetbaggers and spin -sters like Blair.
Leigh Vernier, Riyadh, KSA
No doubt a sound review but it is surely all academic. In academic terms, the probability of Labour winning a 4th term has to be exceedingly small so does the immediate Labour leadership really matter?
Henry Percy, London, UK
What does Cameron and the tories stand for?
Former tory, Darlington,
Could commentators please apply a little rule of thumb in these matters. Try substituting the word Scottish with Pakistani, or African then read your comment. If it sounds racist its because it is. Now put the word Scottish back in, and ask if you really mean to be that. Racism is unhelpful in relations between Scotland and England.
David Bell, LARKHALL, UK
The simple fact is that to qualify to begin to be the next Prime MInister in Westminster, Gordon Brown first needs to first find a new constituency to represent that is south of the Border.
It is crazy for him to expect to still represent a Scottish seat if there is ever the possibility of the SNP being elected, and this followed in 2 years by a Referendum for separation.
At the core of it all is the defence of the realm that must never be put at risk.
There is always the possibility that a future Scottish Government with possible Green leanings could well stop our nuclear powered warships from returning to sea?
Those ships could even be at Rosyth in Gordon Brown's present constituency.
One solution would be for Gordon Brown to first do a deal with Tony Blair.
Gordon Brown take over Sedgefield in exchange for guaranteeing Tony Blair immunity from prosecution reference his conduct in the war with Iraq.
Michael Blatchford, Bristol, UK
All I can say is that I agree with the above comments and couldn't have put it any better. Say NO NO NO.
Barry Holmes, Christchurch, New Zealand
Both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party are unpopular among many of the expatriate community as a result of their persistent failure to index-link the UK state pensions of those who have retired in former Commonwealth countries. Only the Liberal Party has expressed a willingness to put right this serious injustice.
David Harper, Sydney, Australia
We are very likely living in a period of quite enormous change.England is now facing the reality of being a one-party state as the Labour vote in Scotland appears to be in meltdown.I just hope they don't get any more Thatchers.
Alan Clayton, Argyll, Scotland
Brown must not be allowed to impose his Scottish socialist policies onto England. We will not tolerate being used as Labour rats by a Scottish MP who has no democratic right to govern England, now that Scotland has its own Parliament where domestic policy is decided.
NO to Brown as ruler of England. He can only be PM when England also has her own Parliament. Its a mess, but a mess he made himself. He must now suffere the consequences of the dogs dinner he called devolution.
Carol Banks, carlisle, England
but brown cant be the pm of a uk without scotland he represents a scottish seat surely he would not dump his constituency ?
david, edinburgh,